Testing of Psychic Claims: Success Rates?

[Vanessa444]

Hi Everyone,

I'm new to the website and I'm doing some research on claims by psychics on their success rates. I've been hearing about a test of some kind - which may or may not involve John Edwards (or is it Edward?). The test supposedly proved that one psychic in a group of psychics had a significantly higher success rate than the others.
I've now heard this story from two people. The second one said that it showed up on an episode of something called the Brain - but which episode? And is it available? I asked if there had been a response from the skeptical community and was told 'yes' but the person couldn't remember what it was.
Does anyone know what I'm talking about?
Other than this episode, I'm interested in knowing about any attempts to test psychic claims - in addition to Randi's. I will explain what I'm doing in more detail at some point.

Many thanks!

Vanessa

 

[Wolrab]

Hi Vanessa, welcome to the forum. I believe a search for Dean Radin (sp?) will help with the studies. They have been done over here many times.

Robert Lancaster, a member here, runs a website, www.stopsylvia.com, that deal with Sylvia Brown's accuracey claims.

 

[Ignosticist]

I'm new to the website and I'm doing some research on claims by psychics on their success rates. I've been hearing about a test of some kind - which may or may not involve John Edwards (or is it Edward?). The test supposedly proved that one psychic in a group of psychics had a significantly higher success rate than the others.

John Edwars is, as any self proclaimed psychic so far, unable to show any significant powers at all: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Edward#Criticism_and_controversy

The "success rate" of any and all "psychics", is, so far, indistinguishable from mere chance, and unable to work once the psychic has to work under double blind experiment conditions

 

[Pixel42]

I've been hearing about a test of some kind - which may or may not involve John Edwards (or is it Edward?). The test supposedly proved that one psychic in a group of psychics had a significantly higher success rate than the others.

I've not heard of such a test, but it's worth pointing out that if you test a lot of people with the "beat chance odds of X" type of test that JREF usually uses one is quite likely to score better than the rest by pure chance, even if none have any genuine psychic ability.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

Hi Everyone,

I'm new to the website and I'm doing some research on claims by psychics on their success rates. I've been hearing about a test of some kind - which may or may not involve John Edwards (or is it Edward?). The test supposedly proved that one psychic in a group of psychics had a significantly higher success rate than the others.

His name is John Edward (the politician is John Edwards). Just follow the Wiki link that Ignosticist posted. I assume you have been hearing about the Gary Schwartz book mentioned there. You can follow the footnotes (which leads you to http://www.csicop.org/si/show/how_not_to_test_mediums_critiquing_the_afterlife_experiments/)

Apparently the “History” channel had a show called “The Brain” that had a segment in 2001 that dealt with John Edward (but not critically or skeptically). I have not seen it. It doesn’t appear to be available online. It looks like DVDs of the show are available if you want to buy them.

While you are at the John Edward wikipedia site, you will find links to CSI, formerly CSICOP (csicop.org), and IIG (iigwest.com). the wiki article mentions James Underdown, who has worked with JREF on JREF Million Dollar Challenge applications, which you can read about on these forums (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=8). IIG has also conducted tests for their own challenge, which you can read about on the Investigations section of their website.

Here’s a hint:

Nobody has come close to passing a even a preliminary challenge or proper double-blind study proving anything paranormal.

For some reason, almost all of the people claiming great paranormal powers refuse to prove that they can do what they claim they can do (under controlled conditions where they can’t cheat or just count the hits and forget the misses). Imagine that.

 

[Brian-M]

Psychics manage to get impressive "success" rates by the following techniques...

• Predict things that happen fairly frequently, without being overly specific. (Eg. I predict a devastating earthquake by the end of the decade.)
• Make various ominous but vague claims, and then interpret subsequent events as being the subject of the claim. (Eg. Anything about the predictions of Nostradamus.)
• Backpedal, to turn a failed claim into a success. (Eg. Oh, but when I said you don't need to worry because they'd find your missing daughter, I didn't mean that she would be found alive.)
• Conveniently "forget" failed claims when tallying your success rate, especially when there's little public record of the claim. Conversely, suddenly "remember" claims that were never publicly announced when working out the numbers.

Of course, where the psychic is only giving the figure without providing an itemized list of predictions, there's always the much simpler technique of pulling the figure out of their excretory orifice.

ETA: And for TV performances there's also the very effective technique of editing. If a TV psychic does a three-hour performance, which is used as the basis of a one-hour TV program, guess which bits will get cut? The bits where they get everything wrong. And with very clever editing, even a failure can be made to look like a success.

 

[Mojo]

I've been hearing about a test of some kind - which may or may not involve John Edwards (or is it Edward?). The test supposedly proved that one psychic in a group of psychics had a significantly higher success rate than the others.

Were there 20 of them?

 

[xtifr]

Psychics manage to get impressive "success" rates by the following techniques...

That's for people who predict the future. John Edward is more the talks-to-ghosts type, as I understand it, which involves things like cold reading^WP. (The Wikipedia article covers the highlights fairly well.)

 

[marplots]

That's for people who predict the future. John Edward is more the talks-to-ghosts type, as I understand it, which involves things like cold reading^WP. (The Wikipedia article covers the highlights fairly well.)

I never understood that. What's the value of telling me things I already know?

 

[Susan Gerbic]

While you are at the John Edward wikipedia site, you will find links to CSI, formerly CSICOP (csicop.org), and IIG (iigwest.com). the wiki article mentions James Underdown, who has worked with JREF on JREF Million Dollar Challenge applications, which you can read about on these forums (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=8). IIG has also conducted tests for their own challenge, which you can read about on the Investigations section of their website.

Just want to point out that in this short thread we have mentioned Wikipedia many times. It is a valuable resource that we use constantly. If you come across (this is meant for all of you, not just the OP) please consider updating the Wiki page so that we can keep the psychic pages strong. When someone is looking for a quick bit of information we normally turn to Wikipedia for answers, we need to make sure that these are up to date, with links to skeptic articles.

You can find all about this project at Guerrilla Skepticism on Wikipedia blog.

Note: James Underdown, CSICOP and IIG all have nice Wikipedia pages. With lots of links to click on.

BTW - Everyone seems to have a problem with the "s" on John Edward (and Mark Edward)'s names. Think of them as performers and realize they are just using their middle name. The politician John Edwards is using his "real" name.

Even better cut this out and put it on your fridge.

 

[Ladewig]

I never understood that. What's the value of telling me things I already know?

Plus, it is not even interesting things that the relative already knows.

"I used to golf a lot."
"We used to tell jokes to each other."
"My name starts with 'H'"

Really? That's the best thing you can think of to say after seeing the mysteries of the universe from the afterlife? Would it spoil some vast eternal plan for someone to say

"Yes, your Uncle Jeff was a jerk about those baseball tickets, but he's about to be diagnosed with cancer so please consider reconciling with him."

"I buried some jewelry in the back yard under the oak tree."

or even

"The baseball cap that you lost is under the spare tire in the trunk"

"The lawn mower you want will go on sale next week."

 

[xtifr]

I never understood that. What's the value of telling me things I already know?

You'd be surprised. When you're dealing with vulnerable people who have recently experienced a major loss, they're, well, extremely vulnerable. So there's all kinds of scams that can be run that start with telling them things they already know.

Aside from faith healers, I don't think there's any type of psychic worse than these predators. With the astrologers and palm readers and whatnot, I can kind of feel like the victims get what they deserve, but these guys are preying on people at their most vulnerable, who might otherwise have had more sense.

 

[Jeff Corey]

www.csicop.org/si/show/john_edward_hustling_the_bereaved

 

[Sherlock]

Tested psychic feats untrue for Noreen Renier

Among global psychics Noreen Renier has pushed some incredible tested paranormal outcomes but they proved to be charades. Yet dozens of web sites continue to link or reference the academic centers, paranormal research labs, and incredible tested outcomes that were based on her marketing promos and deceptions. It's amazing what three decades of glorified shams can accomplish. I've even had major academic personnel swear that Renier was credible in accomplishing major tested paranormal feats. Take a look at http://www.gpinquirygroup.com/gpinquirygroup/Bogus%20psychic%20tests%20and%20academic%20status.html for more and also the claims she pushed in 2012 at the Bill Clinton School of Public Service (videotaped) at http://www.gpinquirygroup.com/gpinquirygroup/clinton school.html

 

[Jarlaxle]

I was pretty skeptical until about ten years ago...then I spoke to someone, a friend's great-aunt...she KNEW. There is no other way to describe it. She knew things that she could not have found in any normal way. She knew...

The time of my birth to the minute. (I didn't know she was correct until I called my mother & asked.)
I was inseparable from a large, long-haired, light-colored cat as a young child. (I was...Oscar was 14lbs of light-gray and white feline who basically adopted me as his surrogate kitten.)
Liz and I were married outdoors (true, in a park), and there were only five people at my wedding. (My wife and myself, our respective best friends/witnesses, the judge performing the ceremony.)
One of the people was very ill. (The judge had cancer and died about six months later.)
The male line in my family tend to die relatively young. (My great-grandfather died of a heart attack at 38, my grandfather of a stroke at 46, my great-uncle of cancer at 29. No male has lived past 65 in at least seven generations.)

 

[JimOfAllTrades]

I was pretty skeptical until about ten years ago...then I spoke to someone, a friend's great-aunt...she KNEW. There is no other way to describe it. She knew things that she could not have found in any normal way. She knew...

I suspect if we had the transcripts of the exact conversation(s) that took place we would all still be skeptical.

For example:
Friend's Aunt: Were you born sometime during the afternoon?
You: Yes, amazing! Sometime just after noon.
Friend's Aunt: Yes I can see that. It was at 12:30

And later…
You: Mom, what time was I born?
Your Mother: Just after lunch, I've told you that.
You: But was it at 12:30?
Your Mother: Yes, that sounds right.
You: Amazing!

 

[sadhatter]

I was pretty skeptical until about ten years ago...then I spoke to someone, a friend's great-aunt...she KNEW. There is no other way to describe it. She knew things that she could not have found in any normal way. She knew...

The time of my birth to the minute. (I didn't know she was correct until I called my mother & asked.)
I was inseparable from a large, long-haired, light-colored cat as a young child. (I was...Oscar was 14lbs of light-gray and white feline who basically adopted me as his surrogate kitten.)
Liz and I were married outdoors (true, in a park), and there were only five people at my wedding. (My wife and myself, our respective best friends/witnesses, the judge performing the ceremony.)
One of the people was very ill. (The judge had cancer and died about six months later.)
The male line in my family tend to die relatively young. (My great-grandfather died of a heart attack at 38, my grandfather of a stroke at 46, my great-uncle of cancer at 29. No male has lived past 65 in at least seven generations.)

1) Exact minute of birth? As judged by? The time your head left your mother, the time your feet left your mother? The time the cord was cut? What was written on the chart at the hospital?

2) Pretty common, even the color, mine was named Sam.

3) A lot of people do. ( also see commentary at bottom.)

4) In a gathering of that size, someone is going to be "Very Ill." if for no other reason that people's definitions of very ill vary. If someone had a cold she could have said , " Well that is quite ill to me.". No way to lose on this one.

5) Males die younger, historically, and the further back one goes in history, the more **** the conditions were.

And the most important part, it was A RELATIVE OF A FRIEND! You knew your friend well enough that you had an opportunity to meet not only a grandparent, or parent, but a great aunt. And you assume that never, ever could some of this information, or at least enough that she could make a very educated guess, get through to her? That is just dismally naive.

 

[Jarlaxle]

OK, I dug out the recording Liz made. (This whole thing was her idea.) The quality is only fair, especially with her heavy accent, but it is still mostly understandable. (She is Irish.)

She gave the exact time on the birth certificate, accurate to the MINUTE. (10:43pm) I COULD NOT have given that to her, for the simple reason that I DID NOT KNOW IT until I called my mother and asked.
Her exact words were "absolutely inseparable", and she described Oscar (her exact words were: "large, very long-haired, light gray, white on the bottom, large paws") to a tee.
An outdoor wedding is common enough (though probably not in New England in March), but "a lot" of people have a marriage ceremony with FIVE people?! Note: that is (or was then, may have changed in 16 years) the minimum number legally possible, at least in this state.
Her exact words were "One of the (garbled, probably "wedding") party was very ill...did not survive the year."
Again, her exact words were: "While the women life a very long time (also true...my great grandmother lived to 94, her sister to 101, my grandmother is still going at 93), the male line does not. Great-grandfather, grandfather...his brother the shortest."

It was a relative he hadn't seen in ten plus years (she lived in Ireland...still does, for all I know), she was visiting around Christmas. While she was there, Liz and I were invited to a Christmas party. We stayed to help clean up, she spent maybe half an hour talking with Liz (I was working with my friend in another room). No idea what happened between she and Liz, but the end result was a reading.

 

[marplots]

OK, I dug out the recording Liz made. (This whole thing was her idea.) The quality is only fair, especially with her heavy accent, but it is still mostly understandable. (She is Irish.)

She gave the exact time on the birth certificate, accurate to the MINUTE. (10:43pm) I COULD NOT have given that to her, for the simple reason that I DID NOT KNOW IT until I called my mother and asked.
Her exact words were "absolutely inseparable", and she described Oscar (her exact words were: "large, very long-haired, light gray, white on the bottom, large paws") to a tee.
An outdoor wedding is common enough (though probably not in New England in March), but "a lot" of people have a marriage ceremony with FIVE people?! Note: that is (or was then, may have changed in 16 years) the minimum number legally possible, at least in this state.
Her exact words were "One of the (garbled, probably "wedding") party was very ill...did not survive the year."
Again, her exact words were: "While the women life a very long time (also true...my great grandmother lived to 94, her sister to 101, my grandmother is still going at 93), the male line does not. Great-grandfather, grandfather...his brother the shortest."

It was a relative he hadn't seen in ten plus years (she lived in Ireland...still does, for all I know), she was visiting around Christmas. While she was there, Liz and I were invited to a Christmas party. We stayed to help clean up, she spent maybe half an hour talking with Liz (I was working with my friend in another room). No idea what happened between she and Liz, but the end result was a reading.

Do you think she's interested in making a million bucks?

 

[Jarlaxle]

I think she's dead. If alive, she's be 80+. I emailed him to ask about her and do not expect a reply before tomorrow afternoon.