Space Colonization, A hippy dream

[Morchella]

The talk about justifying the NASA budget and continuing the space program often waxes about space colonization. I think those people watch too much Star Trek. We are never getting off this planet and we better learn to live and take care of it without the silly pipe dream of going somewhere else. We evolved here and we are stuck here. The closest star is 3 light years away. The cost for such an expedition would drain the national budget for years. The whole dream involves wasting this planet and moving on. Kind of the slash and burn exploration. Forget all that. We are going extinct right here.

 

[Dragonrock]

The talk about justifying the NASA budget and continuing the space program often waxes about space colonization. I think those people watch too much Star Trek. We are never getting off this planet and we better learn to live and take care of it without the silly pipe dream of going somewhere else. We evolved here and we are stuck here. The closest star is 3 light years away. The cost for such an expedition would drain the national budget for years. The whole dream involves wasting this planet and moving on. Kind of the slash and burn exploration. Forget all that. We are going extinct right here.

Tell you what, you go live (or die) in a cave feeling sorry for yourself, and I'll go invent a nuclear propulsion system that can travel 3 lightyears in under ten years. Years ago, before the creation of computers, someone suggested that the government save money by closing the patent office because everything has already been invented. You don't know what will be created in 1000 years or 100 or 10 or next year or even tomorrow. But, you are probably just trying to get a rise out of people here, so, have a nice day and see you on Mars!!

 

[Michael Redman]

Yes, we should stay in the Old World. Colonizing the New World is impossible.

 

[Frostbite]

I think it's a natural thing and just a question of time before mankind explores space. Looking forward to space exploration has nothing to do with ignoring our earthly issues, they're not even contradictory. The rapid growth of the population proves that it could be physically impossible for Earth to house all of us, and our fate is often determined by our collective curiosity, in this case, exploring space and starting franchises.

 

[Dragonrock]

I think it's a natural thing and just a question of time before mankind explores space. Looking forward to space exploration has nothing to do with ignoring our earthly issues, they're not even contradictory. The rapid growth of the population proves that it could be physically impossible for Earth to house all of us, and our fate is often determined by our collective curiosity, in this case, exploring space and starting franchises.

I believe that it's also a natural urge of any species. Adapt to new environments to increase the chance of survival. IMO we have to go because seeing what's around the corner is something that our nature demands of us.

 

[RichardR]

The rapid growth of the population proves that it could be physically impossible for Earth to house all of us, and our fate is often determined by our collective curiosity, in this case, exploring space and starting franchises.

the United Nations estimate that we will only be 12 billion in 120 years

Wouldn't it be more sensible to try to limit the population growth on Earth than to plan to continue growing and to expand to other planets?

 

[Morchella]

Dragonrock
I bet you would want a tie die space suit too. Nuclear propulsion? Feynman would turn over in his grave.

 

[Occasional Chemist]

Wouldn't it be more sensible to try to limit the population growth on Earth than to plan to continue growing and to expand to other planets?

We can't do both? Plus, there's that old saying about putting all our eggs in one basket ...

 

[RichardR]

We can't do both? Plus, there's that old saying about putting all our eggs in one basket ...

Perhaps we could. But “The rapid growth of the population proves that it could be physically impossible for Earth to house all of us” was being used as a reason for us to go to space, and I am saying that isn’t a very good reason if we can simply control our population better.

 

[Occasional Chemist]

But “The rapid growth of the population proves that it could be physically impossible for Earth to house all of us” was being used as a reason for us to go to space, and I am saying that isn’t a very good reason if we can simply control our population better.

I'd think we would have to have population control techniques that would work well - at least on a small scale - before we could think about colonizing the solar system. (Some might say we could already do this...)

 

[Aoidoi]

Dragonrock
I bet you would want a tie die space suit too. Nuclear propulsion? Feynman would turn over in his grave.

Naw, I'm pretty sure a colored space suit would mess with the thermal properties... oh, wait, you're just trolling. Nevermind.

 

[FireGarden]

J. Richard Gott tries a bit of prediction in his book "Time Travel in Einstein's universe"

On the future of the space program he says (paraphrasing):
It's unlikey that we are living at the very beginning of the space program. Or at the very end. In fact, if you divide the history (past and future) of the space program in to 40 parts (each representing 2.5%) then there is a 95% chance that we are living in the middle bit (2.5% from the beginning and end)

So the final age of the space program, could be as much as forty times it's current age. (That's the maximum, if we are not in the first 2.5%).

Sputnik was 1957
2003 - 1957 = 46 years
46 * 40 = 1840 years

So if, as Gott says is likely, we are in that middle 95% of the space flight's history then space flight will last in total 1840 years, at most. If you do this to estimate the longevity of humanity, (You can also find a minimum based on us being in the mid-95% of human history) you will find that humanity outlives space flight. (so robots don't need to take over!!)

He says it worked for the Berlin Wall!
You have to pick a random moment in the life of a system for it to work at all. And it's only right 95% of the time.

Of course, it always possible to beat the odds!!

 

[bjornart]

J. Richard Gott tries a bit of prediction in his book "Time Travel in Einstein's universe"

On the future of the space program he says (paraphrasing):
It's unlikey that we are living at the very beginning of the space program. Or at the very end. In fact, if you divide the history (past and future) of the space program in to 40 parts (each representing 2.5%) then there is a 95% chance that we are living in the middle bit (2.5% from the beginning and end)

You're kidding! There's a 95% chance we're in the middle 95% of the space program?

The whole "truth" here is that there's a 95% chance the space program has between 2 and 1840 years left.

 

[Vorticity]

Nuclear propulsion? Feynman would turn over in his grave.

The irony of this statement is just too delicious! I hold in my hand Feynman's book Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman!, in which he describes how after the war, they sent a guy from the patent office to talk to all of the Los Alamos scientists about possible applications of this new concept of nuclear power. When the guy talked to Feynman, he proposed, among other things, a nuclear submarine, a nuclear airplane, a nuclear power plant, and a nuclear rocket. While some of these things had already been thought of, the nuclear rocket one was new. I quote:

From Surely You're Joking Mr. Feynman
nuclear reactor...you have hydrogen go through the thing... Zoom! - it's a rocket!

And so Feynman got his name on the first patent for a nuclear rocket! Thus he actually invented nuclear propulsion!
Do your homework.

 

[Advocate]

I see no reason to believe we will never achieve extraterrestrial or even extrasolar colonies. There is nothing in the basic science of doing so that prevents us. At this point it is basically an engineering question. I doubt we will be able to establish any such colonies in the lifetime of any of us here today, especially any colonies outside the solar system. But that doesn't mean we never will. In fact if humanity manages to survive long enough, I think it is almost inevitable that we WILL do so.

 

[FireGarden]

You're kidding! There's a 95% chance we're in the middle 95% of the space program?

The whole "truth" here is that there's a 95% chance the space program has between 2 and 1840 years left.

Thanks, bjornart
But I can be pedantic too!

If we are about to begin the final 2.5% of the space program, then the 46 years we've had so far represent 39 times that final stage. So there is 46/39 = 1.17 years left.

Similarly, if we've just finished the first 2.5% then there is
39*46=1794 years left to go
(Total age = that plus another 46)

At least we agree that the initial premise is beyond doubt!


By the way,
I hope we beat the odds.
I'm a hippie that's watched to much Star Trek!!

 

[zakur]

"Our expansion into the universe is not just an expansion of men and machines. It is an expansion of all life, making use of man's brain for her own purpose." —Freeman Dyson

"The energy and mass needed for uplifting humanity must come from elsewhere—space. And it is quite foolish, in the long run, for us to do messy, polluting things in this thin shell of vulnerable air and water which gave birth to us all. We're fouling our nest. But a smart bird learns to fly." —Gregory Benford

"But what's best about the terraformation (of Mars) scheme is the very madness of the thing, its folie de grandeur. At a moment when our frontiers are vanishing, it challenges humanity to step bravely into the abyss and claim a destiny as a galactic species, as the founders of the first interplanetary civilization." —Brad Darrach and Steve Petranek

"The question is not whether we will go to Mars. We will go. The question is when, and then how and who." —Brian O'Leary

"We may not go to Mars for science, but science will be well served by our going to Mars. And this process, more than any short-range political or social or idealogical motivation that actually justifies the budget, will provide the ultimate payoff in our understanding of Mars, of all hard-surface planets in general—the past, present, and future of all potential planetary habitats for human beings. —James Oberg

"Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one cannot remain in the cradle forever." —Konstantin Tsiolkovsky

"Oh, but there are a few thumb-suckers lacking in imagination and spirit, Dr. Tsiolkovsky, who would prefer to remain in the cradle. Poor, pitiable saps." —Zakur

 

[Morchella]

I have read many of Feynmans books and one thing I remember is that he had doubts about a nuclear rocket and said it was a bad idea because of the risk of it exploding on take off and spreading fallout all over the earth. I don't have the time to find the exact referance right now but I believe that to be true

 

[BillyJoe]

J. Richard Gott tries a bit of prediction in his book "Time Travel in Einstein's universe"

It's unlikey that we are living at the very beginning of the space program. Or at the very end. In fact.....there is a 95% chance that we are living in the [middle 95%]

Apart from being a fairly useless, what on earth could this "prediction" be based on?

 

[FireGarden]

"Oh, but there are a few thumb-suckers lacking in imagination and spirit, Dr. Tsiolkovsky, who would prefer to remain in the cradle. Poor, pitiable saps." —Zakur

Well, I'm glad I got in my "By the way" before this came along...

Nice set of quotes, Zakur


BillyJoe,
It may seem obvious, but it puts numbers on limits and on the probability of a life-span being in those limits.

The point is that if humanity goes on for a million years and space travel continues unstopped for that time then we are privileged and lucky to be here at almost the very beginning. (Though, of course, somebody has to be!) The method is based on the assumption that we are not lucky or special.



By the way,
The odds are 50% that the future of space travel will go on for between
46/3 = 15 years four months,
and
46*3 = 138 years

Toss a coin.
Heads we make it out of those limits (either way of course)
Tails we don't.

(Yeah, that last bit is flippant! )