sadhatter
Philosopher
- Joined
- Jun 4, 2009
- Messages
- 8,694
So a claim i hear quite a bit is " show my life arising from non life." in the sense that this person wants to see a non biological thing turn into something biological. And then they usually extend this by saying if we cannot show this, then obviously this type of thing does not occur. Completely ignoring the nature of sample sizes. I hope to clear up this misconception using a simple example.
Step one is to find a small container, about the size of a shot glass. Now have someone at random fill it up with dirt.
Now before seeing the dirt would anyone make a 400 dollar bet with me that it contained a dime? ( or other appropriate small change depending on country.)
Unless i do not know people at all, no one is going to make this bet. The chances of winning are incredibly small, almost impossible. Now the interesting thing is that the amount of dimes in an area is fairly high, but still, this sample has almost no chance of showing a dime.
Now let's assume that you have access to enough equipment to sift through all the dirt in your ( state, province, etc.). Would anyone not take this bet? Would there be a single person who would not bet on their being one dime in the entirety of the dirt in such a large area?
So what have we shown here? First that even things that are relatively common are hard to find if your not looking in the right place.
Second, that sample size greatly effects the accuracy of data. If we stopped at the shot glass, we would have reached the conclusion that dimes are never found in dirt.
Third, that even things that are next to impossible with a small sample size are almost a certainty with a large one.
What someone is doing when they state " show me one planet in which life can be seen coming from non life" is expecting us, with our shotglass full of dirt to show them a dime. They know it cannot be done, but what they do not realize is that it cannot be done due to technical limitations on what we can " see" from earth. The universe is a massive place compared to our little corner, and to think that because we cannot point to a planet on which this is happening at this moment means that it is not happening anywhere is simply absurd as my example has shown.
Step one is to find a small container, about the size of a shot glass. Now have someone at random fill it up with dirt.
Now before seeing the dirt would anyone make a 400 dollar bet with me that it contained a dime? ( or other appropriate small change depending on country.)
Unless i do not know people at all, no one is going to make this bet. The chances of winning are incredibly small, almost impossible. Now the interesting thing is that the amount of dimes in an area is fairly high, but still, this sample has almost no chance of showing a dime.
Now let's assume that you have access to enough equipment to sift through all the dirt in your ( state, province, etc.). Would anyone not take this bet? Would there be a single person who would not bet on their being one dime in the entirety of the dirt in such a large area?
So what have we shown here? First that even things that are relatively common are hard to find if your not looking in the right place.
Second, that sample size greatly effects the accuracy of data. If we stopped at the shot glass, we would have reached the conclusion that dimes are never found in dirt.
Third, that even things that are next to impossible with a small sample size are almost a certainty with a large one.
What someone is doing when they state " show me one planet in which life can be seen coming from non life" is expecting us, with our shotglass full of dirt to show them a dime. They know it cannot be done, but what they do not realize is that it cannot be done due to technical limitations on what we can " see" from earth. The universe is a massive place compared to our little corner, and to think that because we cannot point to a planet on which this is happening at this moment means that it is not happening anywhere is simply absurd as my example has shown.
