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Should Ukraine give up?

Hercules56

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There are reports in the Jerusalem Post that Russia and Ukraine are negotiating a path to peace, and its a hard one.

-Ukraine will have to give up Donbass region.

-Pledge that Ukraine will not join NATO.

-Military of Ukraine must be reduced in size.


Zelensky knows that he has tons of support. Financial, sanctions and weapons. But no country will defend Ukraine. They will have to do all the fighting.

The word is if Ukraine rejects this offer, Russia will go full Bear and crush Ukraine, quick and painful.

If Zelensky says no, he will look like a massive Ukrainian patriot. But possibly a dead one or be President of a non-existent nation.

If Zelensky says yes, he may look like a coward to some, but a pragmatic realist to others. NATO will not save Ukraine, maybe its not worth losing the nation in the name of pride and honor. I dont know.


https://www.jpost.com/international...ussia+and+Ukraine?&utm_campaign=March+9,+2022
 
Do that and just give Putin the rest of Eastern Europe and Taiwan to China to save us all the trouble.
 
AIUI The demand by Putin is not to 'reduce' the Ukrainian army but to get rid of it all together.

In other words, just roll over and let Russia takeover everything.
 
JoeMorgue said:
Do that and just give Putin the rest of Eastern Europe and Taiwan to China to save us all the trouble.
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Its very easy for you to say, you're not watching your nation be destroyed. And you're not faced with the decision to compromise or face annihilation.

NATO is a great ally, but only when you're a member. No one is fighting for Ukraine and they are losing.
 
Vixen said:
AIUI The demand by Putin is not to 'reduce' the Ukrainian army but to get rid of it all together.

In other words, just roll over and let Russia takeover everything.
Click to expand...

Well if that's the case, then Zelensky must say no.
 
Hercules56 said:
Its very easy for you to say, you're not watching your nation be destroyed. And you're not faced with the decision to compromise or face annihilation.

NATO is a great ally, but only when you're a member. No one is fighting for Ukraine and they are losing.
Click to expand...

Easy for you to say since you don't live in the countries Putin WILL take next if he gets away with taking Ukraine.
 
I'm struggling to think through how this could actually end though.

Barring some palace coup scenario that ends with Putin getting the old Makarov to the back of the head treatment, it's hard to imagine this war ending through anything but a negotiated peace where Putin is going to demand something, anything just to save face.

The terms cited here strike me as something Ukraine is not going to accept, even with all the bloodshed. But I wouldn't assume that there aren't terms that include them giving something to the aggressor that they wouldn't agree to.
 
It appears that Russia already went "full bear". Spearheaded the invasion with Airborne and Spetsnatz - and got smacked hard. 120 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG) are in Ukraine out of a nationwide total of about 160. That is to say that fully 3/4 of Russia's ground forces are in Ukraine right now. 100% of the forces that they pre-deployed to the area around Ukraine are now in Ukraine - Russia has no reserves left in the theater. Two years ago Russia had less than 100 BTG's, they ramped up their ground forces in anticipation of this, but it wasn't enough.

They could pull in BTGs from elsewhere, but that could leave them out of position, that's especially an issue in Georgia. Russia still has popular support for this war, but they are also facing large scale protests. Russian troops in Ukraine are demoralized. There is evidence that many of the abandoned Russian vehicles captured in Ukraine are a result of desertion (not all, lack of fuel and maintenance issues play a larger role).

Ukraine can still win this - grind Russia to a halt, bleed them white and wait for societal pressure to get Putin removed from power. The number of forces Russia would need to even just encircle Kyiv is much more than they have in that part of the country - Russia has no chance at all of capturing the city. None. Yet that seems to be their focus right now.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's military is getting bigger. Much bigger. Their active duty military before this was as large as Russia's invasion force. Add to that 200k reserves and recent veterans with experience in the Donbass area and they have a trained force double the size of the Russian force. That Ukrainian force has far fewer vehicles than Russia, but is very motivated and is getting resupply from Europe.

Add to that another 100k or so of foreign volunteers (many with military experience) and untrained but in-training Ukrainians defending their own cities.

I don't know if Ukraine will win this - but they still can and it looks a bit more likely everyday.
 
I figured Donbass is already lost from the last time around. Agreeing to that costs Ukraine nothing else at this point. But the rest of it just makes it easier for Russia to finish the job next time.

My view is that Ukraine should concede Donbass to get rid of the territorial dispute, and then join NATO as quickly as possible.

The real question is, should NATO give up? I.e., declare that it's not going to admit Ukraine anyway, on account of not wanting to run the risk of actually having to defend them next time around.
 
theprestige said:
I figured Donbass is already lost from the last time around. Agreeing to that costs Ukraine nothing else at this point. But the rest of it just makes it easier for Russia to finish the job next time.

My view is that Ukraine should concede Donbass to get rid of the territorial dispute, and then join NATO as quickly as possible.

The real question is, should NATO give up? I.e., declare that it's not going to admit Ukraine anyway, on account of not wanting to run the risk of actually having to defend them next time around.
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You are not getting it. Should Ukraine wave the white flag, a Putin puppet government will be installed. One of Putin's demands for 'peace' is that Ukraine be a 'neutral country', i.e., it does NOT join NATO.
 
Vixen said:
You are not getting it. Should Ukraine wave the white flag, a Putin puppet government will be installed. One of Putin's demands for 'peace' is that Ukraine be a 'neutral country', i.e., it does NOT join NATO.
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It seems pretty clear that Ukraine will not be joining NATO anytime soon. At least not in the next 10 years.

As far as the Eastern Russian speaking region it is a lost cause. They will obviously become part of Russia.

As for becoming a demilitarized nation that is something Ukraine cannot accept
 
I suspect Ukraine might agree to recognise the loss of Crimea, and agree not to join NATO or the EU. I really don't see them yielding more than that while waiting for whatever disease is killing Putin to do its work.
 
Jack by the hedge said:
I suspect Ukraine might agree to recognise the loss of Crimea, and agree not to join NATO or the EU. I really don't see them yielding more than that while waiting for whatever disease is killing Putin to do its work.
Click to expand...

To bad he can't catch the instant lead poisoning that OBL caught back in the day.
 
JoeMorgue said:
Do that and just give Putin the rest of Eastern Europe and Taiwan to China to save us all the trouble.
Click to expand...

What kind of trouble do you actually have?

I think 99% of the trouble is on the ukrainian people. Should they fight to their pretty certain death so that you could be spared some trouble? Aren't we outsourcing the fight to the ukrainians? Let them fight russia with our weapons, so that we don't have to do it ourselves?

I know it is a loaded point of view. But, I think there is a point to it.
 
I think Ukraine could live with letting go of Crimea, Donbass, and NATO membership.

But what will Russia give in return? Will they commit to respect Ukraine's territory? Will they commit to never again invade?
 
Will Russia hand over War Criminals to be tried in Ukraine?
No?
Then any peace will just be temporary until Putin has more supplies.
 
Ukraine could just promise not to be Nazis and not to commit genocide in Donbass. That would remove all the reasons Russia invaded after all and it would be trivially easy to do since they already weren't doing it. They could even agree to neutral 3rd party inspectors regularly checking they're not Nazis.
 
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