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Question - Need for Preliminary Phase of Challenge

belinda

Thinker
Joined
Jan 23, 2002
Messages
148
I am currently in the process of providing information to a person who claims she has water diviner skills about the Aus Skeptics challenge (A$100,000). I mentioned to her that I thought that if she won this - she would not have to go through the preliminary phase of the JREF challenge. Is this correct?

Its not acutally outlined in the challenge rules, but I am sure I have read something along these lines somewhere. Can anybody enlighten me??
 
belinda said:
I am currently in the process of providing information to a person who claims she has water diviner skills about the Aus Skeptics challenge (A$100,000). I mentioned to her that I thought that if she won this - she would not have to go through the preliminary phase of the JREF challenge. Is this correct?

Its not acutally outlined in the challenge rules, but I am sure I have read something along these lines somewhere. Can anybody enlighten me??

Randi has confirmed similar arrangements before -- but I suspect that he will have to know about the challenge and expressly agree to have the protocal for the Aus test "count" in order to work this.

A query directly to Randi (who rarely looks over any of these threads) would be the best way to set this up.
 
In a test series involving a number of Australian water diviners previously in which Randi took a close interest, he said that, for those people at that particular test series, if they passed, it would be accepted that they had passed the JREF Prize preliminary challenge. But I don't think that offer carried forward from then, because I would expect Randi would want to be sure that the testing each time is up to the JREF Prize requirements. Check with Richard!
 
Water divining seems to work only when the dowsers know in advance where the water is . The fact that it's been successful in the real world seems to be due to the fact that if you dig down deep enough in most places eventually you hit water , or Oil if you get lucky !
 
I am currently in the process of providing information to a person who claims she has water diviner skills about the Aus Skeptics challenge (A$100,000). I mentioned to her that I thought that if she won this - she would not have to go through the preliminary phase of the JREF challenge.

Maybe you should get her to do a pre-preliminary test with you just so she understands what will be involved.

Have six cups and fill one with water then cover them all with plates then ask her to use her skills to identify the water filled cup. (obviously don't let her see which one you put it in).

Keep sending her out of the room and then rearranging them.

If she can get it right, say, 20 times out of fifty then she could well be on to something. However if she refuses to do this or performs at chance level, try to encourage her not to apply for the challenge and thus not waste everyone's time.
 
I am bumping this thread because I think it is a very interesting one.

How many of us have friends who claim to be able to sense/predict/exhibit some form of 'paranormal' ability (ie. something in some way unexplained by current scientific thinking)? Quite a few I would imagine.

Belinda obviously has a friend who believes in their ability. Now it is so easy for us all to nod quietly when friends say these things (and maybe most of the time they are just saying it as a conversation piece) but sometimes even friends should be challenged if they are claiming strongly that their ability is real.

Not aggressively, not gleefully, but in the spirit of genuine interest.

Belinda's friend obviously feels strongly enough to actually be prepared to be tested, so i think it would be interesting to see whether Belinda has actually suggested a pre-trial test to her friend and how she reacted/performed.

I hope Belinda returns to this thread and updates us.

Similarly if anyone else has a friend who really believes in their unusual abilities, try actually giving them a little test and seeing how they perform. And keep us all updated.

It is also interesting to see how DALTON pulled out in another thread, claiming not to understand why a non-scientist should be involved. Remember, many of these claims go unchallenged for a long time because people rarely watch them with the thought of trickery or misdirection in mind. It's worth always keeping an eye out for it - sometimes people use trickery and subtle clues when they do not even realise it.
 
Thanks for all your feedback - particularly Ashles. I hadn't thought of getting her to do a pre-preliminary test [slap forehead]. I'm going to speak to her about it, but as you all surmised she is very sincere in her belief of what she can do - and in the driest continent, water is a very precious resource. She actually works (for a very small fee) as a water diviner around my partner's parents' town. Of course she has a very high success rate - give the water table - however I have yet to convince her that it is more to do with involuntary muscle movements than any ability on her part.

I don't want to humiliate her - she's a lovely person - and surprisingly skeptical about other items (eg UFO's ghosts etc) - but she does have her blinkers on this point.

I only asked about Randi's challenge so as I could be sure I was telling her the truth - not because I had any illusions about the likelihood of her succeeding. But then again I should not decide a priori about it, should I! :D

If she agrees, I will keep you up to date.
 
Yes, I'd believe Gympie.

It might be worth doing this a bit formally - make a video record of it. Demonstrate not just the failure to dowse, but also the formal process required even to be taken seriously in testing it. And how it is NOT meant to be a humiliating experience, nor do we cackle with glee when they fail. A "primer", if you will.
 
I don't want to humiliate her - she's a lovely person - and surprisingly skeptical about other items (eg UFO's ghosts etc) - but she does have her blinkers on this point.
Absolutely. The JREF challenge should never be about humiliation. Merely getting people to think about their abilities in a more objective situation.
I am sure your friend is lovely and I have had some lovely friends who believe in their unusual abilities. These abilities, however, have sounded very good based on previous stories they have told about them, but become a little more abstract when asked to demonstrate them again.
Try her out on my suggested test. I know how hard it is with friends, but it would be a great indicator.
 
Pardon me for jumping in but could both be right? It seems obvious to me that the ability to find water in an environment must be a very instinctive thing, and an important evolutionary advantage. Dowsing seems like an ideal way to disconnect the chatter of the rational mind and let the instinctive part of a person speak up, the instinctive part that might notice very small clues in the environment showing where the water is. Of course this would not be a paranormal ability but it would also explain the high success rate of dowsers finding naturally occurring water.
 
Marrena said:
Pardon me for jumping in but could both be right? It seems obvious to me that the ability to find water in an environment must be a very instinctive thing, and an important evolutionary advantage. Dowsing seems like an ideal way to disconnect the chatter of the rational mind and let the instinctive part of a person speak up, the instinctive part that might notice very small clues in the environment showing where the water is. Of course this would not be a paranormal ability but it would also explain the high success rate of dowsers finding naturally occurring water.

There doesn't seem to be any need to create explanations for why something works when nobody has ever been able to demonstrate that it actually does work.
 
Has it ever been tested with naturally occurring water, rather than something unnatural like tricky underground pipes or water buried in a box? Just curious--what I know about dowsing could fit on the head of a pin. Of course that would be proof that it's the opposite of paranormal so it wouldn't be eligible for the million, but it would be proof of a handy skill to have. I'm guessing.
 
Marenna,

Naturally occuring water actually does indeed leave clues that any astute observer can pick up on. Sometimes these are only small, even imperceptible to the untrained eye, but they do exist and offer rational explanation for the being able to pick natural water. Then again, many non-dowsers have been just as accurate - there are many examples of these people being able to "locate" underground water pipes...by drawing a line from the water tank to the faucet beside the house.

The thing is, many dowsers do actually claim to be able to perform successfully with pipes and water hidden in glasses and so on. Many also claim to be able to detect oil, various metals, objects, people, etc, under similar conditions. So these are testable claims that they are making.

The basic testing process runs like this:

1. The claimant assures that the test setup is fair for them.
2. They set a success rate they believe they can achieve in this test setup.
3. They assure that their dowsing ability is operational on the day of testing.
4. They assure that the test setup is free from any interference that would throw their dowsing off.
5. They prove to their own satisfaction using dry runs with targets in open view that their dowsing ability is quite operational, and that they understand the test process.
6. The testing is then conducted identical to the dry run, but with blinded targets. The tests are repeated a number of times to give a series of results.
7. Evaluate scores against the claimant's expected success rate.

So it is not like the skeptics are trying to put dowsers in a place where they are uncomfortable and cannot perform in an effort to discredit them. All effort is made to ensure that they have conditions they can perform successfully in, without breaking from adequate testing controls.

So far, no dowsers have ever scored better than chance under fair and equitable conditions such as these. Certainly they have never scored to their own expected success rate.
 
Marrena said:
Has it ever been tested with naturally occurring water, rather than something unnatural like tricky underground pipes or water buried in a box? Just curious--what I know about dowsing could fit on the head of a pin. Of course that would be proof that it's the opposite of paranormal so it wouldn't be eligible for the million, but it would be proof of a handy skill to have. I'm guessing.
The problem with dowsing for "natural" water is in the verification. Drilling a well is not cheap. To adequately test a dowser, you would have to drill enough wells in an area to get an valid sample of what the success rate is, then you would have to drill a fairly large number of dowser-located wells to see if their accuracy was statistically better than those positioned by geologic appraisal. This could run into some serious money.

But before all the dowsing tests that have been performed so far that I am aware of, the applicants have state unequivocally that they could find any water. However, after the tests, they often change their story.

One suggestion that has been made is to have the dowser locate a place where there isn't water, since they are much less common in the subsurface.
 
Tricky said:
To adequately test a dowser, you would have to drill enough wells in an area to get an valid sample of what the success rate is, then you would have to drill a fairly large number of dowser-located wells to see if their accuracy was statistically better than those positioned by geologic appraisal. This could run into some serious money.

I would not set them up against geologic science, because it might be possible that the trined human brain still could be better than geological science about finding water.
Testing dowsers against some people who live in dry areas, who still nearly live like thousands of years ago, would be more adequate. Whatever potential skill there is for humans to find water, those people will have nearly maxed it genetically since thousands of years. I guess they will be far better than dowsers in their natural enviroment.

I know, they often claim some spirits told them, but then it would be proven it has nothing to do with sticks vibrating.

Oh know, dowsers would then start to claim their rods allow them to commune with nature spirits:D .

Carn
 
Well, seeing it from the other side, as a person with high dopamine--if you have to do something tricky, and convincing yourself spirits are guiding you is the best way to shut up your rational mind and let your instincts take over, someone could easily get confused and start really believing that.

For example, I'm Wiccan. This involves a lot of focus and thought about the moon. Since I've been doing it, my menstrual cycle is getting in sync with the lunar cycle. Now the obvious scientific explanation for this is that with my focus on the moon, I am instinctively falling into exposing myself to evening artificial light in the same pattern as moonlight (I'm certainly not spending all my time at night outdoors gazing at the moon). This practice will cause any woman's cycle to shift. But I could easily delude myself into somehow thinking the Moon was exerting some kind of spiritual force on my body to regulate my period.
 
Carn said:
I would not set them up against geologic science, because it might be possible that the trined human brain still could be better than geological science about finding water.
There's a simple way to test this.
Why is it that the oil industry (dowsers also claim to be able to find oil) spends *billions* of dollars a year on shooting and interpreting seismic and employing thousands of geoscientists when the could hire a yokel dowser for a couple of hundred a week?

My logic (and 20 years experienc in a drilling department of a petroleum company) tells me that we spend the billions on what works...
 
EHocking said:
There's a simple way to test this.
Why is it that the oil industry (dowsers also claim to be able to find oil) spends *billions* of dollars a year on shooting and interpreting seismic and employing thousands of geoscientists when the could hire a yokel dowser for a couple of hundred a week?

My logic (and 20 years experienc in a drilling department of a petroleum company) tells me that we spend the billions on what works...

Right, with Oil, science is likely to win, but with water the dowsers might still have a chance.

Carn
 

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