Prognosticators (and Just Who is Peter Zeihan)

[Jimbo07]

Every once in a while, one of these talking heads swims up, either in newspaper columns, or Youtube feeds, or whatever. The latest for me is Peter Zeihan.

So, like any idiot looking to be later bombarded by an algorithm, I watched a couple of his videos. They were short and sweet, coming in at less than 10 minutes (although a couple sounded like they were culled from other interviews).

Question 1 (on Zeihan):

Anyone know the background on this guy? I tried to read the comments or find some scuttlebutt on line. Many comments seem to be sort of anti-globalization rants. It's hard for me to tell if these commentors are fer him or agin him. What's the scoop?

Question 2 (more generally):

He and others sometimes make actual predictions (look for oil prices to be X by end of this summer, sort of thing). Has anyone checked up on these predictions? I mean, kudos for making them, because it puts oneself out there. On the flip side, could it be that nobody cares about their predictions? Like certain politicians, is the only thing that is important is what they say in the moment, and how it makes people feel?

ETA: Just look at these two comments! I can't make heads or tails of it! Is he Right? Left? Who hates him more?

Is Peter a deep state shill? Russia WILL win this war. Have you heard of Bachmut? How is that going for Ukraine? After Ukraine the West will focus on a war with China. The deep state is already trying to turn people's attention to China the balloon bs. Why would China need a balloon to spy on us?!? China has satellites DUH!!

CHUMPTY LUMPTY TRUMPTY held weapons logistical equipment and anything else Ukraine could of really fought RUSSIA off with he held hostage against Ukraine to try and dig up dirt against biden THIS IS WHY UKRAINE IS EVEN IN THIS POSITION THIS IS A BIG PART OF THIS SITUATION so yeah chumptys action could of kept Ukraine from even being invaded to begin with that two hour meeting they had when he first took office wonder what they talked about.

I mean, I barely understand the second one!!

 

[Oystein]

...
ETA: Just look at these two comments! I can't make heads or tails of it! Is he Right? Left? Who hates him more?


I mean, I barely understand the second one!!

Who reads YT comments, now seriously?!? They, and particularly the two you just quoted, give you precisely zero information about Peter Zeihan, , and also none about his follower base.

Wikipedia should have an article on him, I would start there. He has written books.

He has a general theme: Demographic change, and how it will totally wreck economies left and right very VERY soon (and China will implode first). As a result, de-globalization must inevitably follow, at which time the USA, being self-confined and having all the requisite natural resources (fossil fuels and arable land), will come out the winner. Yes, he does not think the world can switch away from fossils, that renewables are losers.

He is stylistically VERY certain of his predictions and models - and so, no, I don't thik his predictions are worth a whole lot, even if he makes sense often, and things may go the general direction he suggests. But I think he greatly underestimates societies' capacity to adapt and react to impending doom.

He is sometimes short on facts, and sometimes flat-out wrong: For example, on Joe Rogan, he sad that Putin comes from a succession of Soviet KGB leaders, like a KGB clique going way back, and names Andropov, Chernenko and Gorbachev, the last three leaders of the USSR - except that Chernenko and Gorbachev did not actually have any KGB ties to speak of, and he even got the name of Chernenko wrong and said Chernomyrdin, head of Gazprom and prime minister under Yeltsin in the 1990s. So take what he says with the usual and appropriate amounts of salt.

That said, I am victim of the same algorithms as I find his talks entertaining, well spoken, fascinating, and at times persuasive.

 

[catsmate]

Zeihan is former StratFor. Not great on history, epecially where it's not USA-centric.
Rather (incorrectly) obessed with USAian old self-sufficiency (ignoring a vast range of other complexities).

Overall he's really obsessed with the world being utterly dependent on the USA, for trade and security, and that any dimunition of this (which he feels in inevitable and Coming Real Soon) will cause global chaos. Also that China will collapse in the near future (actually one of his few predictions I think actually likely).

Overally his rants are superficially persuasive to those who don't bother to check actual facts and examine his extrapolations.

 

[Jimbo07]

Who reads YT comments, now seriously?!? They, and particularly the two you just quoted, give you precisely zero information about Peter Zeihan, , and also none about his follower base.

Wikipedia should have an article on him, I would start there. He has written books.

His Wikipedia entry is pretty short and exactly as you said. It states that he writes books... but not much else! It doesn't say if his books are well received, or if there's any scuttlebutt. So, is he notorious? Or still gaining notoriety? What're people saying about him? I was looking, here, for the skeptical word on the street.

He has a general theme: Demographic change, and how it will totally wreck economies left and right very VERY soon (and China will implode first). As a result, de-globalization must inevitably follow, at which time the USA, being self-confined and having all the requisite natural resources (fossil fuels and arable land), will come out the winner. Yes, he does not think the world can switch away from fossils, that renewables are losers.

He is stylistically VERY certain of his predictions and models - and so, no, I don't thik his predictions are worth a whole lot, even if he makes sense often, and things may go the general direction he suggests. But I think he greatly underestimates societies' capacity to adapt and react to impending doom.

Some commentors have been saying that he's been pulling down his predictions, so they can't be back-checked.

He is sometimes short on facts, and sometimes flat-out wrong: For example, on Joe Rogan, he sad that Putin comes from a succession of Soviet KGB leaders, like a KGB clique going way back, and names Andropov, Chernenko and Gorbachev, the last three leaders of the USSR - except that Chernenko and Gorbachev did not actually have any KGB ties to speak of, and he even got the name of Chernenko wrong and said Chernomyrdin, head of Gazprom and prime minister under Yeltsin in the 1990s. So take what he says with the usual and appropriate amounts of salt.

It's sort of like watching Binkov's Battlegrounds. I don't always agree with the 'facts' these folks present, but I like them, because even a broken clock is right twice a day. Every once in a while, they provide nuggets of things I haven't thought of. Binkov, for example, skews heavy to an Eastern European viewpoint, and I haven't often thought of their military concerns capabilities. Even if not 100% correct, it lets me consider things I maybe haven't before.

That said, I am victim of the same algorithms as I find his talks entertaining, well spoken, fascinating, and at times persuasive.

Some of his points are dead-on. But then, anyone with a passing knowledge of history should be able to hit some of them.

...

Anyway, it's like when you discover a Think Tank is right leaning (or left) and you didn't know before, so you go "Ah ha!" Or, it's like everyone knows who Tucker Carlson is and what his angle is (even if I'm not American). I'm looking for the word on the street about this guy, and so far, the internet has let me down. Maybe he's just not famous enough yet, but then... they're just giving anyone their own Youtube channel now?

ETA:

Overally his rants are superficially persuasive to those who don't bother to check actual facts and examine his extrapolations.

Well, I don't have time to check everyone. Fortunately, I don't live my life based on any one thing said by any one talking head.

 

[angrysoba]

I heard about him a few years ago, or more, when someone here called NWO Sentryman was predicting doom and gloom and making some very severe prognostications for the world. When I asked him who he was getting this information from he said it was from Peter Zeihan and then said that he has some interesting stuff to say about Japan, too.

His basic schtick is that the world has been, since WWII basically Pax America, but that in recent years America has lost interest in much of the world, and the global network of organizations and cooperation is fragmenting etc...

He also thinks China and Russia will fall apart.

Personally, I have not made my mind up about him. I have a feeling that as with many pundits, he may simply be extrapolating hyperbolically for clicks.

As for predictions, I think he predicted that Russia would crush Ukraine easily, but he admits that that didn't happen.

 

[Oystein]

Here is a new Zeihan video, this time about the Wagner group and its owner, Yevgeny Prigozhin. He boldly predicts the demise of Wagner to come rather sooner than later. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYktbFKITck

But!

He doesn't know the name of Yevgeny Prigozhin! He thinks it's "Progazin", or at least that's what he says all the time:
at 11 s
at 2:05 min
at 2:52 min

Call me naggy, but when you don't know the name of the man you are talking about, you'll have a hard time convincing me that you have gathered all the required facts and done a careful analysis.

Basically, Zeihan's argument here is that Wagner recruits from two pools: Former Russian military pros, and prison inmates; and that the RU army now has a monopoly on the former, and the population of the latter is depleted already, so Wagner can't recruit no more. But he lacks the imagination, not to speak of research skills, that Wagner might recruit non-Russians - as they actually do (e.g. in the past: in Serbia, Central Africa).

So it appears more and more to me that Zeihan is all about quantity (putting out a YT video, or several, and what not between frequent speaking engagements) and less about quality of content.

 

[Arcade22]

Why is he making a living off YouTube monetization and not using his oracle-like prognostication abilities to become a multibillionaire by playing the stock market?