Probability question - 'premonitions'

[six7s]

I need some help illustrating (to a friend who has mild woo leanings) how there's a significantly high probability that someone will have a premonition about anything that is in the news - esp re something/someone with a high profile

I remember someone on the radio explaining the odds were pretty much certain that someone would dream about the space shuttle Challenger crashing, given how - for a LOT of people - it was BIG news and concerned something rather risky/potentially dangerous/etc

I have tried Googling skeptic calculate probability premonition but the results are heavy on woo, light on maths... so I figured I'd ask here for help with:

1. identifying the relevant variables
2. devising a formula - one that can be implemented/adjusted in a spreadsheet

The variables I have thought of:

• Population size (# people who see/hear/read the news)
• Topics for dreams
  # news stories per day
  # non-news dream topics​
• # Dreams per person per night
• Duration (# of nights) of 'news story'

P(premonition) = ?????????

 

[six7s]

:

 

[Bikewer]

I agree in principal, though sussing out the exact odds might be difficult. With an enormous human population, and potentially many billions of dreams, (and other phenomenon) happening on a daily basis, correspondences would be a certainty.

What's always struck me as odd is the remarkable failure rate of supposed psychics and their premonitions. One could simply read through a catalogue of Earth-shaking events that had happened in the last 10 years or so, none of which were predicted by anyone.