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"premonitions"

sgtbaker

Philosopher
S
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
Messages
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I was listening to a morning radio show, a few weeks ago and they were talking about the psychic that called in reporting the mass graves. Someone had called into the radio show, claiming to be a psychic. He said that his ability doesn't involved detailed visuals but a premonition that something bad is going to happen, and then something bad happens. I also want to add that he said he is not a career psychic, he just claims to have the ability. I was tempted to call in and ask how many times he recalls having the premonitions and then nothing actually happens but I would prefer to be a little bit more armed with scientific information about the brain chemistry, involved. I had intended to ask the question when I got home but I had completely forgotten about it, until this morning.

I had a really strong sense of "impending doom" this morning and naturally nothing happened (yet <cue scary music>). I get that sensation a lot and I've known other people to say they get the same feeling. I imagine it's just some kind of hiccup in the brain, an inadvertent release of adrenaline(?) but to be perfectly honest, I have no idea. Has anyone ever studied that? Are there any theories as to why people get these seemingly unprovoked sense of; something bad is going to happen? A quick google search brought up a lot of wooish answers. Just curious and I hope I put this in the right section.
 
So, two things really:

1: it's probably not true that psychic predictions are identical to vague premonitions. This is contrary to what psychics themselves report. Predictions are typically quite detailed. The caller on that show was probably only speaking for himself.

2: your description of a vague sense of impending doom sounds more like a mild or subclinical anxiety or panic disorder, probably very common in the population and I would expect entirely harmless despite also being frustrating and uncomfortable
 
Michael Shermer points out that the population is large enough that people who do have what they believe are premonitions are on the basis of pure coincidence sometimes going to be right. All the premonitions which were wrong are quickly forgotten. So if a premonition were right 1 out of three trillion times and you didn't consider the denominator, that one correct premonition would seem persuasively real. What are the chances a correct premonition is simply a coincidental event? Extremely high.
 
I think I was unclear. I wanted to call in and point out the confirmation bias. I don't think premonitions are anything more than some kind of mild malfunction in the brain; really no different than when you get that feeling of anticipation for no apparent reason, or even a mild mood swing, for that matter.

Let's say, hypothetically, that I am getting ready to go out with a friend (who happens to be a little woo) and said friend says, "I don't think I want to leave, I just got a bad feeling like something horrible is going to happen." Is there a scientific answer for that, such as, "Well actually, what you're feeling a sudden surge of x chemical, in your brain and it really means nothing more than the human brain is imperfect," or is it just one of those things that nobody has really cared enough to study?

I certainly didn't mean to imply that the "premonition" feeling meant something more, as in spiritually. The (yet <cue scary music>) was a joke. :)
 
I recall one I had that was rather spooky.... I was working security at a large hospital, in a "fixed post" guard shack. There was a lot of construction going on. In the evening, a nasty wind blew up and actually blew some rooftop gravel off the big hospital building which pelted down on my little shack.
No big deal, but it made me feel really uneasy for some reason.
The next day, the construction crew was lowering a huge 30-ton crane motor down the face of the building onto a truck.
About halfway down, the shackles bolted into the roof structure popped and the whole thing fell about 60 feet, flattening the truck (it was a flat-bed, and ended up being REALLY flat...)
Several people were injured by the flying steel cables and shackle parts.
Premonition? Likely not, just confirmation bias as noted above.
 
sgtbaker said:
I think I was unclear. I wanted to call in and point out the confirmation bias. I don't think premonitions are anything more than some kind of mild malfunction in the brain; really no different than when you get that feeling of anticipation for no apparent reason, or even a mild mood swing, for that matter.

Let's say, hypothetically, that I am getting ready to go out with a friend (who happens to be a little woo) and said friend says, "I don't think I want to leave, I just got a bad feeling like something horrible is going to happen." Is there a scientific answer for that, such as, "Well actually, what you're feeling a sudden surge of x chemical, in your brain and it really means nothing more than the human brain is imperfect," or is it just one of those things that nobody has really cared enough to study?

I certainly didn't mean to imply that the "premonition" feeling meant something more, as in spiritually. The (yet <cue scary music>) was a joke. :)
Click to expand...

The frustrating complication with giving a perfectly good scientific explanation for an experience - like a feeling of impending doom in this example - is that it merely adds a layer to the mystery to somebody who's interested in sticking it all to a mysterious supernatural origin.

"Yes, yes, it's caused by a temporary decrease in gamma-aminobutyric acid, but what causes that to happen to just specific people, and without cause Mister Physiology Major?"

Eventually, even the most knowledgeable person will land on "Nobody knows," and that's where the woo breaks into a **** eating grin and says "gotcha!"
 
sgtbaker said:
I think I was unclear. I wanted to call in and point out the confirmation bias. I don't think premonitions are anything more than some kind of mild malfunction in the brain; really no different than when you get that feeling of anticipation for no apparent reason, or even a mild mood swing, for that matter.

Let's say, hypothetically, that I am getting ready to go out with a friend (who happens to be a little woo) and said friend says, "I don't think I want to leave, I just got a bad feeling like something horrible is going to happen." Is there a scientific answer for that, such as, "Well actually, what you're feeling a sudden surge of x chemical, in your brain and it really means nothing more than the human brain is imperfect," or is it just one of those things that nobody has really cared enough to study?

I certainly didn't mean to imply that the "premonition" feeling meant something more, as in spiritually. The (yet <cue scary music>) was a joke. :)
Click to expand...

I think most of it has to do with just believing in woo and being superstitious.
No specific chemical/brain action/reaction...just a susceptible mind thinking
kooky things. No more, no less. Just my 2 cents. ;)
 
blutoski said:
The frustrating complication with giving a perfectly good scientific explanation for an experience - like a feeling of impending doom in this example - is that it merely adds a layer to the mystery to somebody who's interested in sticking it all to a mysterious supernatural origin.

"Yes, yes, it's caused by a temporary decrease in gamma-aminobutyric acid, but what causes that to happen to just specific people, and without cause Mister Physiology Major?"
Eventually, even the most knowledgeable person will land on "Nobody knows," and that's where the woo breaks into a **** eating grin and says "gotcha!"
Click to expand...

That is brilliant! Good point.
 
jhunter1163 said:
Classic confirmation bias. You have a premonition of impending doom; one of the half-dozen or so crappy things that happens to everyone every day happens; aha! you can sense disaster coming!
Click to expand...
.
That's why I don't run yellow lights, or tail gate.
Disaster lurks there!
I just know it! :)
 
drzeus99 said:
I think most of it has to do with just believing in woo and being superstitious.
No specific chemical/brain action/reaction...just a susceptible mind thinking
kooky things. No more, no less. Just my 2 cents. ;)
Click to expand...

I totally disagree. I live with the feeling of "impending doom" most of the time. It's definitely some brain chemical. For years growing up I lived in an environment where anticipating and heading off actual threats was crucial to survival, and now, 30 years later, it feels like some brain chemical got stuck in the "on" position, as part of post-traumatic stress.

I've never been particularly superstitious, and certainly am not now, after realizing the feeling is pretty constant regardless if I logically anticipate good things, bad things, or neither, or whether good things, bad things or neither actually happen. It's not much fun to feel, but I've learned to try to ignore it.

But if it were caused by just being superstitious and believing in woo, rather than a brain chemical, then I should be able to actually stop the feeling, rather than have to live with it. It doesn't work like that. I wish it did.
 
blutoski said:
The frustrating complication with giving a perfectly good scientific explanation for an experience - like a feeling of impending doom in this example - is that it merely adds a layer to the mystery to somebody who's interested in sticking it all to a mysterious supernatural origin.

"Yes, yes, it's caused by a temporary decrease in gamma-aminobutyric acid, but what causes that to happen to just specific people, and without cause Mister Physiology Major?"

Eventually, even the most knowledgeable person will land on "Nobody knows," and that's where the woo breaks into a **** eating grin and says "gotcha!"
Click to expand...

This is very true in my experience. The only way a bleever can be brought to understanding an issue is to have them better understand the scientific method itself. Merely using critical thinking to debunk the issue for them doesn't seem to be enough.

When I believed in Jeebus, I was convinced by arguments and experiences which appeared stronger than the atheist arguments. Only when I understood where the argument came from or how they were put together did I begin to understand that my position made no sense.
[Nommed, by the way.]
 
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