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Pet Psychic Test - Video

Richard

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Richard
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Aug 1, 2001
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960
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2P0vLYPwB7M

OK.. this is THE WORST TEST of a 'psychic' I have ever seen. You will not believe the protocols, the scoring and the cold reading. This is a classic and clear guide of how NOT to test a 'psychic'.

I would be interested to hearing your ideas for a real test of this woman, given that she claims to match up dogs with their owners.
 
Richard said:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2P0vLYPwB7M

OK.. this is THE WORST TEST of a 'psychic' I have ever seen. You will not believe the protocols, the scoring and the cold reading. This is a classic and clear guide of how NOT to test a 'psychic'.

I would be interested to hearing your ideas for a real test of this woman, given that she claims to match up dogs with their owners.
Click to expand...

Have the owners and pets in completely separate rooms. Also don't give the results of the pet psychic's match until she matches all the owners and pets up. And have more sets of owners and pets that need to be matched up. 3 sets are not nearly enough.

On the show she started out with odds of getting 1 out of 3 right. But because she got an immediate postive response, her odds for matching the the next pet and owner went to 1 out of 2! I guess they could have also called the show "Bad Statistics" . ;)

ETA: Dumb show, but the pets were cute! :)
 
I watched the video, 'read' the dogs minds myself, and got all three right, too.

Three very different looking dogs, three very different looking (sets of) people.

It would have been (a little) more impressive if she had matched a number of Labs to their respective hunter/owners.
 
Shera said:
On the show she started out with odds of getting 1 out of 3 right. But because she got an immediate postive response, her odds for matching the the next pet and owner went to 1 out of 2!
Click to expand...

Monty Hall Problem. Not that I get it, but aren't the chances still 1 in 3 even after the first one is right?

I suck at stats. It's all those pesky numbers ya see.
 
Donn said:
Monty Hall Problem. Not that I get it, but aren't the chances still 1 in 3 even after the first one is right?

I suck at stats. It's all those pesky numbers ya see.
Click to expand...

Not at all. The probability only remains the same if the amount of information remains the same, and once a single match is confirmed, the amount of information is different.

Boy, what were the chances that a young man with the look of a surfer would leave his dog with his parents occasionally? And people over forty or so with glasses? That hardly ever happens! Oh, and best of all, that terrible family that don't take their dog with them whenever they go out! Who could possibly imagine such a thing?
 
Shera said:
Have the owners and pets in completely separate rooms. Also don't give the results of the pet psychic's match until she matches all the owners and pets up. And have more sets of owners and pets that need to be matched up. 3 sets are not nearly enough.
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I agree. Another thing I thought of was to have "dummy choices" that were there to pick from, but didn't actually have a pet there.

BTW, Richard, I love your videos. Keep 'em coming! :)

BlackCat
 
BlackCat said:
Another thing I thought of was to have "dummy choices" that were there to pick from, but didn't actually have a pet there.
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That's a good test! They could also have pets whose owners aren't there also.

Meffy said:
<CurlyHoward> Ohhh, a Lab test! Nyuk nyuk nyuk. </CurlyHoward>
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LOL! I'm not a 3 stooges fan -- but that's funny!
 
I matched the dogs to owners up correctly:

Golden retriever with a bandana round his neck: Mum and boy, because he's probably the boys dog, and the bandana seems a bit stereotypical in a boy and dog kind of way

The little black dog. Is a small dog called Tiffany, and the guy didn't look gay.

Shaggy dog: Elimination, but also a bigger dog and so more likely to belong to the man.

The dogs and their owners were also standing in the same order.

I agree with the matching dogs of the same breed, with owners and pets out of sight of each other, in different rooms and with dummy pets. That is pets without owners, not stuffed dogs.
 
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