• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Perception is reality

marineboy

Student
Joined
Dec 21, 2009
Messages
32
As sceptics we seek the truth, we consider evidence without prejudice. We have no predetermined opinions.

The internet has filled our lives with information, but not necessarily with facts. The truth is out there, somewhere, but often hidden in a sea of opinions and rhetoric.

So what can we do whne truth is so hard to find?

The Global warming story is a conspiracy of the internet age. In blogs and comments on thousands of website people throw insults and weblinks at each other like spears and arrows. But nobody’s armour is ever so much as dented.

“If you look at medievalwarmingperiodisbagofshite.com you’ll see I’m right!”

“You’re so gullible. I think you’ll find that if you look at hockeystickisloadofbollocks.com you’ll see I’m right”

Everyone is talking and no-one is listening. Such anger and arrogance. How can people be so certain in the face of so much noise.
Every argument has a counter argument. For every pro website there’s an anti website.

I am not a scientist. Most of the people posting and blogging are not scientists. I have neither the expertise nor the time to sift through the thousands of claims and counterclaims. Several noted individuals whose opinions I have always respected are firm advocates of climate change. Several noted individuals whose opinions I have always respected are firm opponents.

So how does the dedicated sceptic tackle such a complex subject? To act is to take sides. To do nothing is to take sides.

The answer, I think, is to step away from the detail, from the angels and the pins, and to look at the bigger picture. Is there a conspiracy and if so by whom?

I take the oldest and sharpest tool from the sceptic’s toolbox and apply it thus.

1) The Climate change advocates would have us believe that the majority of world’s scientists have come to the collective conclusion that the world is warming and that humans are the cause. They say the evidence is overwhelming. They have convinced the majority of world governments that this is the case. The scientist and the government believe that the only way to prevent a global catastrophe is to radically change the way we live and that we collectively must pay for this.
They also claim that a small number of self serving individuals mostly funded by major oil companies and supported by right wing elements in the American administration, have launched a deliberate campaign of misinformation and smears to discredit the scientific consensus and derail the process for their own gain. They carry in their wake thousands of misguided individuals who would rather believe a conspiracy theory than accept the need to change.

2) The Climate change opponents would have us believe that a small number of maverick independent scientists are resisting a global conspiracy. They say their evidence is overwhelming and that the world’s climate is not being changed by human activity. They have been aided in their fight by several major oil companies and car manufacturers who say that we are being lied to by our gevernments and that our rights are being eroded.
They also claim that a majority of the world’s scientist have conspired to create a global warming scare. They have done this for personal gain. They have been assisted in this by a majority of the world’s governments and left wing elements of the American administration for the purpose of raising taxation and keeping us in our place. They carry in their wake thousands of misguided individuals who would rather follow like sheep than seek the truth.

Apply Occam’s razor.
Whose motivation to mislead is more credible?
The rest is smoke and mirrors.
 
Welcome, Marineboy. Good analysis. It is, of course, completely possible that global warming skeptics are right on all counts. Ockham's Razor only really works here against the conspiracy theories, until you start drilling to into the details of climate science. And I'm not qualified to judge that either. That said, I think that it's generally prudent to act as if the majority of climate scientists actually know what they're talking about. The opinions of laymen matter not.

It's absurd how many television pundits think they can outguess experts. While truth isn't dictated by consensus, nor is it a matter of selecting the theory you like best so long as there are scientists who happen to share that opinion. It's telling how thoroughly this particular topic is divided along political party lines in the US. An analysis of the party affiliations of those scientists who have come out against the idea of global warming and, in particular, anthropogenic global warming, might be equally telling.
 
Well, the way you frame it, 2) sounds more unlikely.

But of course, it's possible in principle for the scientific consensus to be wrong without a conspiracy. Or they could be half-right.

I am not an AGW skeptic (or denier), but I am a skeptic of some of the proposed policies to deal with climate change.
 
Last edited:
Occam's Razor is an economy of assumptions. It asks: Which side makes the fewest number of unsupported claims. The side with the most support is more likely to be the correct one. But, the Razor, alone, does not really demonstrate conclusively which one it is.

The scientific method does a better job of getting down to the nuts and bolts of what is even closer to correctedness, than merely applying Occam's Razor. So far, the science is on the AGW side, for the most part.

But, that's not going to stop the climate change deniers from thinking the Razor is really on their side.

I think the best strategy is to show 'em the science, but don't be alarmist about it.

The scientist and the government believe that the only way to prevent a global catastrophe is to radically change the way we live and that we collectively must pay for this.
Emphasis mine. This might not necessarily be true. Some scientists are developing innovative ways of addressing climate change and global warming, that would not require "radical" change or action on the part of most people.

Some, such as market-based-solutions are radical to some sectors of folks, but won't necessarily be important to anyone else. They could even be profit-making opportunities for industries, though the conspiracy theorist won't see it that way, at first.
 
Last edited:
Nice first post. You make a good point, there is a ton of conflicting information out there on the web and in the media and it's hard for most of us to assess a lot of it. I don't think motivation to mislead is the primary question when it comes to plausibility, though. There is some role for it among others.

The most important consideration for me was "who's most likely to be right?" I considered climate scientists to be the obvious answer. Even this question of scientific opinion on what the research shows is contested. But when the debate is on this level it's much easier to dissect. And of course there will always be at least a handful of skeptic scientists (such as Lindzen).

Another plausibility factor for me is whether the skeptic arguments are consistent, both over time and with each other. When I see some new argument why AGW is wrong every week that makes an eyebrow go up. Some say the world isn't warming at all, some say cosmic rays are doing it, some say sunspots are doing it, some say cloud cover will counterbalance the warming, some say warming will actually make the planet better, some say it's a conspiracy for grant money and/or taxes, some say its underwater volcanos. They obviously can't all be right. CRU emails were popular a little while ago, while they were fresh. Now it's ocean cycles--or whatever.
 
That a behavioral human contribution to GW is part of its onset seems well supported by observed evidence. The significance of that contribution is of interest, and still a partly open question. When one considers policy changes, or drastic policy changes, one ought to be a bit more certain of cause and effect relationships when attempting to get "x" behavior change out of "y" policy implementation.

To put this in a practical light, the emotionally based objection to nuclear power, and the fear mongering, over the past thirty years is a case in point for how policy decisions have not well considered the facts, science and evidence of the objections to nuclear power when making a policy change, or an adjustment.

The silver lining? The AGW debate has re-energized nuclear power as a good option for energy supply. About freakin' time.

For that alone, I am grateful for the debate.

I am also keen to see non petroleum energy forms get another try.

DR
 
Last edited:
Here is what I recommend:

When you see something written on a blog, look for citations and ask yourself:

1) is this citation to a real paper in a legitimate peer reviewed journal
2) what is the impact factor of the Journal
3) is this citation relevant.
4) Does the paper say what is claimed
5) Are there dissenting papers of similar or greater impact.
6) Are there specific peer reviewed refutations?
 
One of the things often maintained by "deniers" is that "Global Warming" is a vast conspiracy.
What they are rather vague about is the reason for the conspiracy and it's ultimate goal.
Usually, you get something like "To ruin our economy!"

This does not hold up too well to scrutiny....
 
Some scientists are developing innovative ways of addressing climate change and global warming, that would not require "radical" change or action on the part of most people.

Some, such as market-based-solutions are radical to some sectors of folks, but won't necessarily be important to anyone else. They could even be profit-making opportunities for industries, though the conspiracy theorist won't see it that way, at first.


"Superfreakonomics", the sequel to the awesome "Freakonomics" discusses a number of realistic proposals by scientists that are fairly cheap to do on a global scale (a few tens of billions, or hundreds of billions at most, i.e. infinitely smaller than massive regulations on outputs) to directly counteract the industrial output, which is to go on full steam ahead.


In a similar terrestrial engineering proposal, they discuss one guy's plan to divert and weaken hurricanes, which would only cost a few billion to set up, and would quickly pay for itself just diverting a few hurricanes, or one big one.


And all this is if you actually want to do something about GW, which, given the not-so-severe problems it causes, compared to overshooting the "fix" and inducing an ice age, is hardly a given.




And to those critical thinkers out there, if the goal in AGW by politicians is "control" for political purposes rather than actual science, one can predict they will eschew these ideas, poo-pooing them because they do not allow massive governmental regulation and intervention.

This is similar to the theory that people politicians in favor of "single-payer" health care are more interested in massive control of a near-trillion dollar industry, with all the attendant perks, than they are in actually ensuring everybody gets care. Hence the desire to tax plans rather than exempt plans to make them easier. To make it idiotic to dump lots of money into an individual's (private, medical-only, tax-free) Flexible Spending Plan by having the government seize any that's unused at the end of the year rather than roll it over. And insurance companies have viable plans to cover everyone rather than have a government takeover. Rejected! Why? The standard idea is embarrassingly silent, while this theory chalks up another observation in support.


As the purported Jesus was purported to have said, "They will be known by their actions. A withered tree cannot give fruit, and a healthy tree cannot fail to give fruit."
 
Last edited:
And to those critical thinkers out there, if the goal in AGW by politicians is "control" for political purposes rather than actual science, one can predict they will eschew these ideas, poo-pooing them because they do not allow massive governmental regulation and intervention.


False dichotomy. (Hey, you summoned the critical thinkers.) There are plenty of reasons not to pursue such plans that aren't related to a desire to control things, such as whether or not those ideas will work or avoiding the responsibility for steering a hurricane away from one place only to have it hit someone else. Further, massive governmental regulation and intervention doesn't amount to controlling "for political purposes". If the topic is anthropogenic global warming, then regulation and control addresses the anthropogenic part.


As the purported Jesus was purported to have said, "They will be known by their actions. A withered tree cannot give fruit, and a healthy tree cannot fail to give fruit."

But a healthy, unfertilized tree will not give fruit. Nice try Jesus.
 
Good luck trying to get a rational discussion going on Climate Change.

I've discussed religion and politics and received only positive, good-natured discussion from people; you mention AGW/Climate Change on this site and it gets UGLY....
 

Back
Top Bottom