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PEAK OIL: Going Mainstream

JihadJane

not a camel
JihadJane
Joined
Jul 11, 2008
Messages
91,127
"Peak oil used to be the preoccupation of a small minority, but a parliamentary group has been set up to follow the issue and an increasing number of industrialists have begun to worry about it."

'Energy minister will hold summit to calm rising fears over peak oil
Lord Hunt calls UK industrialists together to discuss government response to any early onset of decline in global oil production'

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/mar/21/peak-oil-summit


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Good summary how Peak Oil threatens the stability of modern industrial civilization:

'Tipping Point: Near-Term Systemic Implications of a Peak in Global Oil Production - Part 1 - Summary'

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6309


Summarized paper in full (PDF):

'Tipping Point : Near-Term Systemic Implications of a Peak in Global Oil Production

An Outline Review '

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/Tipping Point.pdf
 
theoildrum.com? Really? Wow.

Industries react as the prices climb, looking for alternatives. As those alternatives become more widespread, their costs come down and the demand on the old standard goes down as well. Eventually an old industry disappears or is marginalized (like say, horse drawn carriages).

Yes, things get 'uncomfortable' for certain industries as oil prices climb and reserves are tapped out. That is what motivates them to invest more in new replacements. The bigger the problem, the greater the incentive to invest in new technologies.

It is more than a little blind to pretend that there hasn't been MASSIVE investment into technologies that obsolesce oil. Bio-fuel really sucks, and doesn't appear to be getting anywhere near enough improvement to compete with other alternatives, but bio-plastics are making fantastic gains. Battery technology research draws investment from just about all fields right now. Hybrid drive technology is a nice stop-gap, but don't pretend that it has slowed investment in hydrogen gas and cell technology, with sources such as termite bacteria among others, and fully electric vehicles. Fertilizers can come from other sources. Sure, post consumer waste will never produce enough to be more than a supplement, but nitrogen air extraction and sea water phosphate extraction are extremely promising.

Yes, 'peak oil' exists, but it isn't the huge problem that doomsayers and anti-human groups wish it was. We're almost out of the oil age already.
 
Is anyone so delusional as to think that oil would last forever?

I'm sure someone does.....I probably just don't want to know it.
 
tyr_13 said:
theoildrum.com? Really? Wow.
Click to expand...

The paper was published by Feasta and the Risk/Resilience Network:

Feasta, a leading international think-tank exploring the interactions between human welfare, the structure and operation of human systems, and the ecosystem which supports both.

The Risk/Resilience Network, an initiative which was established in order to understand energy induced systemic risk, the scope for risk management, and general and emergency planning.

Industries react as the prices climb, looking for alternatives. As those alternatives become more widespread, their costs come down and the demand on the old standard goes down as well. Eventually an old industry disappears or is marginalized (like say, horse drawn carriages).

Yes, things get 'uncomfortable' for certain industries as oil prices climb and reserves are tapped out. That is what motivates them to invest more in new replacements. The bigger the problem, the greater the incentive to invest in new technologies.

It is more than a little blind to pretend that there hasn't been MASSIVE investment into technologies that obsolesce oil. Bio-fuel really sucks, and doesn't appear to be getting anywhere near enough improvement to compete with other alternatives, but bio-plastics are making fantastic gains. Battery technology research draws investment from just about all fields right now. Hybrid drive technology is a nice stop-gap, but don't pretend that it has slowed investment in hydrogen gas and cell technology, with sources such as termite bacteria among others, and fully electric vehicles. Fertilizers can come from other sources. Sure, post consumer waste will never produce enough to be more than a supplement, but nitrogen air extraction and sea water phosphate extraction are extremely promising.

Yes, 'peak oil' exists, but it isn't the huge problem that doomsayers and anti-human groups wish it was. We're almost out of the oil age already.
Click to expand...


You appear not to have read the paper.
 
Travis said:
Is anyone so delusional as to think that oil would last forever?

I'm sure someone does.....I probably just don't want to know it.
Click to expand...

well just a few days ago in the news the showed some Russians that claim they can proof that Oil will be produced in a very short time by some prozess in earth.

but i never folowed the story, guess its woo. but they seem to belive it will never end :)
 
Dave Rogers said:
Me too. I'm not enough of a chemist to analyse it, but I'm being deafened by the sound of woo alarms when I read it.

Dave
Click to expand...

someone should post it in the Science subforum, it surely gets ripped appart there. Unless its true
 
Travis said:
Is anyone so delusional as to think that oil would last forever?

I'm sure someone does.....I probably just don't want to know it.
Click to expand...

There are actually some nutballs who believe that oil is continually being made deep in the earth, and we'll never run out because abandoned oilfields will refill themselves after being allowed to rest for a while.

A

ETA Should have read the whole thread. I got ninja'd...
 
Travis said:
Is anyone so delusional as to think that oil would last forever?

I'm sure someone does.....I probably just don't want to know it.
Click to expand...

The oil in the ground will surely run out eventually, but if we can figure out an economic and sustainable way to make more of it, it could last almost forever.

Techno-optimists believe that this will happen. I don't know, but I don't think you can rule it out out of hand. Take algae-based biofuels for example. There is not yet an economical large-scale process, but I don't think you can be sure that there won't be in the future.

The path from here to there may involve creating a novel organism by genetic engineering for the purpose of making fuel from sunlight.
 
DC said:
you solved the storage problem?
Click to expand...

As far as I can tell part of the storage problem is more a problem that it is more economic to bury it, than to extract the energy out of the waste. There is also a political problem that some of the waste could be used for nefarious purpose (can't remember if that is correct) therefore for the sake of non proliferation we rather bury it , watch it over. But basically yeah we are just dumping energy in underground cave for the sake of it. The other part is that we generate a lot of short lived waste like gloves, suits etc...
 
Aepervius said:
As far as I can tell part of the storage problem is more a problem that it is more economic to bury it, than to extract the energy out of the waste. There is also a political problem that some of the waste could be used for nefarious purpose (can't remember if that is correct) therefore for the sake of non proliferation we rather bury it , watch it over. But basically yeah we are just dumping energy in underground cave for the sake of it. The other part is that we generate a lot of short lived waste like gloves, suits etc...
Click to expand...

i see the problem that there is not a single long time storage for the waste, nowere on this planet. But since decades we are producing a very dangerous waste we have no solution for storing it.
But you bring up a good point, would we actually create such a storage we will soon realize how expensive nuclear energy is.
 
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