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Merged Now What?

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Puppycow

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I understand the Brexit vote is technically non-binding, but how is this all going to play out given the result?
 
Looks like Malbec and people with views like him will be right - in the UK at least:

I reckon before the leave process is over we'll end up with double digit drops in GDP, double digit inflation, unemployment rate and we'll watch in horror as business after business pulls out of the UK :(
 
Time will tell.
Personally I too suspect England will be heading for a 10+ year recession and there is a reasonable chance the UK will fall apart as Scotland and maybe Wales will seek independence to return to the EU.

But we will see.
 
Maybe the public will sour on Brexit as the economic consequences become apparent? Then the government may have a political excuse to not move forward on leaving the EU?
 
The Don said:
I reckon before the leave process is over we'll end up with double digit drops in GDP, double digit inflation, unemployment rate and we'll watch in horror as business after business pulls out of the UK :(
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Highly unlikely.

Yes the pound has fallen lots, yes there will be turmoil in the financial markets for a while, but it'll take a minimum of 2 years before Brexit actually happens and the markets will stabilise and recover somewhat in the nearish future.

Not lots has actually changed in the fundamentals of the economy. I don't agree that GDP will fall a lot and unemployment will rise massively.

Most UK EU Trade agreements post Brexit don't really need to change all that much, we need to trade with the EU and the EU needs to trade with us.
 
Lukraak_Sisser said:
Time will tell.
Personally I too suspect England will be heading for a 10+ year recession and there is a reasonable chance the UK will fall apart as Scotland and maybe Wales will seek independence to return to the EU.

But we will see.
Click to expand...

Even if they do, there's no guarantee that the EU will accept them, especially if their economies are in the toilet.
 
lionking said:
Ibiza will go into immediate and long term recession....;)
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lol. I doubt it.

San Antonio might, but the place needs knocking down, giving a damn good scrubbing and rebuilding for a better clientele, like the rest of the island ;)
 
The Don said:
Looks like Malbec and people with views like him will be right - in the UK at least:

I reckon before the leave process is over we'll end up with double digit drops in GDP, double digit inflation, unemployment rate and we'll watch in horror as business after business pulls out of the UK :(
Click to expand...

Nan. I think it will barely be a single digit drop barely 1%/2% if at most. Market will continue to plunge fora few hours until people realize they can snap low price stuff and bet on global market not suffering much at least initially and the price will stabilize and rise again to reasonable amount.

At this moment it is just emotional. There is really no change. It was after all only a poll.

Now if brexit is enacted in law then in 2 years time or when real that ill be anotehr story.
 
El Greco said:
I predict the pound will quickly return to pre-referendum levels.
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So do I actually. IMO the Euro is fundamentally weaker and is actually in CTL+P mode with the ECB printing it 80billion a month currently.

its interesting that EURGBP hasnt moved that far considering, as the Euro has been walloped almost as much as GBP against the Dollar
 
Ambrosia said:
Highly unlikely.

Yes the pound has fallen lots, yes there will be turmoil in the financial markets for a while, but it'll take a minimum of 2 years before Brexit actually happens and the markets will stabilise and recover somewhat in the nearish future.

Not lots has actually changed in the fundamentals of the economy. I don't agree that GDP will fall a lot and unemployment will rise massively.

Most UK EU Trade agreements post Brexit don't really need to change all that much, we need to trade with the EU and the EU needs to trade with us.
Click to expand...

The EU may need to trade with the UK but whilst the UK does 50% of their business with the EU, the EU does about 7% of their business with the UK.

A lot has fundamentally changed in the economy - we will no longer be part of the largest economic zone in the world. I will find out from my clients in the coming weeks and months whether I'll still have a business. Firms like Nissan will need to determine whether they continue to invest in the UK or whether they allow their UK operations to wind down and investment instead to go to their EU plants.
 
The Don said:
Looks like Malbec and people with views like him will be right - in the UK at least:

I reckon before the leave process is over we'll end up with double digit drops in GDP, double digit inflation, unemployment rate and we'll watch in horror as business after business pulls out of the UK :(
Click to expand...

Unlike you to suddenly go all doom and despair Don. I just don't see it.

put your calm rational hat back on and re-assess in a day or two.

IMO when the rest of the EU starts to disintegrate again, financially and politically, the UK will look like a safe haven again.
 
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