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Northern Lights predictable?

NoahFence

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Hey smarter - than - me folks:

Is the Aurora a predictable, almost guaranteed event? I'd really like to be able to cross it off the bucket list. Should the wife and I decide to take a cruise or some other vacation to say, Iceland, would we be pretty much guaranteed to see it?
 
Hey smarter - than - me folks:

Is the Aurora a predictable, almost guaranteed event?

No, I'm afraid not...not even at the latitude you suggest. Reykjavik, Icleand is just a couple of degrees north of the latitude for the Anchorage, Alaska area (where I am) and auroral displays are not predictably visible here. You'll have a better chance farther North but you'll still be at the mercy of solar activity, weather, and moonlight.
 
Is September good?

Not so much. Days are still long at that time of year and the nights don't get well and truly dark...or not for long, anyway. For the darkest skies and longest viewing time, you'll need to make a winter trip.
 
Not so much. Days are still long at that time of year and the nights don't get well and truly dark...or not for long, anyway. For the darkest skies and longest viewing time, you'll need to make a winter trip.

A winter trip to Yukon...

Sad face.

Eh, gotta do what ya gotta do.
 
It is possible to see the aurora during the summer, just not terribly likely. I saw it in Fairbanks, AK in early August. You won't get the magnificent displays until it's really dark though, later in the year. If you're playing the numbers, go for a trip to the north as late in the year as you're able during a solar maximum and keep your fingers crossed for good weather, both meteorological and solar (well, bad solar weather, I suppose.) :) Best of luck, it's amazing to see. What got me was how fast something so huge was able to change as I watched.
 
Aurora Borealis

The northern lights or aurora borealis are predictable, but only in a limited and probabilistic fashion. The odds of an impressive display, and a display farther south than is normal, go up considerably in the wake of large solar flares or coronal mass ejections (CME), if Earth is in the path of the fast streaming ejected solar plasma. Unfortunately, the flares and CME are themselves only statistically predictable (there are more during the sun's active period and fewer during its quiet period, both of which are more predictable in an absolute sense). When there is a big flare that might set off an impressive aurora, you may only have a couple of days to get to aurora country or you will miss the show.

The best source for these short term predictions is Spaceweather.com ("space weather" being the fairly obvious choice of jargon to describe the current conditions in the solar system plasma environment; temperature, solar wind speed & particle density, & etc.). At the moment, there is a warning out for high latitude sky watchers on January 19, when Earth should intercept the wind from a large CME that erupted on January 16. See, not a lot of lead time here.

Otherwise, the only thing I can think of is to plan a trip reasonably far north, say central Canada longitude, where you can get into relatively dark skies fairly quickly. Time the trip in the dead of winter, when nights are longest, and you risk bad weather. Time the trip in comfortable summer, when nights are almost non-existent (been there, done that), and you risk never seeing a sky dark enough. So I am thinking spring or fall when you might still have good luck with weather, and there are still real nights at hand. Of course, you want to avoid full moon if possible. Maybe you just want to rent a condo and hang around for a month or so and see what happens.
 

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