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Nadar and the War

Diezel

Graduate Poster
Joined
Aug 1, 2001
Messages
1,309
I found this article quite interesting, bringing up some very good rebuttals to some of the anti-war arguments, mainly the "It's all about the oil!" argument.

http://www.fumento.com/military/nader.html

What really struck me was this idea:
But the ultimate problem with Nader's reasoning is that, if all we wanted was cheap abundant oil, we could get it peacefully by simply lifting oil-export sanctions against Iraq and demobilizing. Petroleum prices would plummet instantly, with the stock market rocketing at almost the same speed due both to cheap oil and the end of war fears.

It is so simple, but it is true! Eliminating the embargo would create a larger supply, bringing down the prices (as would the diminished fear of war.) So, if it was really just about oil, we would be better off letting Sadaam do whatever he likes and just buy his oil.

Oddly, I have never heard this rebuttal before...
 
I have heard this rebuttal. But I have yet to hear a cogent response to it.
 
Perhaps our current administration would like access to the oil without having to appease Saddam, who has proven unreliable?

I'll even admit this is an appealing idea, and seems a perfectly likely reason for hawks in the administration to desire war.

I just don't think they can sell it to the American people that way. Certainly not me.
 
gnome said:
Perhaps our current administration would like access to the oil without having to appease Saddam, who has proven unreliable?

I'll even admit this is an appealing idea, and seems a perfectly likely reason for hawks in the administration to desire war.

I just don't think they can sell it to the American people that way. Certainly not me.

Why? We haven't used or needed it in years. And Sadaam being unreliable would mean nothing to a free market. If he decided to not sell to the U.S., so what? We don't buy it now and we aren't hurting for oil. And the small fact that somebody else will sell us what we need would set in on him at some time, so he would sell it to us under our conditions soon enough.

Do you think if we win this war and occupy Iraq, we then have free reign to all the free oil we want?
 
Why the fsck would eliminating sanction wolve the oil problems? First of all, Saddam already sells oil to us, he just can't sell it for anything but barter of certain humanitarian goods. Secondly, had all restrictions been lifted, Iraq would simply have its price limited by OPEC anyway, with negligible total impact on oil prices.

This rebuttal is a non-starter.
 
Victor Danilchenko said:
Why the fsck would eliminating sanction wolve the oil problems? First of all, Saddam already sells oil to us, he just can't sell it for anything but barter of certain humanitarian goods. Secondly, had all restrictions been lifted, Iraq would simply have its price limited by OPEC anyway, with negligible total impact on oil prices.

This rebuttal is a non-starter.

Increased supply with no increase in demand leads to lower prices. And the elimination of the threat of war would also eliminate the "worried about future supplies" price hikes we have seen lately.
 
Victor Danilchenko said:
First of all, Saddam already sells oil to us, he just can't sell it for anything but barter of certain humanitarian goods. Secondly, had all restrictions been lifted, Iraq would simply have its price limited by OPEC anyway, with negligible total impact on oil prices.

First of all, they sell Oil to us, but they are limited in the total volume. They are capable of producing more than they are currently selling.

Secondly, OPEC cannot fix the price. They can set production limits (which will cause the price to go up), but when Iraq begins selling at closer to its capacity, it will mean more oil on the market. (OPEC has to ensure that all members get a share of the market.)

Thirdly, part of the reason why the price is high is not due to supply and demand, it is because people fear war and uncertainty, and it is this fear that is making prices go up. Once Iraq is attacked, the uncertainty goes away.
 
Diezel said:


Why? We haven't used or needed it in years. And Sadaam being unreliable would mean nothing to a free market. If he decided to not sell to the U.S., so what? We don't buy it now and we aren't hurting for oil. And the small fact that somebody else will sell us what we need would set in on him at some time, so he would sell it to us under our conditions soon enough.

Do you think if we win this war and occupy Iraq, we then have free reign to all the free oil we want?

in fact the amount of Iraqi oil being imported to the US is going up at present.

http://www.theage.com.au/text/articles/2003/02/23/1045935273673.htm

US oil firms use more Iraqi crude
Date: February 24 2003


By Colum Lynch
New York

American oil refineries have dramatically increased their reliance on Iraqi crude - even as the Bush Administration steps up preparations for a military attack on Baghdad - to offset a shortfall in oil imports caused by the recent political crisis in Venezuela.

The United States has more than doubled its consumption of Iraqi crude over the past two months, according to unpublished UN figures. The US Department of Energy, whose Iraqi import figures typically lag behind - by about 40 days - those of the United Nations, also recorded a sudden surge of Iraqi oil imports into the United States last week to more than 1 million barrels a day, US officials said.
 
Diezel said:
Do you think if we win this war and occupy Iraq, we then have free reign to all the free oil we want?

If we install a government friendly to the US, and help them stay in power... not free, but at pretty good prices.

I don't want us to do this, but I think it is believable as a goal.

If we weren't so gung ho about getting oil, I think that our foreign policy in the middle east would be more human-rights oriented. The drive for oil distorts our policy. Taints, I daresay.
 
Ralph Nader, soon to star in a remake of "Clueless." ...ad hominem

At a D.C. press conference earlier this month ...ad hominem, "the perverse priorities of the Bush/Cheney oiligarchy." ("Oiligarchy," get it?) These priorities, he said, "are driving the war against Iraq."

But among Nader's many lapses in thinking is that we already do "control" that oil, albeit not through force but through money. Without the world's largest oil-import market, that stuff below the sand is mere black goo.

this must be the most twisted piece of logic I have come across.



The Arab countries discovered during the 1973 embargo that if they didn't sell to us somebody else would. If only the Nixon administration had realized that, there would have been no oil crisis.

that is just silly. where was that somebody else? the infrastructure to sell oil is not set up overnight. the oil that was available as an alternative also cost more money. more money spent on oil pushes up prices and cuts the standard of living.

Nader also took the obligatory swipe at SUVs. To his credit, he did not ask "What would Jesus drive?" Nor did he claim that SUV drivers support terrorism. Instead, he cited safety studies to label the vehicles "weapons of mass destruction."

i do worry about the massive increase in small trucks on the roads, driven by people who don't understand what they are in charge of, and using more fuel than is necessary to get from point a to point b.

Nader also disparaged the hydrogen fuel-cell technology that increasingly is being touted as an eventual replacement for gasoline-powered engines and other energy-using devices.

This is quite strange, given that hydrogen power has long been the darling of the anti-fossil-fuel lobby. Indeed, it's the subject of a new book by Nader's fellow radical, Jeremy Rifkin, who claims the technology will usher in utopia. But all that changed the moment Bush threw his support behind developing the technology during his State of the Union Address.

so there is something wrong with nader having his own opinion on hydrogen. has nader ever claimed himself it would usher in a new utopia? no evidence has been give.

Now, says Nader, hydrogen "will do virtually nothing" for us until around 2020, when "some hydrogen vehicles may be viable." You'd never know that hydrogen fuel-cell trucks and cars are already on the road, or that it's widely estimated that they could make up a large part of our vehicle fleet within a decade.

and so are solar cars, but they aren't going to replace cars either in the near future. the vehicles on the roads are very much in the experimental stage, hence the use of trucks. they have plenty of room to hold the bulky equipment currently needed. hydrogen may be a big improvenment, but it has to be made, a very energy intensive operation, and the energy available from hydrogen is much lower in volume than is available from petrol. much more promising are the hybrid petrol/battery powered cars, which are actually being sold to (wealthy) consumers now.

As to measures we could take in the meantime to decrease oil imports, somehow Nader forgot to mention government bans over the last 20 years on oil activity covering more than 300 million acres of federal land onshore and more than 460 million acres offshore.

alaska, as i recall, has been opened up for oil. much of that area that is banned probably doesn't have the promise that alaska has. that is, if there was oil there, it would be drilled. or if there is oil there, no one wants it being drilled and ruining a fragile sector of the US.

Just one of these reserves, the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), is estimated to contain from 10 to 16 billion barrels of recoverable oil. That alone could replace about three years of imports.

But the ultimate problem with Nader's reasoning is that, if all we wanted was cheap abundant oil, we could get it peacefully by simply lifting oil-export sanctions against Iraq and demobilizing. Petroleum prices would plummet instantly, with the stock market rocketing at almost the same speed due both to cheap oil and the end of war fears.

perhaps the military has it's own barrow to push. Also, the US, however, despite the absurd claim above, does not control this oil, Saddam does. And the US is buying plenty of that oil now. As for not needing it, if you look at the political stability of the other oil producing nations, the stability of oil is a bit unsure. Saudi, Venezuala, Iraq, Russia, Kuwait, etc. All countries that cannot be relied upon for any length of time to keep the supplies going.

All of this couldn't fail to spur the economy, putting Bush and the GOP on the path to continued dominance of the White House and Congress.

We don't need military force to secure all the Mideast oil we want; this green stuff guarantees our access to all we want.
Nader proffered the seemingly plausible idea that the U.S. could be seizing Iraq to divvy up its resources among some American oil companies. But he immediately contradicted himself when he pointed out that Russia, China, and France already have major contractual interests there.

why the US insists on using force when other methods would be preferable, I don't know

Are we really going to yank all those wells from beneath the noses of three of the world's most powerful nations?

Consider this, too: Doesn't U.S. "Big Oil" profit from the sanctions currently in place, since restricted Iraqi exports prop up the price for all the oil they drill elsewhere?

Instead, Bush is about to embark on a very risky move for his presidency and his party. The logical reason is the one Bush gives: Saddam poses a serious regional threat now and a serious worldwide threat in the near future. He will never stop until he gets the Bomb, along with some shiny ICBMs to toss wherever he pleases.

Would he use them to kill, or merely to intimidate, the rest of the world? Do we want to wait a few years to find out?

A post-Saddam Iraq carries with it not the promise of secure oil — we already have that. Rather, it carries the guarantee of a more secure world.

Risky indeed. Risky most of all for the Iraqi civilians. Dubya, like his father, will be the patsy. there are plenty more presidential candidates where they came from. And according to http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/02/24/1046063965588.html the US itself still has no idea about what it actually wants to achieve from the war. there is still deep division within the administration. how can you start a war when you haven't got your aims sorted out yet?

By the way .... ad hominem

I believe it is a lot more than just oil. It is also about a military that seeks to legitimise existence by doing something to justify the trillions it absorbs.
 
Basically the problem is that Fumento doesn't understand the basics. He makes that clear when he says..."if all we wanted was cheap abundant oil".

Since that isn't the hypothetical US goal of the war for oil camp the rest of his point is worthless. Whether or not you agree with people like Chomsky etc... they don't make the above statement. They state that part of the reason for war in Iraq is to regain control over Iraq's oil resources. Note... "regain control over" is not the same as "gain access to". If you don't understand the difference then you haven't taken the time to read and understand the war for oil argument and therefor you shouldn't be debating it. Read Chomsky since he's consistent and clear on the subject. You see it really doesn't matter whether you think Chomsky is right or not. Fumento is arguing a different point. (I realize Fumento is discussing Nader and not Chomsky, but I'm assuming here that Nader understands the oil argument for what it really is.)
 
Diezel

Increased supply with no increase in demand leads to lower prices.
Except that Iraq already supplies oil, and their production capacity is greatly limiyed due to their oil rigs having been destroyed in the first world war; this means that the change in oil supply the lifting of the sanctions would effect, would be small -- which was why I said that such an act would have a negligible impact on oil prices.

And the elimination of the threat of war would also eliminate the "worried about future supplies" price hikes we have seen lately.
this is true, but kinda self-referrential, don't you think?
 
I'm going to try to cover all three of your posts in one. I'm a little behind and this will be catch-up. If you want a specific point answered, just ask me and I will try.

First, I understand the difference in points, but the point that is missed by Chomsky, et. all, is that we never had "control", so we can't "regain control". OPEC has the control, as evidenced by in the early 70's and pointed out by Victor. So, even if we took the country over, we wouldn't have anymore control than we did before. If anyone doesn't understand the War for Oil argument, it is the people arguing about "regain of control".

Now, AUP argues that it is twist of logic to state that we control the oil market, because we are the biggest customer. This is no twist of logic at all. Come to Detroit and talk to a Tier I, Tier II and sometimes even Tier III auto supplier. They are controlled by the Big 3. Because they are so singular customer focused, they are sometimes at the mercy of that customer. So, yes, a dominant consumer can become a controlling factor.

And yes, they are producing oil now, but at 1/3 their pre-war capacity. With the lifting of the emargo would come spare parts and help to return them to their pre-war capacity of around 3.5 million gallons/day. Then the market would be flooded with a surplus, driving prices down.

Yes, it is kind of self-referential, but true. Eliminate the threat of war and you eliminate the fear. All indicators point to the fact that if we wanted cheaper gas prices, the best thing to do would be to leave Saddam alone and start doing business with him.
 
Victor Danilchenko said:
Except that Iraq already supplies oil, and their production capacity is greatly limiyed due to their oil rigs having been destroyed in the first world war; this means that the change in oil supply the lifting of the sanctions would effect, would be small -- which was why I said that such an act would have a negligible impact on oil prices.
You are right; there capacity is limited by their oil rigs. (Some were destroyed in the last war, some are old and need to be replaced.) However:
- They still have the ability to produce and sell more than they currently are. Thus, they have the ability to increase supply (while demand would stay constant)
- Once the sanctions are lifted, they can fix or repair their oil infrastructure. This will increase their capacity further. (We could eliminate sanctions now, but then we would have no guarantee Saddam wouldn't spend the money on rearming)
 
Diezel said:
First, I understand the difference in points, but the point that is missed by Chomsky, et. all, is that we never had "control", so we can't "regain control".

Well if you understand the difference then why did Fumento's rebuttle to another completely different point "really strike you"? I suppose because it was so incredibly embarassingly wrong? Yeah it struck me that way too. It struck me how he sticks his foot in his mouth and points out clearly to the whole word that he doesn't understand the argument and then goes on to argue against it. Fumento should stick to medical stories. Clearly middle east politics is not his strength.

Strange though, that in these lucid moments of clarity and understanding, you point out that Chomsky mistakenly says "regain" control. You'd think that a guy like Chomsky, who doesn't toss words around carelessly, would come to notice that he consistently in every document, speech, and interview uses the word regain again and again. That's a pretty big oversite. One has to wonder why he says that... or alternately one could just dismiss it and say he's wrong in a vacuum of ignorance so complete tha one's head explodes.

Seriously folks, anyone who thinks oil isn't a factor in middle east foreign policy, and yes... the current agression against Iraq, is either ignorant or a complete fringe lunactic. It's definitely a serious factor.

I'll leave you with some quotes from the history of the first gulf war... All these are from interviews conducted by PBS - or at least reproduced on their site in the oral history section.

"Q: In those early hours, did you think Kuwait was worth fighting a war over?
Powell: I think that was the question...did it measure up as a regime, as a nation and, frankly, as the source of twenty percent of the world's oil. "

On saddam Hussein and why being in the middle east is of strategic importance...

Dick Cheyney : "I think if Saddam wasn't there that his successor probably wouldn't be notably friendlier to the United States than he is. I also look at that part of the world as of vital interest to the United States for the next hundred years it's going to be the world's supply of oil."

Margeret thatcher discussing reasons for Gulf War One...

"There was a secondary factor there. That part is the oil center of the world. Oil is vital to the economy of the world. If you didn't stop him, and didn't turn him back, he would have gone over the border to Saudi Arabia, over to Bahrain, to Dubai.......and right down the west side of the Gulf and in fact could have got access and control of 65% of the world's oil reserves, from which he could have blackmailed every nation. So there were two things, aggressors must be stopped and turned back, and he must not get control of this enormously powerful economic weapon."

Scowcroft...

"Q: Did you think the invasion of Kuwait mattered? If so, why?

Scowcroft: Yes, I thought it mattered, a lot.

"Principally because there was a struggle and had been a struggle going on within OPEC over, if you will, control of OPEC and it was struggle basically between Saudi Arabia and the radicals, over keeping production flowing and keeping prices reasonable or trying to squeeze, if you will, the industrialised world.

And the notion of Iraq, which was an oil powerhouse in itself, acquiring the Kuwaiti resources and thus perhaps of being able to dominate, OPEC was a tremendous danger to the United States and to the industrialised world.

I thought it made a lot of difference, aside from the issue of flat naked aggression in and of itself.

Q: ... At the heart of this ... was oil ...

Scowcroft: No, at the heart was naked aggression against an unoffending country, that was the firm and legal position, but what gave enormous urgency to it was the issue of oil. Yes that transformed it."
 
Yet none of those quotes does anything to prove your contention that the US is trying to "regain" control of oil interests - you only appeal to authority when you state that Chomsky picks his words carefully, so he must know what he is talking about.

To "regain" control, we must have had control. I need to see evidence that we had such control. It is funny you rail against Fumento for answering a strawman, yet it seems you have done so. Nobody said oil interests are a part of this equation, but I am rallying against those that state this war is "about oil". Each quote you have provided confirms my statement.

Another part of the equation is the substantial US economic investments by US based companies in the region, all of which are paying US business taxes. Why isn't anybody rallying that the war is "all about the taxes"? The first sign I saw after stepping onto Middle East soil for the first time was for KFC!

And here's the thing, if this war is all about securing cheap gas, it makes no sense, or we really don't need it anyway. For the last 10 years, all during the sanctions, gas prices in the US have hovered near all time lows (adjusted for inflation.) Only recently, with the threat of war, have the prices risen. I'm pretty sure most people know that you don't fix a problem that doesn't exist! Are we going to start a war to secure prices to a level that they are already at?
 
I must apologize to RandFan. I did not see his post about the same subject (not the same article, but the same questioning of "War for Oil".) After a quick scan of that thread, I don't know if any more can be said than what has already been said.
 
>Yet none of those quotes does anything to prove your
>contention that the US is trying to "regain" control of oil
>interests

That isn't MY contention, that is Chomsky's. I was rebutting Fumentos argument which uses an incorrect assertion about what the war for oil camp claims. I feel no need to defend Chomsky's argument. I merely pointed out that you dismiss his use of the word without understanding why he uses it.

>To "regain" control, we must have had control. I need to see
>evidence that we had such control. It is funny you rail against
>Fumento for answering a strawman, yet it seems you have
>done so.

When I used Chomsky's wording it was in the context of Fumentos assertion being wrong. I never intended to argue whether Chomsky was right or wrong and I carefully pointed out that it didnt' matter whether you agreed with Chomsky or not. Fumento's argument is incorrect either way.

>Nobody said oil interests are a part of this equation, but I am
>rallying against those that state this war is "about oil". Each
>quote you have provided confirms my statement.

I assume you mean aren't. Your whole thread was about how wonderful Fumento's argument was and that's what I answered. Clearly Fumento was wrong. After I pointed out that the war for oil argument had nothing to do with cheap and abundant supply as Fumento claims you attacked Chomsky's use of the word regain. Why should I care about that? The point is that Fumento does not provide a proper argument and therefor his rebuttal of Nader is worthless.

My quotes in the last post were not to prove Chomsky was right. That was entirely because there was an implication in this thread by you and others that oil was not a major factor and it clearly is. So why is Nader foolish if he discusses control of oil? Even if Fumento hadn't of put his foot in his mouth with his talk of cheap abundant supply and embargoes he'd still be incorrect in his criticisms of Nader. Really that part of the argument belongs in the other thread.

>And here's the thing, if this war is all about securing cheap gas,
>it makes no sense, or we really don't need it anyway.

See.. you say you understand the arguments being made when people discuss control of oil resources (as opposed to access to) as a motivation for war with Iraq, but then you make a statement like this, which clearly shows that you don't understand. I'm not sure what I can say to you except that "securing cheap gas" is not what people are talking about as a motivation for war. It doesn't matter if "we don't need it anyway" since that's not what we (ie the US/Britain) want.
 
svero:

Because Fumento worded his rebuttal in a way slightly different than the way the "War for Oil" camp worded their objection does not mean Fumento was wrong.

War for Oil camp: We are only going to war to get control of the oil resources.

Fumento: We already have control of the oil resources, by being the chief consumer of the export.

Forget all the other symantics around the issues. I didn't even bother saying "regain". Can you agree that the "War for Oil" camp believes it is about control of the resources? Then, can you see that Fumento is only arguing that we already have control of those resources now?

Now, if you want to argue that Fumento is wrong and we don't have control of those resources (by being the chief consumer), we can argue that. But dismissing his argument as a strawman is false. You have picked a single point in a multi-point article to dismiss the whole argument.

And I admit I am just as guilty of doing the same of Chomsky's statement. For that, I apoligize. I still don't agree with his statement, but I can't dismiss the argument over a single statement.
 

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