Split Thread Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla

[plague311]

Agreed... but are they better off with Musk at the helm, than a more normal and competent CEO? I don't think so.

ETA: wow... TSLA losses now surpass half a trillion in market cap for the year.

Yeah, the losses are massive and going down more and more every day. It's showing at $137 right now.

I am all for it. I have no investments in Tesla, and I think Elmo is a ******* douche. I hope he drills it all into the ground and ends up having to sell it, or gets the boot, or something.

Elmo got lucky and hired the right people, as was mentioned before, but there's more to it than that. He should let Tesla buy him out and stick with Twitter. That way I can continue to watch this fall apart even more and still feel good.

 

[trustbutverify]

I actually really wish he wasn’t doing this.

I know a lot of people had him pegged as a charlatan from the start and they may have been right. But that said he almost certainly has brought value to Tesla and SpaceX just by wrangling the talented engineers and generating the necessary hype. I never bought into the idea that he was some kind of mercurial genius (unlike some on these forums), but I do think SpaceX and Tesla are good things.

Now Musk is apparently arguing with a Tesla investor on Twitter. As usual, Musk presumably thinks his comebacks are witty and clever, but they are stupid and so is his general approach to Twitter.

https://twitter.com/steinkobbe/status/1605309991304327168?s=46&t=HFzPR1-PI9GzY_RCAEvymw

I never thought he was a renaissance man, but this level of blundering stupidity is unexpected.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

I don't know about that SpaceX thing. We were left with no manned space launch system for quite a number of years. Would lack of SpaceX existing have made NASA more efficient in manned missions, and/or given them more funding? I really rather doubt it.

If NASA were given sufficient funding to create their own system rather than the whole project being used as a source of corporate welfare, it would be much further along. NASA have been starved of funding for a long time.

 

[The Don]

Yeah, the losses are massive and going down more and more every day. It's showing at $137 right now.

I am all for it. I have no investments in Tesla, and I think Elmo is a ******* douche. I hope he drills it all into the ground and ends up having to sell it, or gets the boot, or something.

Elmo got lucky and hired the right people, as was mentioned before, but there's more to it than that. He should let Tesla buy him out and stick with Twitter. That way I can continue to watch this fall apart even more and still feel good.

IMO Tesla Motors is vastly over-priced and the market valuation cannot in any way be justified objectively.

The electric vehicles market is rapidly maturing and although Tesla has had significant advantages technologically and as an early market leader, its long term future is likely to be something like BMW, a niche maker of volume prestige products.

Meanwhile they will come increasingly under competition from existing auto-makers like Kia, VAG, Mercedes, Toyota et al. who really are getting their collective acts together and from new entrants from China who stand to sweep up the value end of the market.

IMO Tesla's "true" value is 10%-20% of its current market capitalisation.

 

[Samson]

IMO Tesla Motors is vastly over-priced and the market valuation cannot in any way be justified objectively.

The electric vehicles market is rapidly maturing and although Tesla has had significant advantages technologically and as an early market leader, its long term future is likely to be something like BMW, a niche maker of volume prestige products.

Meanwhile they will come increasingly under competition from existing auto-makers like Kia, VAG, Mercedes, Toyota et al. who really are getting their collective acts together and from new entrants from China who stand to sweep up the value end of the market.

IMO Tesla's "true" value is 10%-20% of its current market capitalisation.

The chart shows another halving is perfectly possible, and.merely makes the stock 200% more expensive than pre covid.

 

[jeremyp]

IMO Tesla Motors is vastly over-priced and the market valuation cannot in any way be justified objectively.

The electric vehicles market is rapidly maturing and although Tesla has had significant advantages technologically and as an early market leader, its long term future is likely to be something like BMW, a niche maker of volume prestige products.

Meanwhile they will come increasingly under competition from existing auto-makers like Kia, VAG, Mercedes, Toyota et al. who really are getting their collective acts together and from new entrants from China who stand to sweep up the value end of the market.

IMO Tesla's "true" value is 10%-20% of its current market capitalisation.

The question that interests me at the moment is whether Elon Musk going back to Tesla would have a positive or negative effect on its market cap.

Until he took over Twitter, Musk's management "style" has never really had the spotlight it. It's now fairly apparent that he is not any good at it. Maybe, now that people have realised Musk is not a god, they will start examining the fundamentals of Tesla: firstly, you are correct about the share price. Tesla is vastly overvalued. Secondly, Tesla is in a bad position in the industry. Competition is increasing and Tesla doesn't really know how to put a car into production. I think it's missed the boat as a volume producer and its products are not good enough to compete in the Audi/BMW space. Build quality is allegedly terrible and some of the cars e.g. model 3 look cheap even though they are not.

Tesla needs somebody who knows how to run a car company and Twitter tells us that Musk is not that person.

 

[Segnosaur]

Tesla would have been a better thing (but not so massively overvalued) without Musk, and without SpaceX, NASA would have been much further along in the rocket programme.

I don't know about that SpaceX thing. We were left with no manned space launch system for quite a number of years. Would lack of SpaceX existing have made NASA more efficient in manned missions, and/or given them more funding? I really rather doubt it.

Keep in mind that both Blue Origins and Boeing have both had some success. (Blue Origins has several manned space flights, and Boeing has run a resupply mission to the IIS and has a manned mission planned for 2023.)

Admittedly both of these are trailing SpaceX, who seemed to have more early success. But, its possible that without SpaceX, both Blue Origins and Boeing might have gotten a bigger chunk of cash (which might have helped them speed up their early development.)

 

[lobosrul5]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/21/business/tesla-fsd-8-car-crash/index.html

Tesla ‘full self-driving’ triggered an eight-car crash, a driver tells police

Rutt-row Elon.

 

[mgidm86]

About the 8 car pileup...

The pileup took place just hours after Tesla CEO Elon Musk had announced that Tesla’s driver-assist software “full self-driving” was available to anyone in North America who requested it. Tesla had previously restricted access to drivers with high safety scores on its rating system.

“Full self-driving” is designed to keep up with traffic, steer in the lane and abide by traffic signals. It requires an attentive human driver prepared to take full control of the car at any moment. It’s delighted some drivers but also alarmed others with its limitations. Drivers are warned by Tesla when they install “full self-driving” that it “may do the wrong thing at the worst time.”

Gee, I wonder if Tesla will be sued anyways? Jeebus!

Then again, at least in California, the person who rear-ends another car is legally at fault, barring any extenuating circumstances. The theory is that you were not following at a safe distance, and half the people on the road drive bumper to bumper at 70 mph around here.

However, if this car slowed down right after switching lanes in front of other cars that is a different matter. Not sure about that part of the story.

It may not be the Tesla/driver that is legally at fault.

ETA:
I think that law also covers a car broken down in the middle of the road on a blind turn, hitting a rock that had rolled down a hill and stopped in the road, person in a wheelchair. Your fault. Again, the reasoning is that you were going too fast for the conditions.

 

[lobosrul5]

About the 8 car pileup...





Gee, I wonder if Tesla will be sued anyways? Jeebus!

Then again, at least in California, the person who rear-ends another car is legally at fault, barring any extenuating circumstances. The theory is that you were not following at a safe distance, and half the people on the road drive bumper to bumper at 70 mph around here.

However, if this car slowed down right after switching lanes in front of other cars that is a different matter. Not sure about that part of the story.

It may not be the Tesla/driver that is legally at fault.

ETA:
I think that law also covers a car broken down in the middle of the road on a blind turn, hitting a rock that had rolled down a hill and stopped in the road, person in a wheelchair. Your fault. Again, the reasoning is that you were going too fast for the conditions.

If you have to stop and you get rear-ended its pretty much never your fault... if you stomp the breaks just for funzies, or to brake test the vehicle behind you... its gonna be your fault. At least in my area.

Anyways, no. It won't legally be Tesla's fault I'm sure. But it is weird that they can't legally have self driving cars, while selling cars that will, given perfect conditions and no glitches, drive themselves.

 

[dudalb]

If NASA were given sufficient funding to create their own system rather than the whole project being used as a source of corporate welfare, it would be much further along. NASA have been starved of funding for a long time.

Forgive me, but you seem opposed to the mere idea of Private Space Travel;
What is wrong with a government hiring a private company to do work if it is the most economical way to get it done?

 

[lobosrul5]

TSLA had yet another no good rotten very bad day. Now down about 36% for December, while the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) is down "just" 10% or so for the month. In other words, disaster, even compared to the most appropriate index to compare them to.

 

[angrysoba]

TSLA had yet another no good rotten very bad day. Now down about 36% for December, while the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) is down "just" 10% or so for the month. In other words, disaster, even compared to the most appropriate index to compare them to.

“Masterful gambit, sir!”

 

[plague311]

"Bold strategy, Cotton. Lets see if it pays off for him."

 

[Segnosaur]

If you have to stop and you get rear-ended its pretty much never your fault... if you stomp the breaks just for funzies, or to brake test the vehicle behind you... its gonna be your fault. At least in my area.

That seems kind of... weird/backwards. We are always encouraged "leave enough stopping distance". And in my driver's ed class (decades ago, but I don't think things have changed that much) we were told that if there is a rear-end collision the person behind is ALWAYS at fault. (Well, assuming nobody is going backwards.)

The instructor gave a story about one of his students. She was brand new and nervous. The first time behind the wheel, she saw a stoplight turn red and stopped, but she was far away from the intersection (i.e. still had 50 yards or so to go.) Someone hit her car. The instructor thought "this won't go well for the student" but the police told the second driver that it was all his fault.

Anyways, no. It won't legally be Tesla's fault I'm sure. But it is weird that they can't legally have self driving cars, while selling cars that will, given perfect conditions and no glitches, drive themselves.

One of the weird things about technology.

Tesla (or any other company) can in theory make a driverless system that is safer/outperforms a human 9 times out of 10, something that can avoid accidents that a human might either cause themselves, or are unable to avoid. But if it fails that one time out of 10, it will be see as evidence of "not ready for use" (even if the automated system didn't CAUSE the problem, but just couldn't avoid it.)

I don't really know if Tesla's system is safer than humans driving. But its going to be hard to get people to accept it even if it is.

 

[mgidm86]

If you have to stop and you get rear-ended its pretty much never your fault... if you stomp the breaks just for funzies, or to brake test the vehicle behind you... its gonna be your fault. At least in my area.

Anyways, no. It won't legally be Tesla's fault I'm sure. But it is weird that they can't legally have self driving cars, while selling cars that will, given perfect conditions and no glitches, drive themselves.

That can be an extenuating circumstance and could be argued for sure. But again, the other driver was too close. It would need to be proven. "I thought I saw a squirrel"

That second paragraph should allow a lawsuit but I'm no lawyer. Tesla breaks the law selling cars that can be operated autonomously, writes the software, the software causes a crash, supposedly.

 

[Puppycow]

TSLA had yet another no good rotten very bad day. Now down about 36% for December, while the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) is down "just" 10% or so for the month. In other words, disaster, even compared to the most appropriate index to compare them to.

Tesla shares tumble, on track for worst month ever

Dec 22 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) shares are on track for their worst month ever as a sell-off deepened on Thursday over worries about softening demand for electric cars and Chief Executive Elon Musk's distraction with Twitter.

The stock dropped almost 10% on Thursday to their lowest level since September 2020 after the automaker's website showed it was offering $7,500 discounts on Model 3 and Model Y electric vehicles delivered in the United States this month.

 

[angrysoba]

Tesla shares tumble, on track for worst month ever

Why would the demand for electric cars be softening?

Surely if anything, this is a good time for Tesla. One of Elon Musk's biggest fanboys, Jordan Peterson, is currently decrying Canada's decision to move to sales of zero-emission vehicles who is also now leaning into his catch phrase of "up yours, woke moralists!"

Link

 

[Puppycow]

Why would the demand for electric cars be softening?

Surely if anything, this is a good time for Tesla.

The shares were overvalued to begin with, and are simply coming closer to what one might reasonably expect them to be worth.

I've posted this before, but even at the current share price, Tesla's market cap is over twice that of Toyota, but Toyota's earnings are more than twice Tesla's. The P/E ratio is over three times higher than Toyota.

Frankly, I think that Musk's antics are harming the Tesla brand. If you want an electric vehicle, Tesla is not the only option. Their market share is declining.

Why Tesla’s Market Share Is Set To Plunge In 2023

 

[Aridas]

Forgive me, but you seem opposed to the mere idea of Private Space Travel;
What is wrong with a government hiring a private company to do work if it is the most economical way to get it done?

Caveat - IF it's actually the most economical way to do it.