More Zammit Silliness

Kevin_Lowe

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Check out this web page for a festival of fallacies:

http://atl-perimeter.hiexpress.com/pages/scientific_proof_for_the_existence_of_god.html

I have sent the following email to them. Let's see what response I get:


Dear site maintainers,

I am a PhD candidate at the University of Queensland's Philosophy department, and I have some questions about the "Zepro Formula".

1. How do you figure out the odds of the universe's physical laws being any particular way? We only have one universe to look at. Did the person who wrote this have the power to see into other universes?

2. Why do you think that one in a billion, billion, billion, billion equals zero? It doesn't. It equals one in a billion, billion, billion, billion. It's a very small amount, not zero.

3. How can you talk meaningfully of the odds of life arising, when the only cases in which we are around to calculate the odds are the cases in which life arises? If life had never arisen we would not be around to see it.

It's like you went into a cupboard with ten coins and kept tossing them until you got ten heads. Then you let us into the closet and said "Look, ten heads! What are the odds?". You can't talk about the odds, because we don't get to see the coins until we've been let into the closet (life arises).

4. Since there are so many terrible things in the world that are not the fault of human beings (asteroid impacts, leprosy, congenital deformities), but rather the fault of the universe, why should we even care if the Zepro-Forumula God exists? They don't seem to be a very nice God.

Thanks in advance,

Kevin Lowe.
 
This is the same place I pointed out in this thread: http://www.randi.org/vbulletin/showthread.php?s=&threadid=36669

I too have sent them an email, in which I pointed out that Zammit's real standing in our society is a lot lower than he gives himself credit for. I suggested that they might like to disassociate themselves from him if they wished to retain any credibility at all. I'll copy the email when I get home.
 
From the site:
"Probability theory is the use of mathematics and statistics to forecast the outcome of uncertain events."
Odds are, I must have slept through that class.
 
Well that page is nothing but sillyness isnt it :)

I'll take the time to point out just a few of the many intellectual dishonesties in that "Scientific Proof of God's Existence" article:

Darwin's theory of evolution claims that the first living cell was accidentally created from just the right, random combination of ingredients over millions of years
Really? Oh, I'm afraid it doesnt. Origins of the life have nothing to do with Darwinian Evolution. Evolution only applies to life when it exists, chemogenesis is a whole 'nother ballfield. Furthermore, chemogenesis does NOT state random "ingredients" came together into the first cell, there are quite a few inbetween steps.

This image will give you an example of those missing steps:
image001.gif


From this thread:
As to the formation of life:

Living things as we know them are made of organic materials. In many instances, the organic materials are organized as chains of amino acids to form proteins. Proteins are "the building blocks of life," and amino acids are "the building blocks of proteins."

In a series of famous experiments by Miller and Urey (and others), organic materials (water, ammonia, hydrogen and methane) were put into a container and were subjected to electrical arcs (to simulate lightning). In a very short time (less than a week), amino acids and other organic compounds appeared in the container. There was no human creator, no designer... these things just formed under ordinary conditions.

If the same forces are at work for billions of years, the formation of life becomes probable. Not just possible, but highly probable.

Interesting, the author insists biologists believe this life came together by "chance" and "accident", however if the author would have taken 10 seconds of time to perform a bit of outside reading, he would have found more than enough mechanisms to account for the first formations of life outside of what he believes is chance.
  • Panspermy, which says life came from someplace other than earth. This theory, however, still doesn't answer how the first life arose.
  • Proteinoid microspheres [Fox 1960, 1984; Fox and Dose 1977; Fox et al. 1995; Pappelis and Fox 1995]. This theory gives a plausible account of how some replicating structures, which might well be called alive, could have arisen. Its main difficulty is explaining how modern cells arose from the microspheres.
  • Clay crystals [Cairn-Smith 1985]. This says that the first replicators were crystals in clay. Though they don't have a metabolism or respond to the environment, these crystals carry information and reproduce. Again, there is no known mechanism for moving from clay to DNA.
  • Emerging hypercycles. This proposes a gradual origin of the first life, roughly in the following stages: (1) A primordial soup of simple organic compounds. This seems to be almost inevitable. (2) Nucleo-proteins, somewhat like modern tRNA [de Duve 1995b] or PNA [Nelson et al. 2000], and semi-catalytic. (3) Hypercycles, or pockets of primitive biochemical pathways which include some approximate self-replication. (4) Cellular hypercycles, in which more complex hypercycles are enclosed in a primitive membrane. (5) First simple cell. Complexity theory suggests that the self-organization is not improbable. This view of abiogenesis is the current front-runner.
  • The iron-sulfur world [Russell et al. 1997; Wachtershauser 2000]. It has been found that all the steps for the conversion of carbon monoxide into peptides can occur at high temperature and pressure, catalyzed by iron and nickel sulfides. Such conditions exist around submarine hydrothermal vents.
  • Polymerization on sheltered organophilic surfaces [Smith et al. 1999]. The first self-replicating molecules may have formed within tiny indentations of silica-rich surfaces, so that the surrounding rock was its first cell wall.
  • Something which nobody has thought of yet.

Good lordy, chance and the Laws of Physics, who knew!

The author might have a valid point if his characterization of evolution wasnt so terribly inaccurate.

But the origins of life aren't the only mysterious phenomena in the universe. In 1973, an astrophysicist and cosmologist by the name of Brandon Carter developed a theory called the Anthropic Principle, which states that the physical constants in the universe have been formed in the only way possible for the creation of life.
If I remember correctly, a book written by Richard Dawkins titled "River Out of Eden", some "guy" who's name I have no idea might be used a nice supercomputer to test exactly how malleable our physical constants and conditions really are in allowing our universe to exist.

It appears the Physical Constants can theoretically be set to different wildly different values and still produce rather long-lived stars and lengthy chains of organic macromolecules. If I can find the specific information on this, I will post it.

Perhaps, if the universe were rewound, and the physical constants were something other than their current values, there could exist a group of religious apolegetic Aliens arguing that life could not exist with very weak gravitational force and very intense strong nuclear force.

The author appears to mistake Anthropic Principle as something which describes the permission of human life.

The anthropic principle is an argument against an omnipotent creator. If God can do anything, He could create life in a universe whose conditions do not allow for it.

Scientists' Big Bang theory states that the universe was created about fifteen to twenty billion years ago from a giant explosion in the Cosmic Energy Web.
The Big Bang was not an explosion. It was an expansion. Besides the fact that it got bigger over time, the Big Bang has almost nothing in common with an explosion.

Regardless of whether this theory is correct, the fact remains that the universe itself contains many physical relationships that have remained constant.
Well, I couldnt tell you why the Physical Constants are their current values and not others (I probably couldnt tell you why you are *you* rather than someone else either), but I've already described above that life and long-lived stars can form even with wildly varied values.

There is always the possibility that there have been numerous previous universes, each with their own set of Physical Constants which either allow or disallow life. Given that, if the universe's Physical Constants were randomized at the beginning of time (yes, literally the beginning of time), in that case, wondering about the Physical Constants is something which may seem like something worthy of framing into a question, but is ultimately meaningless.

Particle mass ratios. All the electrons and protons in the universe have an exact mass ratio--a proton is 1836 times more massive than an electron. If this ratio were slightly bigger or smaller, molecules could not form and life would be impossible.
It appears the electron-proton mass ratio is in fact dependent on the mass of the proton. The electron mass will be idealized in relation to the mass of the proton (the mass of the proton itself idealizes itself according to yet other Physical Constants). Its much like scaling one side of an image, then the other side scales itself appropriately. While the hypothetical differenciation in particle-mass ratios is something to comtemplate, its something that is rather incoherent to propose in the first place.

Constant mass. If the total mass of the universe were slightly larger, too much deuterium would cause all stars to burn so fast that life wouldn't develop, and if this total mass were less, no helium would exist and stars couldn't produce the elements necessary for life.
The existence of Deuterium in stars is one of the arguments in favour of the big bang theory over the steady state theory. Stellar fusion destroys deuterium and there are no known processes other than the big bang itself which produce deuterium.

It would be helpful if the author had a clue...

Star distance. If the distance between stars in the universe were slightly less, the gravitational pull of stars would be so great that planetary orbits would be upset, creating extreme temperature changes that would destroy life. If this distance were greater than it is, the heavy fragments thrown out by exploding stars would be so thinly dispersed that no planets could ever be formed.
Its a good thing the Earth is located about 2/3 out from the center of the galaxy isnt it. There arent a huge cluster of stars such as the ones located in the center of the galaxy, there isnt the absence of stars such as the ones further out. Again, the magnitude of this "coincidence" is on the same orders as why you are *you* and not another person.

Key elements. The three elements beryllium, carbon and oxygen have exact energy levels in their atomic nucleuses. Beryllium is so unstable that it slows down the fusion rate of stars. If it were just a bit more stable, these stars would explode and many of the elements necessary for life wouldn't be formed. If beryllium were even more unstable than it is now, star fusion would be slowed down to the point where element production beyond beryllium wouldn't occur at all.
Because Beryllium-8 is highly unstable, the Triple Alpha Process only works at temperatures of a temperature 100 Million K or more, if it doesn't fuse with helium right away to form stable carbon-12, it falls apart again. It seems again like the author has heard something he thought sounded intelligent, but doesnt understand the actual meaning behind. Good work!


Well folks, you get the idea. The author has a bit of a issue with Intellectual Intergrity. His insane "Wow! Just look, this is like... wow..." argumentation and utterly inaccurate data might be able to fool children, but so far Yahweh remains ever unimpressed.

Oh, and where was that scientific proof of god's existence I was promised?
 
Yahweh, this site quotes Victor Zammit ad nauseum, and many of the arguments are his, word for word. That would suggest that it is not worth much of your time and effort arguing each point, as (a) they are simply Victor's already thoroughly debunked twaddle, and (b) the owner of this website would as soon heed your arguments as start spouting Shakespeare in Latin.

I, for one, appreciate your well worked out arguments and research. They will not. In other words, don't waste your time, energy and intellect on them...it's wasted.
 
Zep said:
Yahweh, this site quotes Victor Zammit ad nauseum, and many of the arguments are his, word for word. That would suggest that it is not worth much of your time and effort arguing each point, as (a) they are simply Victor's already thoroughly debunked twaddle, and (b) the owner of this website would as soon heed your arguments as start spouting Shakespeare in Latin.

I, for one, appreciate your well worked out arguments and research. They will not. In other words, don't waste your time, energy and intellect on them...it's wasted.
Well dang, thats a downer if I ever heard one...

Ah well, good fun while it lasted :)

I still say the cause for all this Creationist confusion revolves around a failure to do any meaningful outside reading or respect intellectual integrity. Anything, anything it takes so as not to threaten those silly silly religious beliefs.
 
Yahweh said:

Well dang, thats a downer if I ever heard one...

Ah well, good fun while it lasted :)

I still say the cause for all this Creationist confusion revolves around a failure to do any meaningful outside reading or respect intellectual integrity. Anything, anything it takes so as not to threaten those silly silly religious beliefs.
Utterly, UTTERLY true. But you are preaching to the choir here, sorry.
 
I'm expecting to see Victor peddling his wares Anthony Robbins style on the Home Shopping Network any day now.

If his website is gives any indication of how logical and articulate he was in the courtroom, then I pity anyone who ever paid good money to have him represent them.
 
Zep said:
Yahweh, this site quotes Victor Zammit ad nauseum, and many of the arguments are his, word for word. That would suggest that it is not worth much of your time and effort arguing each point, as (a) they are simply Victor's already thoroughly debunked twaddle, and (b) the owner of this website would as soon heed your arguments as start spouting Shakespeare in Latin.

I, for one, appreciate your well worked out arguments and research. They will not. In other words, don't waste your time, energy and intellect on them...it's wasted.
Yahweh, I also appreciate your knowledgeable posts. Your time isn't wasted.
 
Kevin_Lowe said:
Check out this web page for a festival of fallacies:

http://atl-perimeter.hiexpress.com/pages/scientific_proof_for_the_existence_of_god.html

I have sent the following email to them. Let's see what response I get:


Dear site maintainers,

I am a PhD candidate at the University of Queensland's Philosophy department, and I have some questions about the "Zepro Formula".

1. How do you figure out the odds of the universe's physical laws being any particular way? We only have one universe to look at. Did the person who wrote this have the power to see into other universes?

2. Why do you think that one in a billion, billion, billion, billion equals zero? It doesn't. It equals one in a billion, billion, billion, billion. It's a very small amount, not zero.

3. How can you talk meaningfully of the odds of life arising, when the only cases in which we are around to calculate the odds are the cases in which life arises? If life had never arisen we would not be around to see it.

It's like you went into a cupboard with ten coins and kept tossing them until you got ten heads. Then you let us into the closet and said "Look, ten heads! What are the odds?". You can't talk about the odds, because we don't get to see the coins until we've been let into the closet (life arises).

4. Since there are so many terrible things in the world that are not the fault of human beings (asteroid impacts, leprosy, congenital deformities), but rather the fault of the universe, why should we even care if the Zepro-Forumula God exists? They don't seem to be a very nice God.

Thanks in advance,

Kevin Lowe.

Kevin, your response is not particularly well thought out.

1. Counterfactual argument (what would have happened were X to have been different) is impossible to avoid in physics. For example, think about the belief in space/time translational symmetry that underlies our whole ethos that it is "replicability" which is fundamental to science (no experiment is repeatable at exactly the same spacetime point).

In fact serious work has been done on models wherein multiple universes are created at the big bang (because inflationary theory predicts we sit within one bubble of a much larger bunch of stuff) and the physical laws are different within the different universes. The goal is to see whether we live in a "typical" universe, as one might expect. [url]http://www.fiu.edu/~mizrachs/living-universe.html[/url] is a not particularly good summary, but pretty much the first thing that popped up searching for "baby universes smolin"

2. By making this point you are yielding the ground of likelihood to your opponents. It can be read as you saying "Yeah, I accept the odds are astronomically small, but theyre not exactly zero". In fact, you do not (I presume) want to accept the odds are astronomically small for whatever it was they were asserting had this particular probability...

3. Have you ever gambled in a casino and won a jackpot? Imagine you have. Then you would certainly be able to say "I am lucky!". What do you mean by this? You mean that the odds of you having won were small, and yet you did. But note that the only circumstances under which you could "be around" to say "I am lucky!" are those under which you have won a jackpot. This does not negate the inherent truth within your "I am lucky!" assertion. Now, if you were never lucky, you might very well never ever calculate the odds of hitting the jackpot - much like if you were never alive you'd not be around to calculate the odds of being alive - but this does not necessarily render the concept useless. (I realise its not the greatest example - something wherein you wouldn't normally consider the possibility of it happening at all would be better, but I dont have the energy to try and find something more rigorous, hopefully you can see my point.)


The best argument against the sort of "odds of life" arguments that creationists use is not the anthropic principle, but rather to point out that they have absolutely no freaking clue as to how to understand and compute probabilities. There have been some great posts in JREF and elsewhere pointing out the myriad of problems with such computations.

Finally, it would behoove anyone who wants to debate probability to read around the two competing interpretations of probability, subjective and objective. Its also a great thing for philosophers to know about in general - I was at a philosophy conference on this very topic 2 weeks ago. The two different paradigms are often called "frequentist" and "Bayesian", although there are really two major Bayesian schools: "subjective Bayesian" and "objective Bayesian", ( a frequentist cannot stomach objective Bayesianism!) Fisher was the main objectivist, Jeffreys and Jaynes the main Bayesianists in the last century.

An intese debate over the last 60 years has refined the differences, and there is no clear winner - although the Bayesianists are the most prevalent these days, mainly because they can quite consistently apply their theory to situations that the objectivists cannot.

The point is, as I have learned to my own detriment, if you make an argument the validity of which is premised upon your interpretation of probabilities, there are people out there who can tear you apart. Since you're adopting a frequentist approach from what I can tell, you should consider that if your argument does not hold water under a Bayesianist paradigm, and with a little work most arguments do, then it is likely false. (I realise that debating people like Zammit you are not running the risk of encountering an intelligent counterargument!)

Next time I'm at UQ (my alma mater) as I often am we should meet up for a beer...
 
Re: Re: More Zammit Silliness

Tez said:
Kevin, your response is not particularly well thought out.

Actually, I thought I picked out four points that were ideal for attacking, and explained the problems with them clearly enough that a layperson had no excuse to misunderstand. Horses for courses and all that: we clearly aren't dealing with intellectual geniuses.

1. Counterfactual argument (what would have happened were X to have been different) is impossible to avoid in physics.

Yes, but it's all mathematical noodling that can best be described as interesting. The bottom line is that no one knows for sure whether the universe could have been otherwise (in any sense) at all, let alone what the odds are of different kinds of universes arising.

Until we can either create conditions like those of the Big Bang experimentally, or peer into other universes, it's just not an answerable question.

2. By making this point you are yielding the ground of likelihood to your opponents. It can be read as you saying "Yeah, I accept the odds are astronomically small, but theyre not exactly zero".

That's not a problem. When attacking an argument, it's okay to hit it anywhere from the foundations to the top. In terms of persuading people it's often best to hit their argument in less fundamental places.

A good example would be JJ Thomson's famous abortion article. Thomson, sensibly, doesn't think that fetuses are morally important the way adult humans are. But you'll never convince a fundy of that, so she assumed that fetuses were morally equivalent to adults and explained from there why abortion was still okay.

In this case, the move from "small probability" to "zero probability" is so wildly illegitimate that anyone can see it, and attacking that step in their argument does not threaten any woowoo axioms. Thus it's likely to get action where an attack on more fundamental assumptions would be ignored.

3. Have you ever gambled in a casino and won a jackpot? Imagine you have. Then you would certainly be able to say "I am lucky!". What do you mean by this? You mean that the odds of you having won were small, and yet you did. But note that the only circumstances under which you could "be around" to say "I am lucky!" are those under which you have won a jackpot. This does not negate the inherent truth within your "I am lucky!" assertion.

Sure. But the issue here is not that the statement "We are unlikely to have evolved without help from God" could be true, it's that with our current state of knowledge we cannot know it to be true, and the fact that we do exist gives us no information whatsoever about what the odds were. Because there are no universes in which we did not arise that we can know of.

Next time I'm at UQ (my alma mater) as I often am we should meet up for a beer...

Too late... I'm a Remote Status student now, living in an appropriately remote part of Tassie. :-)
 
Ditto, Yahweh nice post anyway.

Zammit definitely loony, kinda on the edge. Be fun to send him postcards with Randi's photo from all over the world; I really think he'd blow some kind of gasket. (That's real advanced techno-psychological terminology). Careful out there.
 
I've exchanged personal emails with Victor from time to time, and my view from his responses (they were mostly cordial) is that he has only a tenuous grip on reality at the best of times.

For example, he believes he himself is a "clairaudient" (hears voices from "the other side") because he heard his mother's and father's voices in some sort of a trance (or possibly a dream, I'm not sure). And he is thoroughly convinced that John Edwards' show is the best thing on TV and we should all watch it, although I note he hasn't got around to saying that it has been cancelled. He also claims that he is heard nation-wide on Australian radio - not so: he's on as an occasional guest on a late-Sunday-night astrology show on some low-power AM station here in Sydney (audience: himself and the station dog...and even the dog sleeps through it).

But even while we were chatting cordially, I still rated being ranted at on his website for some imagined slight completely unrelated to our emails (quick check: yep, it's still there over a year later - I might yet sue him... :)). He just did not make the connection of my name on the emails to my name on his website rant, even when I prompted him. Still hasn't noticed (or if he has, he isn't going to retract it).

No, Victor Zammit is not a man to be trifled with. He will get his just desserts. Like a chocolate mousse, he has trouble staying upright under pressure. He's all sponge, really.
 
Yahweh, Zep is right, you are wasting your time on the Zammit stuff, but your time spent on your research is certainly not wasted. I for one found it extremely informative, as a skeptic you need to be aware of many things but it is imposible to research everything you would like to know something about. Your write up added to my knowledge greatly and I want to thanks you for that. Great job!:)
 

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