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Missouri gun murders 'rose after law repeal'

jimbob

Uncritical "thinker"
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jimbob
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I can't find a primary source but...



Researchers claim a new study provides some of the most compelling evidence yet for tighter gun controls in the US.

The study links the abandonment of the background check to an additional 60 or so murders occurring per year in Missouri between 2008 and 2012.

"Coincident exactly with the policy change, there was an immediate upward trajectory to the homicide rates in Missouri," said Prof Daniel Webster, director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Policy and Research.

"That upward trajectory did not happen with homicides that did not involve guns; it did not occur to any neighbouring state; the national trend was doing the opposite – it was trending downward; and it was not specific to one or two localities – it was, for the most part, state-wide," he told BBC News.
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The researchers controlled for various other potential confounding factors, so this looks about the strongest evidence that I have seen so far that gun laws can work inside the US.
 
There may not be a primary source yet - I think the article I read on BBC America said the study is 'soon to be released'.
 
jimbob said:
I can't find a primary source but...

The researchers controlled for various other potential confounding factors, so this looks about the strongest evidence that I have seen so far that gun laws can work inside the US.
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That can't be right. Reasonable gun control measures don't prevent gun violence, or something.

I'm sure WildCat will be along shortly to rant an excuse explanation.
 
Upchurch said:
That can't be right. Reasonable gun control measures don't prevent gun violence, or something.

I'm sure WildCat will be along shortly to rant an excuse explanation.
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Or maybe just mention the correlation-causation problem?
 
AlBell said:
Or maybe just mention the correlation-causation problem?
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correlation.png


Correlation doesn't imply causation, but it does waggle its eyebrows suggestively and gesture furtively while mouthing 'look over there'
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In this case the suggestive eyebrow waggling was in this part:

"That upward trajectory did not happen with homicides that did not involve guns; it did not occur to any neighbouring state; the national trend was doing the opposite – it was trending downward; and it was not specific to one or two localities – it was, for the most part, state-wide," he told BBC News.
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There is a plausible mechanism, a change in trend that happened at the right time, and it was limited to the area affected by the law change.



The team said it took account of changes that occurred in policing levels and incarceration rates, trends in burglaries, and statistically controlled for other possible confounding factors such as shifts in unemployment and poverty.

What was stark, added Prof Webster, was the rise in the number of handguns that subsequently found their way into the hands of criminals.

The team counted a doubling of handguns shortly after sale being recovered from scenes of crimes or from criminals.
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Cain said:
Slow down. Maybe, just maybe, the world's a better place without those sixty people.
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That's true. A lot of people the world over spend a lot of time and effort trying to kill Americans. Think of all the money saved!
 
Upchurch said:
That can't be right. Reasonable gun control measures don't prevent gun violence, or something.

I'm sure WildCat will be along shortly to rant an excuse explanation.
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Since background checks are federal law I'm having a hard time understanding how anything Missouri does changes that? Perhaps you can enlighten me?

But bonus points for jumping in and defending a study you haven't even read in such knee-jerk fashion simply because it shares your beliefs, you are a True Believer.
 
It would appear that in 2007 it was no longer required to have a permit to buy a handgun

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1885579/posts

"Residents of Missouri soon will no longer need a sheriff’s permit to buy a concealable gun, although a permit still will be required to carry one.

Missouri lawmakers changed the gun law earlier this year with little of the controversy that often goes with gun legislation. The change will be effective Tuesday.

“It’s something we’ve advocated for some time,” said Kevin Jamison, a Gladstone lawyer who is president of the Missouri Sport Shooting Association, the National Rifle Association affiliate in the state. “This makes it easier for people to buy firearms. They don’t have to get permission first.”

But, you still have a background check if you buy from a dealer. So in effect all that happened is you did not need the permission to buy, you still needed the background check.
 
WildCat said:
Since background checks are federal law I'm having a hard time understanding how anything Missouri does changes that? Perhaps you can enlighten me?

But bonus points for jumping in and defending a study you haven't even read in such knee-jerk fashion simply because it shares your beliefs, you are a True Believer.
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Oh please, do tell me what it is I, your humble True Believer, believes, since you know so well. While you're at it, maybe you could point out where I defended the study?

There are definitely those who knee-jerk when it comes to gun threads.

It isn't me.

Although, I am guilty of the occasional snarky troll post. We are, none of us, perfect.
 
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I'm curious how they subtracted the Obama Effect. Missouri seems to track well with the rest of the country over the last decade regarding instant checks - which are still required by federal law. Surely this paper doesn't just attribute the mid-decade and nationwide spike to Missouri alone.
 
Cylinder said:
I'm curious how they subtracted the Obama Effect. Missouri seems to track well with the rest of the country over the last decade regarding instant checks - which are still required by federal law. Surely this paper doesn't just attribute the mid-decade and nationwide spike to Missouri alone.
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The what, now?

A quick google gave me only this and maybe a few links that had to do with healthcare reform.

eta: oh, and one reference to campaign fund raising.
 
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Cain said:
Slow down. Maybe, just maybe, the world's a better place without those sixty people.
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If those 60 people had also been armed, they could have saved millions.

Wait, am I doing the "if they had been armed..." gambit properly?
 
I don't understand this, either. What would the "sheriff's permit" process have found that the federal background check would not have? How did repealing this law result in more people being able to purchase guns?

I'm confused.
 
Jekyll's Guest said:
Wait, am I doing the "if they had been armed..." gambit properly?
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Yes. Also, no.

But then again, maybe they were armed and still died. I guess it's OK, though, because by being armed, their chance of survival was increased. Just... not enough. If that's the case, then clearly it was the victims' fault for not sufficiently ensuring their own continued existence.
 
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Upchurch said:
Oh please, do tell me what it is I, your humble True Believer, believes, since you know so well. While you're at it, maybe you could point out where I defended the study?

There are definitely those who knee-jerk when it comes to gun threads.

It isn't me.

Although, I am guilty of the occasional snarky troll post. We are, none of us, perfect.
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Of course it's you. You jumped right in and uncritically accepted whatever was put forth that supports something you approve of. Thus your sarcastic comment.

The fact remains that all buyers of handguns in Missouri affected by this rule still have to submit to the federal background check when purchasing.

The only people possibly affected by this are those who the Missouri police found ineligible yet somehow passed the federal background check, which I'm guessing will be a tiny, insignificant number.
 
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