Just wait til chance comes around

[Alkatran]

One of these days someone is going to get a statistically significant score by random chance. Can you imagine the horror this would unleash on the world?

Headlines: "World renowned skeptic proves dowsing!" (ignoring all the other claims)
Paranormal boards: "Un-Amazing Randi's karma catches up with him!"
etc etc...

I shake with fear...the more tests of the paranormal there are, the more 1/1000000 chances dowsers have to prove themselves... and it only takes one.

 

[Skeptical Greg]

One of these days someone is going to get a statistically significant score by random chance. Can you imagine the horror this would unleash on the world?

Why horror?

If it was the result of a genuine effect, it could revolutionize the world as we know it and create untold wealth for those who could exploit it.


If it wasn't consistantly repeatable, it would be soon forgotten, and nothing would change.

P.S.
If someone passed a prelimanary JREF challenge based on random chance, it would be just as unlikely that they could duplicate the results in a final event.

 

[drkitten]

Re: Re: Just wait til chance comes around

P.S.
If someone passed a prelimanary JREF challenge based on random chance, it would be just as unlikely that they could duplicate the results in a final event.

Substantially more unlikely, actually, as the final tests are held to a much more stringent standard.

Frankly, I don't regard this as cause for worry. The JREF has a problem with too few people taking the challenge, not too many. In order for someone to pass the test by chance, we would expect to see a substantial fraction of the world's population apply and work through the details of coming up with a good experimental protocol. The educational benefits of that alone would be worth well more than $1,000,000.

Heck, if it ever got to the point where the JREF were high-enough profile and influential enough that random chance alone were a realistic threat to the JREF, they'd be in a position to go to the Ford Foundation or NSF or something and get another million given to them "to continue their educational mission." In some regards, that would be the best million dollars NSF ever spent on education.

 

[Skeptical Greg]

Re: Re: Re: Just wait til chance comes around

Substantially more unlikely, actually, as the final tests are held to a much more stringent standard.

Based on a stricter protocall, I would have to agree..



I was trying to avoid the fallacy of suggesting that just because an unlikely event has occured, it doesn't ( by default ) make it more unlikely that it will occur again.

 

[Carn]

One of these days someone is going to get a statistically significant score by random chance. Can you imagine the horror this would unleash on the world?

Headlines: "World renowned skeptic proves dowsing!" (ignoring all the other claims)
Paranormal boards: "Un-Amazing Randi's karma catches up with him!"
etc etc...

I shake with fear...the more tests of the paranormal there are, the more 1/1000000 chances dowsers have to prove themselves... and it only takes one.

For the prelimanary JREF sets score so, that passing by chance has a probability of 1 in 1000. For formal test they have 1 in 1000000. So to pass both the chance for a single person is 1 in a billion. Of course that only is relevant for claims, that have a chance to work, 100 billion people claiming to fly, would still all fail, if they cannot do it.

The number of people needed, so that the chance that 1 or more pass is 50% is 693147180. If so many really(otherwise you do not apply) deluded people live on this planet, who mistake chance for ability, then there would be as many more, who would believe some non chancy nonsense and then public opinion would already have fully adapted all believes out there, so no effect of JREF challenge being passed.


Being very optimistic and JREF tests 10000 people per year, the chance for someone passing randomly the next 100 years(meaning 1000000 million tests) is 0.1%. Obviously JREF has other problems to worry more about, e.g. not disturbing "religious" freedom of others, not running short of money,....

But chances are that we see prelimenary passed by chances one day(50% chance for passing with 693 "chance" applicants).

(formulas are (1-chance to pass)**(number of applicants)= (chance for one or more to pass) and (number of applicants)= ln(chance for one or more to pass)/ln(1-chance to pass), all chances as 0.xyz and not xy,z%).

Carn

 

[drkitten]

Re: Re: Just wait til chance comes around

Being very optimistic and JREF tests 10000 people per year.....

Carn's numbers and analysis are, of course, correct. I would simply like to hammer this point home. In order to test 10,000 people per year, KRAMER would need to administer about fifty tests per day (assuming he works weekdays and takes a well-deserved two week break around Christmas). Over an eight-hour day, this would be a little more than six tests per hour, so each applicant would get a total of about ten minutes of KRAMER's time to negotiate the necessary protocols.

KRAMER, does this sound like a typical day at the office? I thought not....

 

[KRAMER]

Bring 'Em On !!!

KRAMER, does this sound like a typical day at the office? I thought not....

"I'm Chairman o' the Board. I got nuthin' but time."
- from Orson Welles' CITIZEN KANE

 

[CFLarsen]

Re: Bring 'Em On !!!

"I'm Chairman o' the Board. I got nuthin' but time."
- from Orson Welles' CITIZEN KANE

If that is the case, could you do the dishes for me?

 

[Carn]

Re: Re: Just wait til chance comes around

Of course that only is relevant for claims, that have a chance to work, 100 billion people claiming to fly, would still all fail, if they cannot do it.

Carn

Just realized, that this is incorrect, nearly any claim can in principle pass JREF challenge by luck.

All it would take for this flying thing, is most surrounding air molecules to move in the right direction long enough. Without looking up numbers i guess the chance for this is just around 1 in (6)**(10**23)(6 directions for each molecule to choose and around 10**23 molecules).

Somebode wants to try his luck?


Carn