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JREF Forum's predictions for 2064

Puppycow

Penultimate Amazing
Joined
Jan 9, 2003
Messages
32,003
Location
Yokohama, Japan
Inspired by the thread on Asimov's predictions for 2014, which he made in 1964.

Make your predictions here, and maybe if this forum still exists and has members in 50 years, it will an amusing time capsule for them to see. Or perhaps it will be long-forgotten and/or deleted by then. Who knows?

Will this forum still exist? With active users?

I don't expect to be alive myself, but if I am I will be 93 on Jan. 1st.
Some of us here now will probably still be alive.

Will America still be a superpower? Will it still be the greatest superpower?

What will the population of the world be?

Will there be any permanent human colony on another body or in space?

Will the poor countries be more like the rich ones or will the world look much like it does today? Or perhaps the gaps will be even greater?

Will global warming turn out to be a huge problem for the world as some have predicted?

What amazing new technologies will we have?

Will we have proof of extraterrestrial life? How about extraterrestrial intelligent life?

Will we have artificial intelligence? An artificial intelligence that can pass a Turing test?

What sorts of things will research into DNA make possible?

Will we conquer any diseases that haven't already been conquered?

What else?
 
In 2064, computer scientists will (still) be telling us that "real" AI is about 20 years away. :)
 
In 2064, computer scientists will (still) be telling us that "real" AI is about 20 years away. :)

Commercial fusion reactors will be a few years away.

There will be two types of people; the highly educated, highly paid people and slaves. Not much in between.
 
In 2064, computer scientists will (still) be telling us that "real" AI is about 20 years away. :)
I do not believe any actual computer scientists are claiming it now. In fact, computer scientists have pretty much given up on definition of AI, and are just working on specific applications.

I expect that in 2064 there will be plethora of computer programs, some of them embodied in physical robots, which will act in manner we generally consider "intelligent" -- within their areas of function. Nobody will care if they are "real AI" or not.

Turing Test will have gone the way winning chess and doing translation went -- accomplished through combination of brute force, clever algorithms and Internet-worth of data, not through actually making computer intelligent -- whatever that means.
 
World War III will have happened...someone will have dropped a nuclear bomb on the Great Pyramid, just for the hell of it, to see what happens to 2.3 million stones, that weigh a combined 5.75 million tons..and uncover the secret documents explaining how the universe works. However since we blew ourselves to kingdom come, none of it matters anymore.
Speaking of not mattering anymore......if they dont hurry up and discover a fountain of youth pill, and i go on to die, like everyone else...since i have no kids...i really wouldnt care much what happens by that date.
Although i do have nieces and nephews. So......well, thats the way it goes. Cant worry about everything. They`ll have to fight their own battles.
Nobody cares much about you after you die anyway. Not really. They go to a funeral, say what a good guy he was, blah, blah...two weeks later he`s forgotten. My parents dont even visit their parent`s graves, nor spend time talking about them. And i think a lot of people are like that. I drive by cemetaries all the time and usually not one car is in there. So, after you die, nobody seems to care. So why should i care about what happens with people, or the world after i`m gone? Sorry to vent, but this thread sort of walked into feelings i`ve been carrying around with me.
So eat, drink and be merry, and...(however the rest of the expression goes). Speaking of which, i`m going to have shrimp tonight.
 
Will America still be a superpower?
Yes.

Will it still be the greatest superpower?
No, about equal to EU and China.

What will the population of the world be?
10 billion.

Will there be any permanent human colony on another body or in space?
No, nobody will spend the enormous amount of capital necessary.

Will the poor countries be more like the rich ones or will the world look much like it does today? Or perhaps the gaps will be even greater?
Modern convenciences of some sorts will be ubiquitous (cellphones, internet), but the wasteful lifestyle of today's west will not be sustainable. We will probably subsidize recycling for poorer countries.

Will global warming turn out to be a huge problem for the world as some have predicted?
Yes, rising sea levels will start becoming a serious problem around then.

What amazing new technologies will we have?
Various energy-saving smart technologies will become ubiquitous, such as automaticly lights and heat. New insulation materials will be used to reduce the amount of energy needed to heat houses.. Containers the equivalent of plastic bags and the like will be reusable many times.

Will we have proof of extraterrestrial life? How about extraterrestrial intelligent life?
No.

Will we have artificial intelligence? An artificial intelligence that can pass a Turing test?
Artificial models of the human brain will become extremely true, but they will not be used for the creation of human-like intelligence, and no one will seriously expend the resources needed for a turing-passing AI, unless it happens as a side-result of improved translation and parsing algorithms. However, it will become increasingly difficult to verify that an agent is human online. There will be no reliable CAPTCHA tests, and techonlogy capable of passing such tests may even be subject to restrictive regulation.

What sorts of things will research into DNA make possible?
Human research will still be largely taboo, but gene therapeutic treatments of certain diseases such as Alzheimers disease will become increasingly successful; we will be able to reliably manufacture enzymes that activate or deactivate gene sequences.

Food will be increasingly modified to provide us with more complete nutrition, making it easy to mass-produce universal gruel and the like that will largely eliminate malnutrition.

Will we conquer any diseases that haven't already been conquered?
Absolutely! Alzheimer's, Huntington's and similar diseases will be very effectively treated, though likely not cured. Treatment of prion diseases using artificial enzymes will have some effectiveness in delaying the onset or progression of the diseases. Stem cell research will lead to effective treatments of many organ failure diseases, and autoimmune diseases will be almost eliminated through the use of selective immunodepressors. Many cancers will become easily treated with targeted cytostatics.
 
Will America still be a superpower?
yes and might have "annexed" Canada :mad:

Will it still be the greatest superpower?
No - China or Russia

What will the population of the world be?
8 billion and falling

Will there be any permanent human colony on another body or in space?
The space station will be down and I suspect China will have a moon base or the international community will

Will the poor countries be more like the rich ones or will the world look much like it does today? Or perhaps the gaps will be even greater?
gaps but Africa will be in serious growth mode...

Will global warming turn out to be a huge problem for the world as some have predicted?
Yup - and sea levels will start to hit as as well as whacky weather constantly - insurance will be prohibitive in waterfront areas on the oceans.

What amazing new technologies will we have?
Near telepathy with wearable communication
Seriously immersive 3d
First world will have mostly autonomous vehicles.

Will we have proof of extraterrestrial life?
yes
How about extraterrestrial intelligent life?
no

Will we have artificial intelligence? An artificial intelligence that can pass a Turing test?
yes

What sorts of things will research into DNA make possible?
lifespans for the wealthy approaching 120 years.

Will we conquer any diseases that haven't already been conquered?
Yes polio a certainty.

What else?

I unfortunately to the great loss of the planet will be dead :rolleyes: :D
 
Well here's my own answers.

Will this forum still exist? With active users?

Yes. But if I'm wrong, nobody can call me on it! :D

Will America still be a superpower? Will it still be the greatest superpower?

Yes and Yes. America will continue to benefit from immigration and cultural dominance. Europe will still be wealthy but since it is not one country, America will still be the greatest. China will be a major economic power, but I think they will be in decline by that point for demographic reasons. Militaries will be increasingly based on robots and drones.

What will the population of the world be?
About 9 billion and leveling off before a decline.

Will there be any permanent human colony on another body or in space?
No. (Not with permanent residents; a "base" isn't quite a colony.)

Will the poor countries be more like the rich ones or will the world look much like it does today? Or perhaps the gaps will be even greater?
I think it will be much like today with a few exceptions. Some countries that are poor now will have made significant progress by then, particularly in South and Southeast Asia. Subsaharan Africa will still be quite poor and there will be much violence and anarchy there.

Will global warming turn out to be a huge problem for the world as some have predicted?
Although real, I don't think it will turn out to be a "huge" problem. Some people may have to move.

What amazing new technologies will we have?
I think most new cars will be self-driving by then. And the rate of fatalities due to traffic accidents per mile driven will be about a tenth of what it is now, maybe even less. Taxis and trucks and busses will mostly be automated. Most jobs driving a vehicle will be gone in the wealthy countries.

As far as entertainment goes, I wonder if we will still be watching screens (TV, computer, mobile device) or will we have images projected into our eyes or visual cortex somehow? I think we will still be using screens after all.

Will we have proof of extraterrestrial life? How about extraterrestrial intelligent life?
Yes and no. There will be very powerful telescopes in space that can see distant objects in resolutions thousands of times finer than the Hubble telescope. We will find lots of earth like planets with these telescopes, some with atmospheres similar to our own (proof of life because oxygen isn't chemically stable). I don't think we will find proof of other intelligent life though.

Will we have artificial intelligence? An artificial intelligence that can pass a Turing test?
I suspect that AI will be able to pass a basic Turing test by then.

What sorts of things will research into DNA make possible?
In wealthy countries "designer babies" will be a thing. Maybe 10% of babies in those countries will be "designer" babies in some sense. Rare genetic disorders will be even rarer, and only occur when people do it the old-fashioned way.

Will we conquer any diseases that haven't already been conquered?
Yes, but diseases will continue to mutate too, causing new problems, like antibiotic-resistant diseases. New diseases may emerge.

What else?
I think there will be more socialism (wealth redistribution). Jobs will be scarcer due to higher productivity and automatic solutions. There will be so many losers in the new economy that they will form a powerful new voting bloc in favor of more wealth redistribution.
 
Will this forum still exist? With active users?

Hahahaha-NO!

Will America still be a superpower? Will it still be the greatest superpower?

Hmmmm....Yes and Yes.

What will the population of the world be?

27 billion (on Jan 1, UTC: 27,367,587,231.5)

Will there be any permanent human colony on another body or in space?

Yep--moon, maybe Mars outside shot.

Will the poor countries be more like the rich ones or will the world look much like it does today? Or perhaps the gaps will be even greater?

Higher overall standard, but bigger gaps.

Will global warming turn out to be a huge problem for the world as some have predicted?

It will be a huge problem, but there will be huger ones.

What amazing new technologies will we have?

If i knew that I would have already patented it.

Will we have proof of extraterrestrial life? How about extraterrestrial intelligent life?

Nada

Will we have artificial intelligence? An artificial intelligence that can pass a Turing test?

Yes, but the AI will cheat to pass the test.

What sorts of things will research into DNA make possible?

Ive always told folks, as a skeptic and cynic, that they will discover a cure for aging, but it wont be retroacitve and will happen when i hit 90 yrs. So everyone else will be having a blast and ill be ina stinkin rocking chair drooling...

Will we conquer any diseases that haven't already been conquered?

Yes.

What else?...ill have to think on that and get back to you :boggled:
 
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Top 12 Predictions for 2014

...deleted...

Ok...one more prediction--if this forum still exists it will still have clumsy software.
 
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Top 12 Predictions for 2064

OK, As a true psychic (or psycho...can never get those terms straight...)
I could go on all night, but here are my TOP 12 predictions for 2064:

12) Presidential elections will be determined by number of likes on their ButtocksBook Page (the biggest social media site of 2064)

11) All men will decide to become homosexual, leaving me as the only eligible bachelor. So, in my 90s i will go on the long-running show The Bachelor, and hand out sushi instead of roses (cause sushi is sexier...)

10) The national (US) speed limit will be raised to 100,000 mph, and there will be a reality show with teams competing to see who can break the speed limit (if you get caught, the penalty is 5 years locked in a cell with Justin Bieber)

9) Gun control will become a moot issue as genetic engineering is able to make all of our skin tougher than kryptonite.

8) The world's tallest building will be built out of recycled iphones.

7) Tim Tebow will become the first human to survive riding a bicycle through an EF-5 tornado. He still wont get a job playing football...

6) All captive killer whales will be set free, and they will use their newfound freedom to form a gang, developing technology that enables them to use WOMD, and decimate the workforce of all acquariums.

5) Coca Cola will bring back cocaine in order to try to salvage their failing product line.

4) Naked weather forecasting will be all the rage.

3) Steroids will become acceptible and even requirted in pro sports; this will drive down the world record in the 100m dash to 2.51 seconds. But then the winner and record-holder will be revealed in a scandal to be totally clean!

2) I will become a household name, and screenshots of this post will be sold online for 300,000 Euros.

1) Miley Cyrus will become the New Dalai Lama, after a former James Randi follower discovers that reincarnation is real and Miley fits the bill...

There you have it. Im sure at least 9 or 10 of these are a shoe in...:cool:
 
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1) The MDC won't be claimed
2) My prediction will be correct
3) Hence I will win the MDC

This will establish a paradox because prediction 3 refutes prediction 1. Prediction 3 relies on prediction 1, which it cancels out. Have I won yet :boxedin:
 
I predict there will be dance parties in space!

(I would say "raves in space", but they probably won't call them "raves" anymore, by that time. They will use some other hip and trendy name for dance parties.)

Will this forum still exist? With active users?
This forum probably won't exist in its present form, with active users. It will probably be archived, and the community we have here will have migrated to something else. Something even more compelling to be in, than this place.

Some of us here now will probably still be alive.
I should still be alive. I am, after all, immortal. And only 36 years of age.

Will America still be a superpower? Will it still be the greatest superpower?
Yes, it will still be a superpower. It won't fade out that fast. But, it depends on what you mean by "greatest". It will be a contender, at least. Even if it isn't #1 in everything.

What will the population of the world be?
It might start to plateau as the health and wealth of more places stabilizes. Then it will decrease a bit, but every individual will (on average) be better off. I can't give an exact number, though.

Will there be any permanent human colony on another body or in space?
There will be the beginnings of one, yes.

And, it will have dance parties!!

Will the poor countries be more like the rich ones or will the world look much like it does today? Or perhaps the gaps will be even greater?
I suspect there will be a trend towards today's poor countries becoming richer. It is hard to tell what the timeline will look like, though.

Will global warming turn out to be a huge problem for the world as some have predicted?
It will be a problem, yes. But, one we can manage.

Like building earthquake-proof buildings in San Francisco, we will adapt.

What amazing new technologies will we have?
I don't know. But, whatever it is, it will culminate with....

Dance parties in space!!!

Will we have proof of extraterrestrial life?
I think we would define "life" a little more broadly, and end up saying "yes".

How about extraterrestrial intelligent life?
I am more doubtful about that. Though, it might depend on how you define "intelligent". The more human-like, the less likely we will find it.

Will we have artificial intelligence?
We have that now. I suppose you mean "strong" human-like AI?

It depends on how much of the mystery we crack about how our own intelligence emerges. The more we figure out, the more we can implement in artificial systems.

I don't think we will get all the way there, by 2064. But, we will probably make astonishing progress!


An artificial intelligence that can pass a Turing test?
We almost have that, now!

What sorts of things will research into DNA make possible?
DNA will be passé! We will have moved on to alternative genetic systems and such, building our own alternative forms of replicating life forms and life-like creations!

Will we conquer any diseases that haven't already been conquered?
We will know so much more about cancer that we could probably treat it and/or remove it a lot more effectively. Though, perhaps not with anything too close to a 100% success rate, by then.

We would get close to completely "conquering" it, but not quite the cigar.

We will sooner conquer AIDS, I suspect.

What else?
Did I mention....

:Dancing_cool: Dance parties in space!!!!!! :Dancing_cool:
 
Inspired by the thread on Asimov's predictions for 2014, which he made in 1964.

Make your predictions here, and maybe if this forum still exists and has members in 50 years, it will an amusing time capsule for them to see. Or perhaps it will be long-forgotten and/or deleted by then. Who knows?

Will this forum still exist? With active users?
First off let me say I am currently pessimistic about the future. I may change my mind in 10 minutes. But the world faces several problems which I do not believe it will solve, namely global warming and a shortage of cheap resources, especially oil.
This forum could still exist, though it would be smaller than it is now.



I don't expect to be alive myself, but if I am I will be 93 on Jan. 1st.
Some of us here now will probably still be alive.
I doubt if I will be alive.
Will America still be a superpower? Will it still be the greatest superpower?
There will be no superpowers. America will be a major power, but China and Japan will rival America.
What will the population of the world be?
The population will be going down. Maybe 6 billion. Many of them would be very poor and living in a lawless society.
Will there be any permanent human colony on another body or in space?
Space-travel will not exist in the future.
Will the poor countries be more like the rich ones or will the world look much like it does today? Or perhaps the gaps will be even greater?

Will global warming turn out to be a huge problem for the world as some have predicted?
It will be a huge problem. Sea levels would be a meter higher than at current levels and getting worse. Many species would have gone extinct due to global warming.

What amazing new technologies will we have?
Technology will be going backwards. The best new one will be undersea farming. Renewable will have taken off but still not a replacement for oil.
Will we have proof of extraterrestrial life? How about extraterrestrial intelligent life?
Oxygen or water will be discovered in planets orbiting other stars. Nothing much more.
Will we have artificial intelligence? An artificial intelligence that can pass a Turing test?
Computers will be better in the future, they will communicate via voice but anyone with knowledge will be able to tell if they are talking to a computer or human. One application is that when you ring a call centre you will be talking to a computer that would be able to fix most problems.
What sorts of things will research into DNA make possible?

Will we conquer any diseases that haven't already been conquered?
I predict that if you get an infection then you had better ensure your will is up to date. Antibiotics will not be very good.
What else?
Many parts of the world would have no government. Refugees will be a major issue. One solution that would be commonly used would be to kill them.
 
I don't expect to be alive myself, but if I am I will be 93 on Jan. 1st.
It would be the year I turn 88. Knowing what becomes of people with age, I will have already avoided remaining alive that long unless some way to stop or seriously slow down aging is usable at least a couple of decades ahead of time, which I don't think will happen.

Will America still be a superpower? Will it still be the greatest superpower?
Militarily, yes. Anyone else who might try to catch up and overtake us would be starting from behind technologically, so they'd need to advance significantly faster than us, while both basic economics and political choices will mean they'd need to do it with much less investment to pay for it. To address the main suggested competitors individually:
  • Japan's just small; no resource base, especially compared to its population. It also is an American ally satisfied with letting the USA be in the position it's in.
  • China is presently on a course for self-destruction on an unprecedented scale, and will, by then, still be trying to recover its own post-collapse internal living conditions from third-world back up to second-world. The shriveling of the Chinese threat to Japan will also mean Japan perceives little incentive to bother building up.
  • Europe, even if it is under a single government by then, will be one that just doesn't want to bother. And it will be an American ally content with letting the USA be in the position it's in.
  • Russia will be the one with the best chance to rival the USA. Global warming will make its resource base easier to access and its farmland more productive, resulting in economic growth that makes it easier to pay for science & engineering without cutting corners. However, the USA has a rather large head start to try to catch up with both technologically and in being the one the world is used to, I expect Russian culture to lose interest in military rivalry as its economic situation improves, if it doesn't then it will revive Europe's self-interest in building up, and Russia faces some risk of suffering a setback in the form of an attack from a desperate China.

Economically and culturally, the USA will share the top spot with Europe and Russia, and English will still be the main international language.

What will the population of the world be?
Less than today and descreasing. It will still have risen in first-world countries with the lowest birth rates, though, because of increasing emigration. The countries where it's densest and still rising fastest now will finally have a real decrease underway, but not the slow one that's popular to predict now based on gradually shifting demographic trends; it will be precipitous and driven by the decline in the land's carrying capacity, which demographers tend not to take into account.

Will there be any permanent human colony on another body or in space?
No. It wouldn't benefit anybody to bother, so nobody will.

Will the poor countries be more like the rich ones or will the world look much like it does today? Or perhaps the gaps will be even greater?
The countries that are wealthiest right now still will be. China's and India's currently lauded growth will have crashed. Most of Africa and the Middle East will be even worse off than now. The Spanish-speaking world will be better off than now.

Will global warming turn out to be a huge problem for the world as some have predicted?
It will be great for countries with wide expanses of land where the main limiting factor so far has been that it's just too cold. Even in places where that isn't such a big problem right now, most people will be happier, and most economies more productive, with less of a winter than with more of a winter. The main drawback will be sadly making Christmas ever more and more of a matter of nostalgia over part of how things used to be instead of a part of people's real-life experiences. People will wonder how in the world anybody could have thought it was supposed to be a catastrophe, or even an overall bad thing at all, and come to think of the idea that anybody ever said so as a silly historical rumor that obviously couldn't be true. Some will even call it one of the best things humanity ever did for itself, striking a blow against what has always been one of our worst enemies: cripplingly cold weather. It will gradually begin to increasingly be cited as the first great achievement in manipulating a whole planet to suit our preferences, and thus as proof that "terraforming" will be no problem at all once we can get to other planets.

Will we have proof of extraterrestrial life? How about extraterrestrial intelligent life?
No. Anything more complex than microbes would need to be from outside of this solar system, and we will still only have this solar system to work with. And it's pretty bleak around here, so I'm betting against even extreme ideas like microbes under the miles of ice on a gas giant planet's moon.

Will we have artificial intelligence?
Some people claim we already do; they use that phrase to refer to certain programs or algorithms run by computers in the present world. They will have used the phrase that way more and more until few people are left who even remember that it once meant a technological thing that could think like a person.

An artificial intelligence that can pass a Turing test?
There won't be a point in making one, so even if it can be done, it will only exist in the one place where pointless human-mimicking technology gets made just because it can be: Japan. It will be trotted out for exhibitions until it gets depressed over that kind of life and commits suicide. Eventually, no more will be made.

What sorts of things will research into DNA make possible?
Most genetic defects will have affected their last victims, at least in the technologically advanced countries. There will still be some older people around with them, but nobody being born then will have them, which will mean their children won't either, even without subsequent intervention. (You can't inherit genes your parents don't have.)

For other traits like intelligence and strength and avoidance of getting fat and healing rates and general immunity, there are too many genes involved to take much control over those outcomes yet, but at least a few individual isolated ones will be known and used.

It will be routine to "regrow" lost or severely damaged body parts, or grow them in isolation in a lab and transplant them onto the patient whose own DNA was used to produce them, so people with obvious visible damage from past injuries will be a thing of the past. Similarly, most meat, other than at extremely expensive specialty restaurants, will be grown from just animal muscles, not cut out of whole animals.

Carbon fuels will be produced by modified algae, not taken from underground anymore. (The latter part will be by law, to keep carbon input & output equal.) Something functionally like wood will be produced in vats of modified microbes of some kind.

What else?
Fusion will be producing more power than it takes in, but probably still not by a margin that makes enough profit to compete with the biggest and fastest-growing power sources, which will be solar and fission. Carbon fuels will be mostly relegated to vehicles while stationary places use electricity from electrical power plants, only a few of which will remain that still burn carbon. Chemical batteries will be a thing of the past, replaced by supercapacitors, which will be in the process of taking over some of the vehicle market as well.
 
We will have Self-Fitting / Drying clothes, we will have hoverboards and flying cars that run on fusion power, and lawyers will be outlawed...

No wait, that's the prediction for next year, 2015...
 

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