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Jared Diamond on Collapsing Civilizations

Cain

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Cain
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History warns us that when once-powerful societies collapse, they tend to do so quickly and unexpectedly. That shouldn't come as much of a surprise: peak power usually means peak population, peak needs, and hence peak vulnerability. What can be learned from history that could help us avoid joining the ranks of those who declined swiftly? We must expect the answers to be complex, because historical reality is complex: while some societies did indeed collapse spectacularly, others have managed to thrive for thousands of years without major reversal.
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http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/01/opinion/01diamond.html

Registration Required, although, see www.bugmenot.com toy bypass compulosry web registration.

See also Malcom Gladwell's _New Yorker_ review of Diamond's forthcoming _Collapse_: http://www.newyorker.com/printable/?critics/050103crbo_books
 
Re: Re: Jared Diamond on Collapsing Civilizations

What exactly is meant by "collapse" in this case?

Does he mean "collapse" like the Incas or something less complete like the end of the British Empire?
 
Re: Re: Re: Jared Diamond on Collapsing Civilizations

LucyR said:
What exactly is meant by "collapse" in this case?

Does he mean "collapse" like the Incas or something less complete like the end of the British Empire?
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You'll have to buy the book to find out! :p
 
Re: Re: Re: Jared Diamond on Collapsing Civilizations

LucyR said:
What exactly is meant by "collapse" in this case?

Does he mean "collapse" like the Incas or something less complete like the end of the British Empire?
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He mentions the British empire in the _NYT_ op-ed. British society still remains to this day, so it has not collapsed. An example of collapse is Polynesian society on Easter Island hundreds of years ago.
 
According to people like Diamond, who are kind of doomsdayers but not as pessimistic-

Don't ignore environmental warnings. Easter Island and the Mayas were killed off when they ignored environmental problems that turned into disasters. Respond quickly and decisively.

If the separation between the rich and poor grows too big a stable system effectively ends. Everyone can see this looking at the third world. The third world has two classes, the very rich and the very poor. There's no middle joining them.

and so on
 
jay gw said:

If the separation between the rich and poor grows too big a stable system effectively ends. Everyone can see this looking at the third world. The third world has two classes, the very rich and the very poor. There's no middle joining them.
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South Africa has a growing middle class and yet the gap between the very rich and very poor is enormous. I don't really know though if SA is considered third world.
 
jay gw said:
If the separation between the rich and poor grows too big a stable system effectively ends. Everyone can see this looking at the third world. The third world has two classes, the very rich and the very poor. There's no middle joining them.
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Mmmmmm, I think one could argue that states such as India, China, S. Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand, off the top of my head, could easily have been classified "Third World" countries not to many years ago, but now have large and growing middle classes (albeit often not as well-off as Euro-American middle classes, but definitely in that level of society)
 
Hutch said:
Mmmmmm, I think one could argue that states such as India, China, S. Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand, off the top of my head, could easily have been classified "Third World" countries not to many years ago, but now have large and growing middle classes (albeit often not as well-off as Euro-American middle classes, but definitely in that level of society)
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Agreed.
 
Hutch said:
Mmmmmm, I think one could argue that states such as India, China, S. Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand, off the top of my head, could easily have been classified "Third World" countries not to many years ago, but now have large and growing middle classes (albeit often not as well-off as Euro-American middle classes, but definitely in that level of society)
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In the current emergency, India has been able to declare - honestly - that it doesn't need assistance, and is actually providing assistance to Sri Lanka. Thailand has declined material assistance, but is asking for professional expertise and equipment. Indonesia, sadly, is still a basket-case where any aid is liable to evaporate if not carefully watched. On the whole, the Pacific Rim is not backward or poverty-stricken these days. The switch of emphasis from the Atlantic happened some time ago, in my opinion.
 
jay gw said:
If the separation between the rich and poor grows too big a stable system effectively ends. Everyone can see this looking at the third world. The third world has two classes, the very rich and the very poor. There's no middle joining them.
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The other two worlds have become increasingly similar over the last few decades. In fact, there's a sort of world uber-rich that aren't really attached to the nation-state system or society as we Ordinary Mortals experience it.
 
On the whole, the Pacific Rim is not backward or poverty-stricken these days. The switch of emphasis from the Atlantic happened some time ago, in my opinion.
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When I see shanties washed away and skinny children, I beg to differ. People see what they want to. If they're so rich, why do they need aid from the West? America doesn't get aid when it has disasters....?

I live next door to Mexico. According to the United Nations, Mexico is one of the richest countries in the world.

It is extremely poor. Despite having a wage 10 times higher than China's, people still try to get to the United States all the time. Legally or otherwise, doesn't matter.
 
jay gw said:
When I see shanties washed away and skinny children, I beg to differ. People see what they want to.
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I saw pictures of shanties in the US (where they're known as "trailer parks") blown away in Florida, where poor kids tend to be fat rather than thin. The US isn't poor. Indonesia is, of course.

I live next door to Mexico. According to the United Nations, Mexico is one of the richest countries in the world.

It is extremely poor. Despite having a wage 10 times higher than China's, people still try to get to the United States all the time. Legally or otherwise, doesn't matter.
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The US is signifcantly richer than Mexico. It's richer than most places, and people try to get to the US from lots of them. Including Canada, which ain't poor.


Edited to add:

China's exchange rate is kept artifically low, which might be influencing the comparison with Mexico.
 
He's speaking at a Skeptic's society meeting in Pasadena sunday.

I heard him on the radio today.

Interesting. But not fascinating.

He has history lessons, but not easy enough to apply it to modern life.
 
Silicon said:
He's speaking at a Skeptic's society meeting in Pasadena sunday.

I heard him on the radio today.

Interesting. But not fascinating.

He has history lessons, but not easy enough to apply it to modern life.
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Yes, and LA skeptics are doing the traditional lunch before lecture, dinner after. Usually we have 4-5 people, this time about 6 will come. If anyone would like to join us for food and the lecture, you can PM me or Electric Monk
 
There are 6 LA Skeptics?


Or is that just for the lunch/dinner portion?

How well attended are these events?

I'm not particularly interested in this one, as I heard enough over the radio. But I would be interested in future events, I'm sure.


Sorry to off-topic this.
 
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