Japan's population decline continues apace

[Puppycow]

Number of births in Japan falls to record low in 2020

The combined number of babies born in Japan and to Japanese nationals living abroad stood at 872,683 in 2020, down 25,917 from a year earlier and marking the lowest level on record, according to health ministry data released Monday.

The number of deaths dropped 9,373 to 1,384,544, the first decline in 11 years, the ministry said in a preliminary report that also included data for foreign nationals living in Japan.

A total of 537,583 marriages were registered, down 78,069, or 12.7 percent, the largest margin of decline since 1950.

The part I didn't expect is that deaths actually declined in 2020 for the first time in 11 years. A small decline, and the decline in births was larger, but one might have imagined that deaths would increase in a pandemic year.

So digging a little deeper, the tracker I use says that there have been 7,472 deaths due to coronavirus in Japan so far, but actually over 50% of those have been in 2021, not 2020. On January 1st, the figure stood at 3,513. Compared to the total deaths (1,384,544) that would mean that Covid accounted for only 0.25% of them in 2020. It simply wasn't a large enough number to make a significant difference one way or the other. If there was a significant effect of the pandemic in Japan in 2020, its effect was probably felt more in fewer births rather than in increased deaths.

If you subtract the number of births from the number of deaths, Japan's population declined last year by 511,861. Over half a million. I also expect that more people will die in 2021, simply because two consecutive years of falling death rates seems unlikely.

 

[psionl0]

Given that the usual mantra is "Populate or perish!" does this have any severe ramifications for the Japanese economy?

 

[Puppycow]

Given that the usual mantra is "Populate or perish!" does this have any severe ramifications for the Japanese economy?

So far it seems to be OK. The future is questionable.

Any particular aspect of the economy?

Not much inflation so far. Unemployment rate seems to be goodish compared to other first world economies.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Raw population count doesn't really capture the whole scope of the problem.

Japan's population is also disproportionately elderly.

 

[Matthew Best]

So far it seems to be OK. The future is questionable.

Any particular aspect of the economy?

Not much inflation so far. Unemployment rate seems to be goodish compared to other first world economies.

Property prices?

 

[BobTheCoward]

Without people, who will the cops interrogate for 23 days without a lawyer?

 

[Puppycow]

Raw population count doesn't really capture the whole scope of the problem.

Japan's population is also disproportionately elderly.

And gets more so every year. The question is, how bad will it get before the ratio plateaus somewhere? Will it be impossible to manage? Some percentage of the elderly can continue to live independently or semi-independently, and some may require nursing care of some sort. My Japanese mother-in-law is 93 and she continues to live in her own home, with my brother-in-law and his family. Financially she is independent (sometimes she gives us money, so clearly she has more than enough for her own needs).

Japanese people tend to save money for their old age.

Property prices?

Depends on the area. In the large metropolitan areas, prices seem to be fairly stable. It's a different story in rural areas. As the population decreases, it is also increasingly moving to the urban areas.

 

[Puppycow]

Apparently the fertility rate is even lower in South Korea:

South Korea’s fertility rate falls to lowest in the world

SEOUL--South Korea’s fertility rate fell to the lowest in the world last year, data showed on Wednesday, as uncertainty over the coronavirus discouraged couples from marrying and having children.
The number of expected babies per South Korean woman fell to 0.84 in 2020, dropping further from the country’s previous record low of 0.92 a year earlier, the official annual reading from the Statistics Korea showed.
That is the lowest among over 180 member countries of the World Bank, and far below 1.73 in the United States and 1.42 in Japan.

On the other hand the article says that South Korea's population only started to decline last year, whereas Japan's has been in decline since around 2005.

 

[TragicMonkey]

Perhaps the Koreans and Japanese should intermarry and carry on as a combined culture! is a thing you could say to cause heads to explode in both those places.