Maybe I'm stating the obvious but from a policy standpoint, I don't know if we can talk about democracy in the middle east until more liberal forms of Islam spread.
What we've been seeing over the last few decades - which is the short-term in the big picture - has been a spread of
less liberal Islam onto what was an established moderate scene. It's happened in Pakistan (an egregious creation), Iran, Palestine, Lebanon Afghanistan, Nigeria, Indonesia and beyond. The Islamic threat wasn't on any Westerner's - or Russian's - mind 30 years ago. Of course, there was still the Cold War in those days ... hey, I'm just saying.
Maybe there's a connection.
Maybe the attention paid to a new enemy has created its own monster.
Islam is not incompatible with democracy, any more than Christianity or Judaism are. Some interpretations of Abrahamic religions
are incompatible - the current Iranian system provides an example.
To my mind, what's lacking in the Middle East is trusted institutions. A Ministry of Government is not regarded as there to serve the public, it's regarded as a source of patronage and budget which enhances the influence and wealth of the Minister. These institutions have to develop over time, they can't be created by fiat. The closest thing to trusted institutions in the Middle East are religious houses and charities.
You suggest that Muslims will always vote "their rights" away, but perhaps they don't share your concept of what "their rights" are. (The same might be true of the Chinese, etc.) I'm sure they'd overlap on such matters as arbitrary confiscation or punishment, safe streets, life and liberty - but the
degree of liberty might well differ. Where lies the line between liberty and licence? Between the communal and the individual?