Iowa Straw Poll Prediction Contest

Brainster

Penultimate Amazing
Brainster
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May 26, 2006
Messages
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Okay, time to put on your prediction hats and tell us the order of finish of the top five candidates for the Republicans and Democrats in the Iowa Straw Poll on January 3, 2008.

Rules: List your candidates from 1-5 in each party. A correct placement for any candidate as determined by the order of results published in the New York Times or similar mass media outlet will result in 10 points. If you are off by 1 in the placement of any candidate, you will receive 5 points. A perfect score (placing all five candidates for each party in the proper order) is 100.

My predictions:

Republicans
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. McCain
4. Thompson
5. Giuliani

Democrats
1. Edwards
2. Clinton
3. Obama
4. Biden
5. Richardson
 
1. Giuliani
2. Romney
3. Huckabee
Ron Paul
4. Thompson
5. McCain


1. Clinton
2. Obama
3. Edwards
4. Richardson
5. Biden
 
GOP
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. Giuliani
4. McCain
5. Thompson


Dems
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
4. Biden
5. Richardson
 
Brainster said:
My predictions:

Republicans
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. McCain
4. Thompson
5. Giuliani

Democrats
1. Edwards
2. Clinton
3. Obama
4. Biden
5. Richardson
Click to expand...

Rightards
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Giuliani
4. McCain
5. Thompson

Democans
1. Edwards
2. Clinton
3. Obama
4. Dodd
5. Richardson
 
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
4. Biden
5. Richardson

1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain
4. Paul
5. Thompson
 
People's Democratic Party of America

1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
4. Biden
5. Richardson

(i've never heard of Biden or Richardson, but i needed to fill up my democrat list, so i've just copied brainster ;))

People's Republican Party of America

1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Gulliani
4. Thompson
5. Ron Paul

....bit of a stab in the dark from a Brit here - so if any of you US citizens get beaten you should hang your heards shame :)
 
andyandy said:
People's Democratic Party of America

1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
4. Biden
5. Richardson

(i've never heard of Biden or Richardson, but i needed to fill up my democrat list, so i've just copied brainster ;))

People's Republican Party of America

1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Gulliani
4. Thompson
5. Ron Paul

....bit of a stab in the dark from a Brit here - so if any of you US citizens get beaten you should hang your heards shame :)
Click to expand...

1) Huckabee
2) McCain
3) Romney
4) Giuliani
5) Thompson
=============

1) Edwards
2) Clinton
3) Obama
4) Richardson
5) Biden


(I predict McCain gets a bump up because of the Pakistan thinggy.)
 
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GOP

Huckabee
Romney
McCain
Thompson
Paul
Giuliani

Dem
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Dodd
Biden
Richardson

A strong showing by Obama and Edwards could knock off one or two of the second tier and re-align the leads in later contests. I would expect Edwards to pick up most of the following of Dodd, Biden and Richardson should they peter out.

Dodd's public statements since the Bhutto assasination will make a big difference one way or the other, but I am not sure how. They may actually gain him some of Clinton's voters.
 
R:
Huckabee
Romney
Guiliani
Paul
Thompson

D:
Edwards
Clinton
Obama
Richardson
Biden
 
My predictions:

Republicans
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. McCain
4. Thompson
5. Paul

Democrats
1. Clinton
2. Obama
3. Edwards
4. Richardson
5. Biden
 
Last edited:
My predictions:

Republicans
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain
4. Thompson
5. Paul


Democrats
1. Edwards
2. Obama
3. Clinton
4. Richardson
5. Biden
 
oops i forgot about McCain in my prediction...he's bound to get more than Ron Paul and some tv actor isn't he?

am i allowed to change my prediction?

People's Democratic Party of U.S.A U.S.A!

1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
4. Biden
5. Richardson


People's Republican Party of God Save America!

1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Gulliani
4. McCain
5. Ron Paul
 
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Brainster said:
Okay, time to put on your prediction hats and tell us the order of finish of the top five candidates for the Republicans and Democrats in the Iowa Straw Poll on January 3, 2008.
Click to expand...

Straw Poll?!?! :mad: ;)

It's the Iowa Caucus! :hit:

GOP
1. Romney
2. Huckster
3. McCain
4. Thompson
5. Paul

Dems
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
4. Richardson
5. Biden
 
It's odd, almost nobody is picking Clinton to win for the Dems, I was under the impression she was still leading the polls by a large margin.

With that (possible misconception) in mind I'd say Clinton/Romney, but what do I know.
 
NeoRicen said:
It's odd, almost nobody is picking Clinton to win for the Dems, I was under the impression she was still leading the polls by a large margin.

With that (possible misconception) in mind I'd say Clinton/Romney, but what do I know.
Click to expand...

Clinton would be a reasonable guess too, but her "large margin" is not large in Iowa. She seems to have a slight lead in Iowa, but withing the margin of error, and you have to consider second choices of those supporting "non-viable" candidates (those with less than 15% support). It could seemingly be any of the leading three winning Iowa. I think Romney will in fact prevail despite some people flirting with Huckabee. I think in the end they'll decide Romney is the more viable candidate (although second choices don't matter on the GOP side)

RCP polls page
 
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