Intelligent life elsewhere?

[Kosh3]

Do you believe?

Frank Drake did (and Special Agent Fox Mulder):

The Equation
N = R* fp ne f l fi fc L
Where:

R* is rate of formation of suitable stars (stars like the Sun) in the Milky Way galaxy
fp is the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne is the number of planets capable of sustaining life around each of those stars having planets
fl is the fraction of planets capable of sustaining life that actually evolve life
fi is the fraction of those planets where live has evolved that evolve intelligent life
fc is the fraction of planets with intelligent life that develop the capability to communicate
L is the fraction of the planet's life during which the intelligent life can communicate

It's a bit dated now, as it doesn't include things like the need for a Jupiter like planet to suck up comets and asteroids, that would otherwise pepper planets with simple life forms on them.

PS. First post here

 

[Bone_Vulture]

Considering the massive size of the universe, I think its very probable that there's life out there. Also, considering how many bizarre extinct species our own planet has hosted, this life could be very different from what we'd expect.

I've always wondered how a planet's terrain and climate could affect the early conscious alien's (compare it to our caveman) ability to learn and make new discoveries. Also, what intrigues is the seemingly exponential curve of scientific discoveries: an early 20th century man would be amazed to see the level of technology we'd reached in a century - if an alien race would evolve and make scientific progress at a similar pace as humans, they'd only need a headstart of a millenia to reach amazing level of science, from our modern viewpoint. And in the limitless horizons of space, they could've began evolving thousands - maybe millions of years before humans.

This is the point where true believers and skeptics have to make the same bitter question: then why haven't we heard of them?

 

[DoubtingStephen]

This is the point where true believers and skeptics have to make the same bitter question: then why haven't we heard of them?

Perhaps we are only in our infancy, and so our knowledge of the "outside world" is limited by our general lack of knowledge.

 

[fishbob]

I sure hope so. Not much sign of it around here.

 

[El Greco]

Talking about alien life now, is like talking about television 3000 years ago. Yes, it's very probable, it might even be a certainty. But an even bigger certainty is that we will not learn much more about it in our lifetime. Unfortunately.

 

[Complexity]

I think that it quite likely that life has evolved many times in the universe and will continue to do so.

I also think it likely that intelligent life has evolved and will again.

Whether any other intelligent life existed and broadcasted a message in our direction during the narrow timeframes required so that their signals would arrive in the past few decades and have sufficient strength is much much less likely.

After all, we haven't exactly been broadcasting effectively, have we.

Now, if we were to start modulating the output of the Sun, that might get noticed eventually.

 

[l0rca]

http://www.hawking.org.uk/text/public/life.html

I happen to agree with that guy (even when he suggest that other intelligent life might go to war with us. Or perhaps at our stage a very short war.)

 

[Nick Bogaerts]

Also, considering how many bizarre extinct species our own planet has hosted, this life could be very different from what we'd expect.

Though the opposite is also rather intriguing. A big brain is a massive metabolic investment, and you would expect that a creature evolving such an organ would fill a specific ecological niche. It is not impossible for aliens to also be scavengers/pack hunters.

 

[Kosh3]

It seems Hawking doesn't believe in any 'benevolence principle'. Basically it runs like this: any species that manages to overcome the MASSIVE technological and intellectual hurdles associated with practical space travel will be extremely intellectually advanced. And basically, if you're smart enough to conquer space, you're also smart enough to conquer yourself and your base inclinations, such as war and extermination, through adopting high moral principles etc.

In other words, you don't get to have Einstein's cracking space travel without also getting Einstein's (or, somesuch other brilliant invididuals) advancing the moral status and awareness of ones species. The two develop hand in hand. The underlying (reasonable) assumption being that intelligence accords with moral virtue.

And really, who's gonna travel millions of light years to smash up a puny civilization such as ours. Thats a bit like driving 200km to step on an ant for the hell of it. You just wouldn't do it.

 

[DoubtingStephen]

http://www.hawking.org.uk/text/public/life.html

I happen to agree with that guy (even when he suggest that other intelligent life might go to war with us. Or perhaps at our stage a very short war.)

Considering human history, and I mean to include recent human history, it is easy to imagine another life form considering us to be a threat.

When you consider how brutally we treat our own species, and how much worse we treat other species, is it not good reason for a race from elsewhere to use extreme caution in dealing with us?

 

[DoubtingStephen]

And really, who's gonna travel millions of light years to smash up a puny civilization such as ours. Thats a bit like driving 200km to step on an ant for the hell of it. You just wouldn't do it.

Can you imagine someone using a billion dollar airplane to drop bombs on people living in adobe structures who are not concealing any weapons?

Is the scenario you describe really much more ludicrous than current events here on Earth?

 

[logical muse]

Intelligent life elsewhere?

Do you mean, beyond this forum? Good question.

Welcome, btw.

 

[Ashles]

Can you imagine someone using a billion dollar airplane to drop bombs on people living in adobe structures who are not concealing any weapons?

Is the scenario you describe really much more ludicrous than current events here on Earth?

Wow I just had an image of a War of the Worlds style attack on earth with aliens on a far distant planet trying to justify how sure they were that Earth had the latest Supernova Bomb technology and represented an imminent threat to Xylon19.

 

[Bone_Vulture]

Though the opposite is also rather intriguing. A big brain is a massive metabolic investment, and you would expect that a creature evolving such an organ would fill a specific ecological niche. It is not impossible for aliens to also be scavengers/pack hunters.

That leads to another disturbing question: is constant race for survival a necessity for evolution? I recall reading that European nations gained new innovations faster during the medieval times, as the harsher climate required lots of improved technology, like farming equipment, construction materials and general craftsmanship to put it all together. It'd be ironic to see alien worlds where lack of competition between species has lead the planet's ecosystem to stay in a dormant, animal state for millions of years.

And really, who's gonna travel millions of light years to smash up a puny civilization such as ours. Thats a bit like driving 200km to step on an ant for the hell of it. You just wouldn't do it.

Well, I sure hope so. If they mimic human behavior, like how the conquistadors behaved in the new world in 16th century, this planet is screwed.

 

[Bone_Vulture]

Wow I just had an image of a War of the Worlds style attack on earth with aliens on a far distant planet trying to justify how sure they were that Earth had the latest Supernova Bomb technology and represented an imminent threat to Xylon19.

"No cardiovascular fluids for oxygen!", cry the radical West-Quadrant party Xylonites, renouncing the administration of Superbrain Burrrr-1.

 

[hammegk]

Care to speculate on what intelligent life here would be if the K-T asteroid hadn't cleared the way for mammals over the ~mammals?

60 million extra years for what were fairly brainy, with basic hands, bipeds.


Meeting a species that could be 10's of millions years ahead of us doesn't sound very favorable for us imo.

 

[Godmode]

To me it seems highly likely that there has been, is, or will be intelligent life somewhere else in the universe. It seems highly unlikely that we will ever be able to confirm this.

 

[Bone_Vulture]

To me it seems highly likely that there has been, is, or will be intelligent life somewhere else in the universe. It seems highly unlikely that we will ever be able to confirm this.

It's both ironic and depressing to think that perhaps hundreds of civilizations were already fading while were still living in trees.

 

[Kosh3]

Can you imagine someone using a billion dollar airplane to drop bombs on people living in adobe structures who are not concealing any weapons?

Is the scenario you describe really much more ludicrous than current events here on Earth?

yeah about a millionfold more ludicrous.

 

[Complexity]

And really, who's gonna travel millions of light years to smash up a puny civilization such as ours. Thats a bit like driving 200km to step on an ant for the hell of it. You just wouldn't do it.

Woos would at the drop of a hat. Just tell them that the nasty alien animals said don't believe in the Prophet, made fun of his mother, and need to be saved.