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Intelligent design's predictions

dahduh

Critical Thinker
Joined
May 23, 2006
Messages
357
I've just finished listening to Point of Inquiry's intelligent design interview with Michael Behe, one of the founding father's of that ironically named movement. As usual, the phrase "Intelligent design makes no predictions" cropped up, together with the idea that god must be the designer.

Does everyone go along with these positions??

This is what bugs me. Firstly, the hypothesis that some or all aspect of our biology were designed by some intelligent agent is not, on the face of it, unreasonable. And subject to reasonable assumptions, this hypothesis certainly does make some predictions. Well designed artifacts are designed for a specific purpose: so we should expect to be able to divine purpose from design. Designs are usually 'cleaned up', so for example while an engineering drawing might need a whole lot of construction lines to aid in drawing it, those construction lines are removed in the final blueprint. If designs do evolve, designers usually re-factor, so for example if a programmer extends a piece of software and finds the original architecture was inadequate, he will (if he is a good programmer) re-design and strip out any old code that is no longer needed. Designs often require configuration management and attribution, so you might expect to find something like version numbers or signatures or copyright notices on them. Designs often evolve in quantum leaps, in which some change or improvement is accompanied by a radical departure from a previous architecture. Designs are usually modular and attempt to create minimal interfaces between components in order to manage complexity. And so on and so on.

These are all things we might reasonably expect to find in designed artifacts, and are things I would expect to follow from the intelligent design hypothesis. While not strictly speaking 'predictions' in a rigorous sense, identification of any one of these features would be taken as support for the intelligent design hypothesis. The absence of any one of these features can of course be explained away in any variety of ways, usually by special pleading, so absence does not absolutely disprove intelligent design. But absence certainly makes the ID hypothesis less tenable.

With the exception of quantum leaps in architecture for which Behe coined the term "Irreducible complexity", the ID'ers seem to have entirely ignored these other expected features of intelligently designed artifacts. Needless to say, this is because there is a total absence of such features to be found anywhere in biology, and irreducible complexity currently amounts to little more than argument from ignorance or personal incredulity. But why is the ID hypothesis simply being dismissed as 'unscientific'? It's a reasonable hypothesis, it does make predictions of a sort, so why aren't the bastards being called out and made to explain why their designer designs with all the smarts of a drunken coot?

Then the second point: the presumption that the designer must be god. No, this doesn't follow, maybe the Raelians are right and some space-alien did it. We know of at least one (semi) intelligent natural agent in this universe, and the most reasonable assumption is that if there has been intelligent designing going on, then it was done by some other intelligent natural agent; which may, for all we know, have evolved naturally. But again, god gets introduced and makes himself at home every time ID is discussed, whereas god is a complete non-sequitur. Why are the ID'ers allowed to run away over the hill with god every time?

I realise this has turned into a rant; but don't you think that ID'ers should rather be challenged on the absense of evidence for reasonably predictions made by ID, rather than just dismissing ID with the claim that it makes no predictions?
 
Intelligent design, in the form that they present it, makes no predictions. Yeah, eraser lines are fine and dandy for architecture drawings, but GOD doesn't need such limitations, man. If you want to specify a designer and his motivations and limitations and such, then yeah, you have a theory going on, and you could even find evidence for such a thing in like, a blueprint for the human that existed before the earth was created. Irreduceable complexity doesn't even imply design, it only excludes evolution. The possibility of spontanous emergence of complexity or degredation from a more complex source still exist.
 
OK, I listened to the podcast. Behe sounded very nervous and seemed to be waiting for BJ (interviewer IIRC) to be the attack dog. BJ wasn't and tried to be respectful of Behe, but still pushed Behe's catholic belief.

Behe just presented the tired old arguments that ID seems to think that proves their cause. (ie since evolution doesn't explain and provide proof for everything it should be tossed out for this wonderful theory that needs a supernatural being). Ho hum ....

Charlie (enjoy the dialogue, know the BS artists) mOnOxide
 
As was said, ID in its current form is unconcerned with anything except complexity. There are a ridiculous number of features that are not consistent with design as we know it, but as there is nothing to stop a designer from designing us to work exactly as if we evolved through random mutation and natural selection, there is no place to go with that.

As for the identity of the designer, that gets interesting. ID is actually only taken seriously by a small number of Christian scientists who will go out of their way to tell you it doesn't preclude Rael and company from being the designer. But the overwhelming majority of ID advocates are actually creationists, who are only bothering with ID at all because they don't understand the math and think they can get it taught in science classes.

I also heard the Behe interview, and he out and out said that the people who say the world is six thousand years old are wrong. But really, even if Behe did prove that the world has design elements, that wouldn't resolve creationism vs. evolution. It's likely that a young, created universe would show elements of design, although it is not absolutely required. The overwhelming majority of Behe's friends think he's another deluded heathen, which must be a pretty depressing position for him.
 
The IDers need a new tack. This "gosh, that's pretty durn complicated to have evolved by random mutations" shtick is getting tired. I suggest they pick one designed biological mechanism and point out the part where god poked the genome to hack the mechanism into existence.

~~Paul
 
From the podcast:

"Intelligent Design is the contention that some things in Nature are better explained as the result of an intelligent agent than by laws, chance, and so on." -- Behe

If that's really all that ID is, then I agree with ID; I think we all do. The real debate comes later, when we ask ourselves, which things fit into which category?

ID most definitely makes predictions. If I show Michael Behe a stone in the approximate shape of an arrowhead, I would hope he could make a prediction as to whether it was the result of an intelligent agent shaping it, or just a chance formation. Of course he could never be 100% certain--this is, after all, a probabilistic exercise--but I would hope that he could make a prediction. If he can't, then ID theory is worthless.
 
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ID makes no testable predictions, because we can not seem to be able to test for the existence, none-the-less attributes, of the Designer.

ID makes no predictions that can advance science, because claiming something has "characteristics of design" does not really explain how that design came about. It merely tries to end the inquiry. Whereas evolution has a knack for advancing science, by actually finding explanations for things.

So, although ID can, in layman's terms, "make predictions", it does not do so in a scientific sense.
 
The IDers need a new tack. This "gosh, that's pretty durn complicated to have evolved by random mutations" shtick is getting tired. I suggest they pick one designed biological mechanism and point out the part where god poked the genome to hack the mechanism into existence.

Better to prove stuff using simulations.
 
T'ai Chi 's Sig said:
Evolution is a stochastic process. Stochastic means random. That's not any type of 'misleading', that's a scientific fact.
Actually, stochastic more accurately means "non-deterministic". There is a subtle difference: "Random", in the everyday sense, is similar to "unpredicatable". Where as something "non-deterministic" could be predicted, if we could take all the variables into consideration, but realistically, we can not. Chaos theory, and all that.

At any rate, evolution is not really "random", in the everyday sense. That is scientific fact. To say otherwise is to be misleading.
 
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UGH. It's a continuum people - not a strict random/non-random divide. You describe each system using the other - they completely overlap.
 
UGH. It's a continuum people - not a strict random/non-random divide. You describe each system using the other - they completely overlap.

Actually, there is no continuum when discussing the mathematical formalism of randomness in probability theory. If a function is defined on a probability measure, it is a random variable and its value can be said to be random. If a function is not defined on a probability measure, it is not a random variable and its value can be said to be non-random. Chaotic systems are not defined on probability measures and are therefore not random. However, they do display apparently random behavior because they are sensitively dependent on initial conditions.
 
If X is indistinguishable from Y saying X was caused by P and Y was caused by Q and P is not Q doesn't really mean a hell of a lot from where I'm sitting.
 
UGH. It's a continuum people - not a strict random/non-random divide. You describe each system using the other - they completely overlap.
Evolution is continuous, but it is not some purely random continuous process. It is a difficult-to-predict continuous process, but only because the astronomical number of variables involved. Ramdomness (in the everyday sense) and chance have nothing to do with it.

If a function is defined on a probability measure, it is a random variable and its value can be said to be random. If a function is not defined on a probability measure, it is not a random variable and its value can be said to be non-random. Chaotic systems are not defined on probability measures and are therefore not random. However, they do display apparently random behavior because they are sensitively dependent on initial conditions.
That is another way of saying it. (Although, I doubt the average Joe would understand it.)
 
It is a difficult-to-predict continuous process, but only because the astronomical number of variables involved. Ramdomness (in the everyday sense) and chance have nothing to do with it.

That is, I feel, rather presuming there is a meaningful distinction to make using "randomness" in this way.

It is, after all, a purely abstract concept.

And if one purely abstract concept is indistinguishable in expression from another purely abstract concept we say that these abstract concepts are the same.

The point I am trying to get across here that it doesn't really give any insight into a thing to say it is, "random" or it is "not random" since the sets of behaviours that this encompasses is infinite (and overlapping). It's just not meaningfully summarizable in that way.
 
That is, I feel, rather presuming there is a meaningful distinction to make using "randomness" in this way.

It is, after all, a purely abstract concept.

And if one purely abstract concept is indistinguishable in expression from another purely abstract concept we say that these abstract concepts are the same.

The point I am trying to get across here that it doesn't really give any insight into a thing to say it is, "random" or it is "not random" since the sets of behaviours that this encompasses is infinite (and overlapping). It's just not meaningfully summarizable in that way.
It's the application that matters.
I brought this up because some people think evolution is "impossible", simply because the chances of a "random" process coming up with life forms are astronomical. Just like, say, a tornado hitting a junk yard, making a perfectly flyable 747 out of the pieces of rubbish.

My point is that such "randomness" has nothing really to do with evolution. The 747 example is a fallacy. A persistent one, perhaps, but silly when one understands the actual process.
 
Yes Wowbagger, I am quite familiar with this.

The fact that people don't think through the implications of the alternative scenario (namely the fact that the building of the 747 has taken several thousand years of civilisation to achieve with numerous developments in a wide range of scientific fields to make it possible - uh, hardly the 'goddidit' alternative to 'randomness') means that simply stating "it's not random," isn't really much more meaningful either.

If it's not "random" then how is it not so is the more important point - i.e. if we're going to distinguish the process of evolution from the process of frying an egg we'd better be a little more specific than simply saying the processes are "not random."
 
My point is that such "randomness" has nothing really to do with evolution. The 747 example is a fallacy. A persistent one, perhaps, but silly when one understands the actual process.

Actually, that's where you're wrong. Each phenotype confers a probability of survival upon its possessor and that makes natural selection random by definition. However, this does not mean that evolution by natural selection impossible or even improbable, because random process tend to converge on their expected values if the selection criteria remain constant, which they more or less do for long periods of time in evolution by natural selection. In other words, T'ai Chi is not wrong when he say the evolution is random because it is a stochastic process; he is wrong when he says that evolution by natural selection cannot happen because it is random.
 
Yes... all ID is about the silly notion that scientists think this all came about randomly... because if people focus on random, maybe they won't understand the power of natural selection over time. Darwins theory was all about natural selection--not randomness... randomness is easy to understand. How natural selection works is a little more difficult to intuit, but it allows us to readily see how complex systems evolve over time based on replication of "information that is good at getting itself copied". A designer isn't needed... just information that is good at getting itself copied into the future, an environment that selects, and time.

http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/bios/tooby.html

Heads up to wowbagger, mijo is a creationist... he's really NOT saying anything just like it sounds like... just like Behe... he cannot convey a comprehensive understanding of natural selection so he aims to obfuscate and pretend you can't understand him do to your own lack of knowledge on the subject. The more he says, the less you'll understand him.
 
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