In 50 Years

[SkepticalScience]

Just wondering what your thoughts would be in 50 years if Iraq is a thriving democracy. While there is no evidence to suggest that it will, there's really nothing that says that couldn't happen.

So, IF in 50 years, the Iraqi people look back and celebrate the day Saddam fell, and there are regular elections, etc - would that mean that this was a good course of action??

Somehow this is an "End justifies the means" question - and I am just trying to understand it better.

Thanks!

 

[Hutch]

Hmmm..just off the top of my head here (and I have very little on top, as anyone who has seen me knows)

It would be good for Iraqis, as democracies tend to be better at freedom, rule of law, and the general well-being of it's citizens than dictatorships.

Will it have also been good for us--the US in particular? That, I must needs fear, remains to be seen. Probably yes, but the variables are hard to predict year by year, much less 50 years into the future.

I plan to live at least 40 more years, so'll we'll check back in 2045, OK?

 

[Number Six]

IMO...

Iraq will almost certainly be a democracy 50 years in the future (in the sense that people often vote in generally free elections). "Thriving" is another question...it's hard to say what that means.

They won't celebrate the day Saddam fell or any of that stuff. There may come a time when people there come to think it was a good thing in the long run that all this stuff happened but that is way different from celebrating it.

 

[CBL4]

If you chose any country, I would answer that I expect it to be a thriving democracy because democracy is spreading incredibly fast in the world.

Iraq has three strike against it:
1) It is not a liberal democracy now.
2) It is Arab.*
3) It has lots of oil.

Iraq has two things going for it:
1) It is having its first election.
2) It does not have a strong dictator.

I think Iraq has about average chance for any currently undemocratic country. In other words, an excellent chance.

* - This is strictly a observation of lack of democracy in the Arab world. It is an observation about culture. Arab people do not have any particular deficiency at birth but only via their environment.

CBL

 

[Marquis de Carabas]

I would probably be thinking, wistfully, "Wow, that's so great for them. I remember how good freedom and democracy felt."

 

[Bjorn]

IF in 50 years, the Iraqi people look back and celebrate the day Saddam fell, and there are regular elections, etc - would that mean that this was a good course of action??

Somehow this is an "End justifies the means" question - and I am just trying to understand it better.

Shouldn't means be justified on their own, now?

What if someone murders the president of the US tomorrow, and it turns out that we got a much better one who eventually lead the world into a time where all the world lived in peace and harmony (and every country had budget surpluses ) - would that mean that murdering Dubya was a good course of action?

 

[thaiboxerken]

I think they'll democratically elect to live in a theocracy, thus destroying their democracy. Wait, are we talking about the USA or Iraq?

 

[Tony]

Does the success of South Korea 50 years on validate the Korean War?

 

[Tmy]

Iraq is doomed to failure. There will be a civil war that will reshape the country.

You cant have a democracy whith 3 large and bitter rivals occupying the same space. Where has that ever worked? You need a big majority that will run the show.

 

[rikzilla]

Iraq is doomed to failure. There will be a civil war that will reshape the country.

You cant have a democracy whith 3 large and bitter rivals occupying the same space. Where has that ever worked? You need a big majority that will run the show.

No you don't. You need to form coalitions. There are a great deal of good examples of democratic coalition governments.

To say Iraq's democracy is "doomed to failure" you have to be able to imagine that, having tasted freedom, the Iraqi people would freely choose slavery.

Do you really think an African American man or woman faced with poverty and joblessness would look longingly back at slavery and wish for a return to the good old days of plentiful work??

Undoubtedly Iraqi democracy will be different from ours, but it will work. It's human nature. These people have been living in a fear society their entire lives...do you think they'd really choose to go back to fear when they've felt freedom? You guys have always remarked how the Iraqis never "danced in the streets at their liberation"....but they are dancing now!

The people are finally starting to believe that the fear state is gone. The double-thinkers are becoming dissidents, and that freedom is causing the emotional dancing.

Think about it Tmy...Kennedy and Kerry can bitch about the low voter turnout in Fallujah...but isn't it really most remarkable that anyone is voting at all there!!??

What you're watching on tv isn't just a bunch of people cynically doing their civic duty....you're seeing real courage. How many Americans would step over body parts to vote? Would you?

-z

 

[jj]

If you chose any country, I would answer that I expect it to be a thriving democracy because democracy is spreading incredibly fast in the world.

Iraq has three strike against it:
1) It is not a liberal democracy now.
2) It is Arab.*
3) It has lots of oil.

Iraq has two things going for it:
1) It is having its first election.
2) It does not have a strong dictator.

I think Iraq has about average chance for any currently undemocratic country. In other words, an excellent chance.

* - This is strictly a observation of lack of democracy in the Arab world. It is an observation about culture. Arab people do not have any particular deficiency at birth but only via their environment.

CBL

I'd call it 4 strikes:

The people who live there have never, ever, had any experience with democracy or tolerance.

 

[thaiboxerken]

To say Iraq's democracy is "doomed to failure" you have to be able to imagine that, having tasted freedom, the Iraqi people would freely choose slavery.

Muslims have voted for Sharia law in the past, what makes you think they wouldn't vote for it again?

 

[Tmy]

No you don't. You need to form coalitions. There are a great deal of good examples of democratic coalition governments.

To say Iraq's democracy is "doomed to failure" you have to be able to imagine that, having tasted freedom, the Iraqi people would freely choose slavery.

Do you really think an African American man or woman faced with poverty and joblessness would look longingly back at slavery and wish for a return to the good old days of plentiful work??

Undoubtedly Iraqi democracy will be different from ours, but it will work. It's human nature. These people have been living in a fear society their entire lives...do you think they'd really choose to go back to fear when they've felt freedom? You guys have always remarked how the Iraqis never "danced in the streets at their liberation"....but they are dancing now!

The people are finally starting to believe that the fear state is gone. The double-thinkers are becoming dissidents, and that freedom is causing the emotional dancing.

Think about it Tmy...Kennedy and Kerry can bitch about the low voter turnout in Fallujah...but isn't it really most remarkable that anyone is voting at all there!!??

What you're watching on tv isn't just a bunch of people cynically doing their civic duty....you're seeing real courage. How many Americans would step over body parts to vote? Would you?

-z

Im sick of the american voter bashing cause we check in at 40%. If anything Iraqs 60% is kinda lame considering its the first time ever. Shoot, maybe if we had a bunch of candidates instead of the same 2 republocrats dittoheads, more Americans would show up. I digress.


I dont think Iraqs wanta return of dictatorship. I think theyll want to be more free! I worry about the Kurds saying "hey, while we're voting, lets vote for independence!". Causeing a civil way domino effect.

even in your slave example. THe slavery may have been illegal but the slaves were far from being free. It took a good 100 years to get any real freedom for the black americans. Now lets say they made up 30% of the US. Do you think those 100yrs of jim crow wouldve been that realitivly peaceful?

 

[fishbob]

Just wondering what your thoughts would be in 50 years if Iraq is a thriving democracy.

Worst case scenario - in 50 years, Iraqi oil will be depleted, tribal tensions will increase, 12 new governments will have been implemented and deposed - mostly by force. The place will be a pestilent, poverty stricken $&^thole.

Best case scenario - in 50 years, Iraqi oil will be depleted, 12 new administrations will have been peacefully elected. The place will be a pestilent, poverty stricken democracy.