Hypothetical. What if Biden died in the next few months?

[PitPat]

Harris would certainly be next up? How do you think that would fare?

Not a hater, but she's pretty politically weak right now if that happened.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Honestly, dog do on a stick would win against T**** at the moment if a D rosade was pinned to it; barring vote rigging on a scale never seen before.

And I don't think the appetite will be there in Red states to go to bat so hard for T****.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

That's a good question. Nobody serious has really entered the race because challenging an incumbent is generally not tolerated. Entirely different story if Biden takes the dirt nap.

I'm guessing this unspoken incumbency privilege would not apply to Harris, especially since she would only be President for a very short period of time before the election.

Timing would be key though, if this happened now I'd expect a pretty wide open, contested race with lots of contenders. As time goes on it gets more chaotic, with the maximally chaotic option being Biden dying after the primary but before the general election.

Normally I'd consider these kinds of questions too spurious, but considering the geriatric nature of both the candidates it's a wild card worth considering. Isn't it fun having people one foot in the grave running our government? How exciting that so much hinges on decrepit people continuing to outperform the actuarial tables.

 

[ahhell]

Harris would be the president and the Dem field would be wide open. Newsom would jump in for sure, he's already running.

Harris would lose in the general. She's just not a good politician. She may be otherwise competent but she's just not good at running for office. Epically bad at it really.

Poll after poll seems to show that America hates the notion of Trump V Biden II, were just all stuck in a slow speed train wreck.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Poll after poll seems to show that America hates the notion of Trump V Biden II, were just all stuck in a slow speed train wreck.

I'm a firm believer that Trump won in 2016 in no small part because his opponent was Hillary Clinton, probably one of least charismatic and likable politicians currently alive.

In a bit of echo, I suspect Biden will win because Trump will be his opponent. It's been a real slog of people trying to figure out who the least terrible candidate is, and there's no sign of that changing.

It's a bit unfair to Biden as I think he's done reasonably well considering the circumstances, but our system is designed to be ineffective and it's inevitable that an incumbent President will get reputational damage because of that.

 

[PitPat]

Harris would be the president and the Dem field would be wide open. Newsom would jump in for sure, he's already running.

Harris would lose in the general. She's just not a good politician. She may be otherwise competent but she's just not good at running for office. Epically bad at it really.
Poll after poll seems to show that America hates the notion of Trump V Biden II, were just all stuck in a slow speed train wreck.

I wouldn't say epically bad. She made CA AG, US Senator and Veep. In a rather short time. But it would be an uphill climb given current favorability polling.

 

[lobosrul5]

Honestly, dog do on a stick would win against T**** at the moment if a D rosade was pinned to it; barring vote rigging on a scale never seen before.

And I don't think the appetite will be there in Red states to go to bat so hard for T****.

Unfortunately polling does not confirm your statement.

And, given our electoral college system, the D candidate probably needs to win by 3 points to actually take the election, its a very real possibility that Harris would lose against Trump.


Given that its hard for me to wrap my head around and I talk with Trump supporters on a daily basis. I think, for anyone in a more liberal country, the idea that Trump is STILL pretty popular in the USA is quite possibly impossible to reconcile.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...us/general_election_trump_vs_harris-7386.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

Compare those two links... now its possible, hell its likely, that RCP skews right. But, Biden is outperforming Harris by quite the margin.

 

[ahhell]

I wouldn't say epically bad. She made CA AG, US Senator and Veep. In a rather short time. But it would be an uphill climb given current favorability polling.

Dem running in CA, not much of a challenge, she became the senator the same way Gray Davis became governor, hung around long enough in Dem politics to fall into. She was one of the first Dems to drop out of the presidential race, the wiki page doesn't even list her as a candidate, she's filed under other. When she first ran for the AG, she beat the Republican by less than 1% of the vote.

ETA, granted epically bad for someone that has risen so high. She's basically the Sarah Palin of the Democrats.

PPS, I couldn't remember Palin's name so I looked up the list of governors of Alaska. The first US governor of the Alaska Terotory is a general Jefferson Davis, wiki says he's most well known for having the same name as Jefferson Davis president of the confederacy and for killing a superior officer.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Dem running in CA, not much of a challenge, she became the senator the same way Gray Davis became governor, hung around long enough in Dem politics to fall into. She was one of the first Dems to drop out of the presidential race, the wiki page doesn't even list her as a candidate, she's filed under other. When she first ran for the AG, she beat the Republican by less than 1% of the vote.

Yeah, she's the kind of politician you get from deep blue states that's pretty good at intra-party politics but is so weird and off-putting to the general public.

she must have some political skill to have beat out other California dems for these coveted seats, but her brief foray in the Presidential primary was an unmitigated disaster of cringe.

 

[ahhell]

I'm a firm believer that Trump won in 2016 in no small part because his opponent was Hillary Clinton, probably one of least charismatic and likable politicians currently alive.

In a bit of echo, I suspect Biden will win because Trump will be his opponent. It's been a real slog of people trying to figure out who the least terrible candidate is, and there's no sign of that changing.

It's a bit unfair to Biden as I think he's done reasonably well considering the circumstances, but our system is designed to be ineffective and it's inevitable that an incumbent President will get reputational damage because of that.

Trump won because it was a populist moment in each party and he ran against a dozen other bog standard establishment Republicans. The Dems had Clinton V Sanders V some other guy nobody remembers and the party rallied to Clinton. Then two of the least popular candidates in presidential history ran against each other.

A bit of the opposite of how Biden got the nomination. Granted most the Dems in the primary were establishment but they mostly pretended to be otherwise. Splitting the discontent vote rather than the mainstream vote.

Now, the more Trump is attacked by the "establishment" the more his base rallies too him. Its still only about 40% of the Rep base but that's enough to win the primary, but the rest are split by the various also rans. Once he wins the primary, most of the rest of the party will rally, unfortunately.

 

[ahhell]

Yeah, she's the kind of politician you get from deep blue states that's pretty good at intra-party politics but is so weird and off-putting to the general public.

she must have some political skill to have beat out other California dems for these coveted seats, but her brief foray in the Presidential primary was an unmitigated disaster of cringe.

Deep blue red states have the same issue of course, take a look at some of the weirdos out of Texas.

Thanks to Lob for the correction.

 

[lobosrul5]

Deep blue states have the same issue of course, take a look at some of the weirdos out of Texas.

I think you meant "deep red states".

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Deep blue states have the same issue of course, take a look at some of the weirdos out of Texas.

Agreed.

If I were looking for a candidate with good general appeal, I'd pluck one of these governors from Midwest states that are passing aggressive liberal/progressive policies, often with razor thin margins in government. They have way more experience being successful politicians in more competitive states. Despite conventional wisdom, they did not get success by triangulating themselves to an incoherent "centrist" position.

Whitmer (MI), Walz (MN), or Pritzker (IL) would mop the floor with someone like Harris.

 

[PitPat]

Dem running in CA, not much of a challenge, she became the senator the same way Gray Davis became governor, hung around long enough in Dem politics to fall into. She was one of the first Dems to drop out of the presidential race, the wiki page doesn't even list her as a candidate, she's filed under other. When she first ran for the AG, she beat the Republican by less than 1% of the vote.

ETA, granted epically bad for someone that has risen so high. She's basically the Sarah Palin of the Democrats.

PPS, I couldn't remember Palin's name so I looked up the list of governors of Alaska. The first US governor of the Alaska Terotory is a general Jefferson Davis, wiki says he's most well known for having the same name as Jefferson Davis president of the confederacy and for killing a superior officer.

My state is named after a slave owner. Also my county, though the "King" part officially changed to honor MLK after a resolution a few decades back by the council; you can change history with legislation and new logos. And while I don't have much of a problem with that I find it interesting.

I'm picking up what you're laying down. Palin dragged McCain down during his election just as much as I think Harris would do Biden. Harris doesn't say stupid things that much, because she doesn't say much at all.

 

[dann]

... she would only be President for a very short period of time before the election.

Johnson.

 

[Regnad Kcin]

Johnson.

Sir, please. This is a family-friendly forum.

Hope I’m not coming across as a dick.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Johnson.

Harris is no LBJ

 

[Stacyhs]

I'm a firm believer that Trump won in 2016 in no small part because his opponent was Hillary Clinton, probably one of least charismatic and likable politicians currently alive.
In a bit of echo, I suspect Biden will win because Trump will be his opponent. It's been a real slog of people trying to figure out who the least terrible candidate is, and there's no sign of that changing.

It's a bit unfair to Biden as I think he's done reasonably well considering the circumstances, but our system is designed to be ineffective and it's inevitable that an incumbent President will get reputational damage because of that.

There are millions who disagree with you, including me. I voted for her and would do so again.

 

[Brainster]

That's a good question. Nobody serious has really entered the race because challenging an incumbent is generally not tolerated. Entirely different story if Biden takes the dirt nap.

I'm guessing this unspoken incumbency privilege would not apply to Harris, especially since she would only be President for a very short period of time before the election.

Timing would be key though, if this happened now I'd expect a pretty wide open, contested race with lots of contenders. As time goes on it gets more chaotic, with the maximally chaotic option being Biden dying after the primary but before the general election.

I agree, except that the maximum chaos would come if Biden kicked off about 1/4 way through the primaries. If the primaries were even half over, Harris would absolutely get the nomination. But at 25% things would still be very much in play and you'd see a bunch of folks throwing their hats in the ring; Newsom, Whitmer, Mayor Transportation Secretary Pete, Pritzker and probably Bernie.

Before that, same thing, except in that scenario Harris would have no chance even as the sitting president.

 

[Stacyhs]

I agree, except that the maximum chaos would come if Biden kicked off about 1/4 way through the primaries. If the primaries were even half over, Harris would absolutely get the nomination. But at 25% things would still be very much in play and you'd see a bunch of folks throwing their hats in the ring; Newsom, Whitmer, Mayor Transportation Secretary Pete, Pritzker and probably Bernie. Before that, same thing, except in that scenario Harris would have no chance even as the sitting president.

And we'd hear no whinging about him being 'too old' from the Bernie Bros, either.