Double Dip Recession looming

[daenku32]

It appears that GOP will make gains, both in Federal and State elections. So, you'll have lot of states making dramatic spending cuts and sending a million public workers to the unemployment rolls, while the Federal government will be unwilling to do anything to counter that.

I see a very large dip in consumer spending next year as there will be fewer employed consumers, leading to further private sector layoffs and therefore worsening of the foreclosure situation.

If you were planning on that pay raise next year for all your extra hard work (to make up for the laid off coworkers), you can just forget about it.

This time next year we'll be looking at 15% unemployment.

 

[Travis]

But tax cuts are the answer to everything! Haven't you been paying attention to the GOP propaganda?

 

[Just thinking]

It appears that GOP will make gains, both in Federal and State elections. So, you'll have lot of states making dramatic spending cuts and sending a million public workers to the unemployment rolls, while the Federal government will be unwilling to do anything to counter that.

I see a very large dip in consumer spending next year as there will be fewer employed consumers, leading to further private sector layoffs and therefore worsening of the foreclosure situation.

If you were planning on that pay raise next year for all your extra hard work (to make up for the laid off coworkers), you can just forget about it.

This time next year we'll be looking at 15% unemployment.

And some think the Conservatives are the mongers of fear?

(For those unfamiliar with all this, it's known as political tailspin mode ... been going on now for a while.)

 

[daenku32]

And some think the Conservatives are the mongers of fear?

(For those unfamiliar with all this, it's known as political tailspin mode ... been going on now for a while.)

If I wanted to fear monger, I'd say they will come for you first born. But I didn't. I'm just doing a prediction based on what they said they will do.

 

[Just thinking]

If I wanted to fear monger, I'd say they will come for you first born. But I didn't. I'm just doing a prediction based on what they said they will do.

You think claiming 15% unemployment isn't invoking fear?

 

[drkitten]

You think claiming 15% unemployment isn't invoking fear?

Only in the sense of "don't touch that hot stove, or you'll burn yourself" is invoking fear.

Actions have consequences. In the case of the GOP, it hardly takes telepathy to discern their planned actions if they should win big in the upcoming election -- it's in the platform, after all.

And it hardly takes divination to figure out what the effects on the unemployment rate of drastically cutting government payrolls is going to be.

 

[Just thinking]

Can anyone on the left get real? ...

The most that can happen in November is that the Republicans take the House and Senate ... but most likely only the House. Does that mean they will run the show? NO. Can they force tax cuts? NO. The white house can veto anything congress passes, and given that the Senate will likely stay Blue and not turn Red, much will not pass them either. So if anything HORRIBLE happens in the next 2 years, it won't be because the Republicans alone put it out there.

I swear, not only are you making excuses for what hasn't happened, you're already laying blame on those who haven't done it (the stuff that hsn't happened yet).

True tailspin.

 

[drkitten]

Can anyone on the left get real? ...

The most that can happen in November is that the Republicans take the House and Senate ... but most likely only the House. Does that mean they will run the show? NO. Can they force tax cuts? NO.

No, but it does mean that they can force serious spending cuts.

Which, in turn, means they can force drastic cuts to government payrolls and dramatic reductions in various government headcounts. For example, if the Republican-led House of Representatives decided to defund the department of education -- as many candidates have promised to do as part of their campaign -- that would put teachers as well as school staff directly into the unemployment lines. (And there's nothing a Democrat-controlled Senate or Democratic President could do to put money back into the budget against the House's will.)

 

[daenku32]

Can anyone on the left get real? ...

The most that can happen in November is that the Republicans take the House and Senate ... but most likely only the House. Does that mean they will run the show? NO. Can they force tax cuts? NO. The white house can veto anything congress passes, and given that the Senate will likely stay Blue and not turn Red, much will not pass them either. So if anything HORRIBLE happens in the next 2 years, it won't be because the Republicans alone put it out there.

I swear, not only are you making excuses for what hasn't happened, you're already laying blame on those who haven't done it (the stuff that hsn't happened yet).

True tailspin.

It's the fact that NOTHING IS GOING TO GET DONE that something HORRIBLE can happen in the next 2 years.

The gridlock is precisely the reason why you are going to see 15% unemployment rate. The Federal government will not be able to do anything about it.

State Governments is where the next round of massive layoffs is going to take place. This is going to severely reduce the size of economy. You won't see bailouts or anything of the like. Things will simply be left to crumble.

 

[Just thinking]

OK, when all this happens in 2011, you let me know.

 

[dudalb]

No, but it does mean that they can force serious spending cuts.

Which, in turn, means they can force drastic cuts to government payrolls and dramatic reductions in various government headcounts. For example, if the Republican-led House of Representatives decided to defund the department of education -- as many candidates have promised to do as part of their campaign -- that would put teachers as well as school staff directly into the unemployment lines. (And there's nothing a Democrat-controlled Senate or Democratic President could do to put money back into the budget against the House's will.)

There will be budget cut, but not quite as drastic as a lot of people think. The GOP will discover that people cheer the idea of cutting government spending, but then yell when the cuts gets specific.

 

[Kestrel]

Does anyone have an estimate of the number of moderate House Republicans that will be in the next Congress?

 

[dudalb]

A lot of the New GOPers will be from Swing districts, which means they will have to modearte their views if they want to be reelected.
ANyway I predict that the massive cuts, if they happen, will not come down the pike until 2012.

 

[daenku32]

A lot of the New GOPers will be from Swing districts, which means they will have to modearte their views if they want to be reelected.
ANyway I predict that the massive cuts, if they happen, will not come down the pike until 2012.

I'm in Indiana and we are the heartbeat for these elections. We elected Obama, after 50 some odd years of not choosing a Democrat. And now we are seeing the shift back.

Currently all the blue dogs appear to be going out and being replaced by Republicans who make the blue dogs look like Barney Frank (actual claims of being like Pelosi & Obama, but I think Barney Frank is more liberal, which is why I like him). With the exception of some GOPers repeatedly shooting themselves in the foot, I don't expect much difference elsewhere in the nation. Liberal voters are discouraged this season because we didn't see as much "socialism" as we would have liked. It's not what gets passed in MSM when they talked about current admin or Congress, but it's really true.

In the mean time our Governor Daniels (Presidential run in '12, no doubt) has already done budget cuts, and will do even more next year. With the federally funded state bailouts running out, our "balanced" budget will be very much in the red again next year.

Now if I'm wrong, which would be FABULOUS, you can certainly pester me about it in a year. If the JREF admins don't delete the thread..

 

[Trakar]

Does anyone have an estimate of the number of moderate House Republicans that will be in the next Congress?

I thought they all died out back in the late-eighties, early nineties, McCain circa 2000 was the last one, and he was converted shortly thereafter.

 

[drkitten]

OK, when all this happens in 2011, you let me know.

Well, it appears to already be happening.

Critics said Mr. Christie was sacrificing an avenue to economic growth in order to burnish his image as a hard-liner on government spending. Some of the harshest criticism came from Senator Frank R. Lautenberg, a New Jersey Democrat and a leading shepherd of the project. Mr. Lautenberg criticized Mr. Christie for spending time campaigning in other states while the project’s fate was so precarious.

“Today he killed the project for improving New Jersey’s economy and creating thousands of new jobs,” Mr. Lautenberg said, alluding to the 6,000 construction jobs that the project was supposed to provide.

You know, if you kill 6,000 jobs here, and 6,000 jobs there, pretty soon you'll be looking at massively elevated unemployment.....

 

[drkitten]

Well, it appears to already be happening.

Further to above. It appears that the 6,000 jobs lost were only the construction jobs.

The tunnel itself was supposed to create nearly 50,000 permanent jobs when construction was done.

Good thing it was cancelled, then. Nothing like eliminating 50,000 jobs at the stroke of a pen to bring unemployment under control.

 

[Bob Blaylock]

And it hardly takes divination to figure out what the effects on the unemployment rate of drastically cutting government payrolls is going to be.

From where do you think the money comes to pay all these government workers? I'll tell you from where it comes. It comes out of the pockets of consumers and businesses. It's money that business would otherwise have to employ workers who (unlike most government workers) actually create wealth; and it's money that consumers would otherwise have to spend on goods and services that those businesses would be employing workers to produce.

Having government consume less wealth, leaving more wealth in the hands of consumers and industry, can only be a good thing.

 

[KoihimeNakamura]

... ezcept those government workers spend money at private buisnesses which let's them pay their workers which may let them hire more people, or create more market oppertunities...

But let's ignore that

 

[The Don]

I'd be surprised if the GOP managed to effect spending cuts, there's no recent evidence for them having done it before. Tax cuts on the other hand.......

I always understood:

Democrats - Tax and Spend
Republicans - Borrow and Spend More