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Merged Covid vaccines - supply, distribution and rollout / Beginning of the end

Darat

Lackey
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This thread is about the supply, distribution and rollout of the various covid vaccines but mainly about the science and facts behind how the vaccines should be used. Since this will of course involve political decisions I'll allow discussion of politics that are directly related to the topic. General bashing of politicians etc won't be allowed.
Posted By: Darat
 
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Looks like the Pfizer one will need to be kept on dry ice, -70. Moderna, a freezer will suffice, -20.

Last numbers I read were 22M doses in January, but no mention of minthly production after that. Maybe they make 22M in the first week, 200M/month after that? (I exaggerate) Meantime, Jan is two more months of data in their studies.
 
I see two contradictory goals here:
- make vaccination as widespread as possible, especially making sure to reach fringe populations like migrants and houseless
and
- finding ways to monitor the effectiveness and health impact of the vaccine for a month or two in as many people as possible, from as many demographics as possible

I don't expect this rollout to be smooth at all.
 
I see two contradictory goals here:
- make vaccination as widespread as possible, especially making sure to reach fringe populations like migrants and houseless
and
- finding ways to monitor the effectiveness and health impact of the vaccine for a month or two in as many people as possible, from as many demographics as possible

I don't expect this rollout to be smooth at all.

You'll be interested in the COVAX Facility.

https://www.gavi.org/covax-facility

"COVAX is the vaccines pillar of the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator
The ACT Accelerator is a ground-breaking global collaboration to accelerate the development, production, and equitable access to COVID-19 tests, treatments, and vaccines.

"COVAX is co-led by Gavi, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) and WHO. Its aim is to accelerate the development and manufacture of COVID-19 vaccines, and to guarantee fair and equitable access for every country in the world.

https://www.gavi.org/news/media-roo...enes-first-meeting-covax-amc-engagement-group

"The ACT-Accelerator is not a decision-making body or a new organisation, but works to speed up collaborative efforts among existing organisations to end the pandemic. It is a framework for collaboration that has been designed to bring key players around the table with the goal of ending the pandemic as quickly as possible through the accelerated development, equitable allocation, and scaled up delivery of tests, treatments and vaccines, thereby protecting health systems and restoring societies and economies in the near term. It draws on the experience of leading global health organisations which are tackling the world’s toughest health challenges, and who, by working together, are able to unlock new and more ambitious results against COVID-19. Its members share a commitment to ensure all people have access to all the tools needed to defeat COVID-19 and to work with unprecedented levels of partnership to achieve it.

"The ACT-Accelerator has four areas of work: diagnostics, therapeutics, vaccines and the health system connector. Cross-cutting all of these is the workstream on Access & Allocation."
 
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I'm 2/3 of the way through Bottle of Lies - The Inside Story of the Generic Drug Boom, by Katherine Eban.

The book so far focuses on one company, Ranbaxy, and the gutless FDA. But it still frightens me when I think of any drug manufacturing in India.

And Oxford-AstraZeneca is manufacturing one vaccine in India.

I do hope the vaccine lots are tested and not just by the companies themselves.
 
I'm 2/3 of the way through Bottle of Lies - The Inside Story of the Generic Drug Boom, by Katherine Eban.

The book so far focuses on one company, Ranbaxy, and the gutless FDA. But it still frightens me when I think of any drug manufacturing in India.

And Oxford-AstraZeneca is manufacturing one vaccine in India.
Their manufacturing is for their own consumption, as is the manufacturing in Australia.

So I guess no real people will be put at risk...
I do hope the vaccine lots are tested and not just by the companies themselves.
Other countries also have their equivalent of the FDA that test before authorising drugs for use and distribution.
 
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I'm 2/3 of the way through Bottle of Lies - The Inside Story of the Generic Drug Boom, by Katherine Eban.

The book so far focuses on one company, Ranbaxy, and the gutless FDA. But it still frightens me when I think of any drug manufacturing in India.

And Oxford-AstraZeneca is manufacturing one vaccine in India.

I do hope the vaccine lots are tested and not just by the companies themselves.

For Europe there is OCABR https://www.edqm.eu/en/human-ocabr-guidelines

I have dealt with the Serum Institute of India directly and they are first class.
 
Australia are saying they'll be able to vaccinate the At Risk population by March 2021 using a combination of 4 different vaccines.

"Different COVID-19 vaccines in 'different circumstances' as Government outlines March rollout plan"
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-...-vaccine-gives-australia-pathway-out/12914340

Many ifs buts and maybes there, though given the results so far, the regulators would have great difficulty refusing the use of the vaccines.

I'd have thought the manufacturers should be well into bulk production already - and governments should be guaranteeing payment for the bulk production - simply to get a head start.

as to distribution - the RNA vaccines sound just fine for use in cities and especially in major institutions such as health care and so on, where the infrastructure is available for storing the vaccines. The AZ vaccine is far better for more far flung locations.


As an aside - the Imperial College vaccine is a type of RNA vaccine, but the developers are looking to produce a type of RNA vaccine that is also stable at fridge temperatures - with some expectation of success.
 
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Many ifs buts and maybes there, though given the results so far, the regulators would have great difficulty refusing the use of the vaccines.

I'd have thought the manufacturers should be well into bulk production already - and governments should be guaranteeing payment for the bulk production - simply to get a head start.

as to distribution - the RNA vaccines sound just fine for use in cities and especially in major institutions such as health care and so on, where the infrastructure is available for storing the vaccines. The AZ vaccine is far better for more far flung locations.


As an aside - the Imperial College vaccine is a type of RNA vaccine, but the developers are looking to produce a type of RNA vaccine that is also stable at fridge temperatures - with some expectation of success.
I am still curious that my first cousin got the vaccine early in Oxford. She is a specialist in virology. (Or urology).

If ifs and buts were cherries and nuts.....
 
I am still curious that my first cousin got the vaccine early in Oxford. She is a specialist in virology. (Or urology).

If ifs and buts were cherries and nuts.....
Perhaps she was part of the stage 1 or 2 trials.
 
I see two contradictory goals here:
- make vaccination as widespread as possible, especially making sure to reach fringe populations like migrants and houseless
and
- finding ways to monitor the effectiveness and health impact of the vaccine for a month or two in as many people as possible, from as many demographics as possible

I don't expect this rollout to be smooth at all.

Just the logistics alone are going to be really difficult.
 
And you know some bastard to going to try to hijack or steal some of the vaccine to sell on the black market.
 
Just the logistics alone are going to be really difficult.
Why?
Millions of doses of flu vaccine have been distributed annually for decades now.
It’s not as though this is anything new.
OK, maybe more people will be interested in just how fast COVID vaccines can be manufactured and distributed than they’ve been in flu vaccines, but scaling up an already existing distribution network shouldn’t be that difficult.
 
Why?
Millions of doses of flu vaccine have been distributed annually for decades now.
It’s not as though this is anything new.
OK, maybe more people will be interested in just how fast COVID vaccines can be manufactured and distributed than they’ve been in flu vaccines, but scaling up an already existing distribution network shouldn’t be that difficult.
It's paywalled because it's from the current issue, but New Scientist has a pretty good overview of the logistical challenge that distributing a COVID vaccine to the world presents.

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...-take-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-to-the-world/

It'll come out from behind the paywall next week, or you can check it out in paper form at your local library.
 
It seems only 2,700 vaccine volunteers had the Oxford/Astrazeneca initial half-dose - followed by a full dose - (in the UK) 'by accident' where the efficiacy rate is said to be '90%'. In Brazil, where the other candidates were given a full initial dose, it only had 62% effectiveness against Covid19. In other words, the result is purely 'accidental' and not by design, eschewing normal 'scientific method'. Other criticism is that we only have Astrazeneca press release but not the protocols of the vaccine trials design, as we do for the other two major vaccines recently released - Pfizer and Moderna, each citing circa 95% effectiveness.

Pangalos said the mistake became apparent when researchers noticed the side effects seen in some participants were milder than expected. An attempt to explain the mild side effects revealed “they had underpredicted the dose of the vaccine by half,” Pangalos said. The participants went on to take a full booster shot.

The big efficacy question coming out of AstraZeneca’s data drop is whether the 90% figure is a true reflection of the protective power of the half-dose primer regimen. Only 2,741 subjects received the half-dose primer. Pfizer and Moderna enrolled more than 30,000 people in their phase 3 trials.

AstraZeneca was criticized for the data drop, with SVB Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges saying “the suggestion by the inventors that the small sample given the lower priming dose was evidence of superior efficacy only brings discredit to the program.”

Whilst it is admirable the speed it has been brought to the regulators before going onto the market - and it has been hinted the US FDA will not pass it - has it been produced too hastily? The UK has already ordered upfront 100m doses so has a sunk cost and of course, the press has to be careful not to trigger the anti-vaxxers.

Astrazeneca has announced it will be issued at cost price to third world countries - implying a small profit from others - but could this be because they have been gazumped by Pfizer/BionTech and Moderna, of which the EU via Ursula von Leyen, the President of the EU Commission, has ordered the Moderna version - costing twelve times as much per dose. Could Astrazeneca be just offloading its vaccines, of which millions have already been produced in readiness, to the poorer countries of the world - plus the UK, where there is talk of it being mandatory - whilst the first world EU and the USA get the Pfizer and Moderna ones?

Pangalos said the mistake became apparent when researchers noticed the side effects seen in some participants were milder than expected. An attempt to explain the mild side effects revealed “they had underpredicted the dose of the vaccine by half,” Pangalos said. The participants went on to take a full booster shot.

The big efficacy question coming out of AstraZeneca’s data drop is whether the 90% figure is a true reflection of the protective power of the half-dose primer regimen. Only 2,741 subjects received the half-dose primer. Pfizer and Moderna enrolled more than 30,000 people in their phase 3 trials.

AstraZeneca was criticized for the data drop, with SVB Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges saying “the suggestion by the inventors that the small sample given the lower priming dose was evidence of superior efficacy only brings discredit to the program.”
Fierce Biotech


Whilst, of course, penicillin, too, was 'discovered by accident' by Sir Alexander Fleming, it wasn't till at least over fifteen years later or more that penicillin was released to the public as a generic antibiotic, one of the greatest medical triumphs of the 20th century.
 
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It seems only 2,700 vaccine volunteers had the Oxford/Astrazeneca initial half-dose - followed by a full dose - (in the UK) 'by accident' where the efficiacy rate is said to be '90%'. In Brazil, where the other candidates were given a full initial dose, it only had 62% effectiveness against Covid19. In other words, the result is purely 'accidental' and not by design, eschewing normal 'scientific method'. Other criticism is that we only have Astrazeneca press release but not the protocols of the vaccine trials design, as we do for the other two major vaccines recently released - Pfizer and Moderna, each citing circa 95% effectiveness.



Whilst it is admirable the speed it has been brought to the regulators before going onto the market - and it has been hinted the US FDA will not pass it - has it been produced too hastily? The UK has already ordered upfront 100m doses so has a sunk cost and of course, the press has to be careful not to trigger the anti-vaxxers.

Astrazeneca has announced it will be issued at cost price to third world countries - implying a small profit from others - but could this be because they have been gazumped by Pfizer/BionTech and Moderna, of which the EU via Ursula von Leyen, the President of the EU Commission, has ordered the Moderna version - costing twelve times as much per dose. Could Astrazeneca be just offloading its vaccines, of which millions have already been produced in readiness, to the poorer countries of the world - plus the UK, where there is talk of it being mandatory - whilst the first world EU and the USA get the Pfizer and Moderna ones?

Fierce Biotech


Whilst, of course, penicillin, too, was 'discovered by accident' by Sir Alexander Fleming, it wasn't till at least over fifteen years later or more that penicillin was released to the public as a generic antibiotic, one of the greatest medical triumphs of the 20th century.
The price point was announced some time ago - well before the results of the MRNA vaccines were produced.

I'd like to know what happened to the tests in the USA. There were supposed to be 30,000 involved, though the test was "stopped" after someone fell ill and not restarted for a long time after the test resumed elsewhere, because the american authorities held it up. If we're going for conspiracy theories one might ask if the tests were held up deliberately? :D
 
The price point was announced some time ago - well before the results of the MRNA vaccines were produced.

I'd like to know what happened to the tests in the USA. There were supposed to be 30,000 involved, though the test was "stopped" after someone fell ill and not restarted for a long time after the test resumed elsewhere, because the american authorities held it up. If we're going for conspiracy theories one might ask if the tests were held up deliberately? :D

The trials were stopped in July or September for some reason with full speed ahead, not 'a long time'. These are scientific and economical facts, not conspiracy theory.

The Astrazeneca trials are based on a UK cohort and a Brazilian one. I didn't know about the US one.

Question: if the FDA refuses to pass it, should the UK be concerned, even if its own body gives it the green light?
 
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