Computing predictions from 1979

[iain]

I picked up an interesting book called "The Mighty Micro", written in 1979 by Dr Christopher Evans (who died later that year in his late forties I think).

Dr Evans made a number of predictions about the state of computing in the year 2000. The main ones are :
1. The printed word will be virtually obselete
2. Computer education will make great inroads
3. Physical money (paper and metal) will have almost vanished.
4. Substantial and dramatic advances will have been made in artificial intelligence.

He also has some broad predictions for specific technologies that he thought migh be cropping up during the 1990s or early in the 21st century:
- fully automatic, accident-proof road vehicles
- children's toys that respond to their owner's spoken commands.
- a wristwatch including memory capable of storing all personal correspondence.
- doctors carrying pocket-size diagnostic aid with all relevant medical records
- two-way wrist communicators, with or without video, being as common as the telephone.
- the average child owning a personal teaching computer more knowledgable and - in some areas- more intelligent that a human teacher.

OK, of his main four predictions, I guess he can have half a mark for each of 1 & 4, giving a total score or 1/4; but his second group of specific technologies is actually pretty good. The car is some way off; but all the others exist now in a form not too far from Dr Evans' ideas.

I think it's interesting that where he has got something wrong (and since I've got no idea what computing is going to be doing in 5 years time, I can't criticise the guy too much for not getting accurate predictions 20 years ahead) it is more because he has over-estimated the rate of technological change. We think technology has come on hugely, but the experts of the 1970s might look at us with disappointment that things haven't lived up to expectations.

 

[mummymonkey]

From a purely technical point of view he was right on the money with most of those. It's only commercial and/or social issues that hold some of them back now.

 

[epepke]

From a purely technical point of view he was right on the money with most of those. It's only commercial and/or social issues that hold some of them back now.

To some extent, yes. Going through the list:

- fully automatic, accident-proof road vehicles

Practicable for some time now. However, it's likely that insurance companies would go ape over this. Who gets to pay when an accident does happen?

- children's toys that respond to their owner's spoken commands.

To some extent, these exist. However, natural language processing has lagged far behind where it should be.

- a wristwatch including memory capable of storing all personal correspondence.

Possible technically, but who wants to use a wristwatch-sized keyboard?

- doctors carrying pocket-size diagnostic aid with all relevant medical records

Again, possible technically, but nothing that doesn't give doctors penis-enlargements ever gets accepted in the medical field.

- two-way wrist communicators, with or without video, being as common as the telephone.

Cell phones are close enough.

- the average child owning a personal teaching computer more knowledgable and - in some areas- more intelligent that a human teacher.

The "more knowledgable" bit maps pretty nicely onto CD-ROM encyclopedias. Otherwise, it's close to impossible to make money off of educational software. Furthermore, the whole idea neglects the social importance of teaching, which is about 90% of the job.

 

[aerosolben]

I picked up an interesting book called "The Mighty Micro", written in 1979 by Dr Christopher Evans (who died later that year in his late forties I think).

Dr Evans made a number of predictions about the state of computing in the year 2000. The main ones are :
1. The printed word will be virtually obselete

Possible but not practical due to social issues.

2. Computer education will make great inroads

Certainly correct.

3. Physical money (paper and metal) will have almost vanished.

Probably possible, but a social issue again.

4. Substantial and dramatic advances will have been made in artificial intelligence.

I will make a bold statement here and say artificial intelligence hasn't made any great strides since the early 80's. Most later advances are due to applying increased computing power to the same old algorithms.

He also has some broad predictions for specific technologies that he thought migh be cropping up during the 1990s or early in the 21st century:
- fully automatic, accident-proof road vehicles

These have been around a while.

- children's toys that respond to their owner's spoken commands.
- a wristwatch including memory capable of storing all personal correspondence.
- doctors carrying pocket-size diagnostic aid with all relevant medical records
- two-way wrist communicators, with or without video, being as common as the telephone.
- the average child owning a personal teaching computer more knowledgable and - in some areas- more intelligent that a human teacher.

All quite true.

I would say that his predictions are all quite good, probably because he didn't expect too many radical advances. He correctly predicted the integration of computers into everyday life (although we have merged it with the old system rather than discarding it). Good job.

 

[Interesting Ian]

I picked up an interesting book called "The Mighty Micro", written in 1979 by Dr Christopher Evans (who died later that year in his late forties I think).

Dr Evans made a number of predictions about the state of computing in the year 2000. The main ones are :
1. The printed word will be virtually obselete
2. Computer education will make great inroads
3. Physical money (paper and metal) will have almost vanished.
4. Substantial and dramatic advances will have been made in artificial intelligence.

He also has some broad predictions for specific technologies that he thought migh be cropping up during the 1990s or early in the 21st century:
- fully automatic, accident-proof road vehicles
- children's toys that respond to their owner's spoken commands.
- a wristwatch including memory capable of storing all personal correspondence.
- doctors carrying pocket-size diagnostic aid with all relevant medical records
- two-way wrist communicators, with or without video, being as common as the telephone.
- the average child owning a personal teaching computer more knowledgable and - in some areas- more intelligent that a human teacher.

OK, of his main four predictions, I guess he can have half a mark for each of 1 & 4, giving a total score or 1/4; but his second group of specific technologies is actually pretty good. The car is some way off; but all the others exist now in a form not too far from Dr Evans' ideas.

I think it's interesting that where he has got something wrong (and since I've got no idea what computing is going to be doing in 5 years time, I can't criticise the guy too much for not getting accurate predictions 20 years ahead) it is more because he has over-estimated the rate of technological change. We think technology has come on hugely, but the experts of the 1970s might look at us with disappointment that things haven't lived up to expectations.

I've got his book. I read it back in 1979. He was way out in most predictions so far as I can recall.

To be fair though people are always way out when predicting the future.

 

[Interesting Ian]

Re: Re: Computing predictions from 1979

I would say that his predictions are all quite good, [/B]

Huh?? I read the damn book. He got just about everything hopelessly wrong!

 

[Yahweh]

Re: Re: Re: Computing predictions from 1979

Huh?? I read the damn book. He got just about everything hopelessly wrong!

Still better than Sylvia Browne I'd say

 

[Interesting Ian]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Computing predictions from 1979

Still better than Sylvia Browne I'd say

Dunno about that. But if I recall correctly he said no-one would use a front door key from 1985

 

[aerosolben]

Re: Re: Re: Computing predictions from 1979

Huh?? I read the damn book. He got just about everything hopelessly wrong!

I didn't read the damn book; I just read iain's post. I do think he was way out on some things mentioned there; however, as such predictions go, he didn't do too badly. Notably he predicts a trend towards more ubiquitous personal computing devices, which I think has happened to some degree.

 

[jimlintott]

3. Physical money (paper and metal) will have almost vanished.

For me it pretty much has. I rarely carry cash and rarely need it. I use debit or credit cards and online banking to pay all my bills. I don't even have a chequing account.

For Canadian retailers, not taking debit cards will draw endless complaints from customers.

 

[aerosolben]

For me it pretty much has. I rarely carry cash and rarely need it. I use debit or credit cards and online banking to pay all my bills. I don't even have a chequing account.

For Canadian retailers, not taking debit cards will draw endless complaints from customers.

How does one have a debit card without a chequing account?

/suspects evil Candian plot

 

[jimlintott]

How does one have a debit card without a chequing account?

I dunno, by asking, I guess.

Many retailers here won't take cheques at all. They just expect you to use debit.

 

[aerosolben]

I dunno, by asking, I guess.

Many retailers here won't take cheques at all. They just expect you to use debit.

I ask because, in my experience, debit cards generally pay for purchases by deducting from a chequing account.

 

[garys_2k]

From a purely technical point of view he was right on the money with most of those. It's only commercial and/or social issues that hold some of them back now.

But most of his predictions have implied social acceptance. He doesn't limit it to "we could provide doctors with pocket-size diagnostic aids to carry, containing all relevant medical records," he says they will do so. Maybe that was paraphrasing, but he does seem to be making social predictions.

O,BTW, I too run pretty cashless. Debit card all the way.

 

[jimlintott]

I ask because, in my experience, debit cards generally pay for purchases by deducting from a chequing account.

It's a savings account that it's linked to.

 

[iain]

But most of his predictions have implied social acceptance. He doesn't limit it to "we could provide doctors with pocket-size diagnostic aids to carry, containing all relevant medical records," he says they will do so. Maybe that was paraphrasing, but he does seem to be making social predictions.

I haven't read the book thoroughly, but that is how I take it. He has specific chapters discussing the political and social implications of computing, for example.

However, on this basis his second group of predictions is pretty much right. For example, he talks about wrist-worn communicators. We have mobile phones which could easily be made into a wrist-watch so, given the two decades inbetween, he's so close on that one to call it a direct hit in my view.

 

[iain]

I ask because, in my experience, debit cards generally pay for purchases by deducting from a chequing account.

In Holland (and Germany too, I think) there is no such thing as chequebooks : transfers are done direct to the other person's bank account. No signing for credit/debit cards either : just enter your PIN number in the shop. This second one, standard in much of Europe for a while now, is finally being introduced to the UK during this year : civilisation at last (or at least lower card fraud at last).

In the UK, the majority of transactions are still cash though; mainly because people buy a lot of low priced items (e.g. in pubs, newsagents, canteens) and a smaller number of higher priced items. Probably the amount of money transferred is much higher for non-cash transactions. There have been trials with non-physical cash but it hasn't caught on.

 

[epepke]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Computing predictions from 1979

Dunno about that. But if I recall correctly he said no-one would use a front door key from 1985

Hmmm... I still have the same exact front-door key that I had in 1977 for my mother's house, and it still works. Of course, all the anodized color has long been worn off.

English-style leaf locks do seem to have gone by the wayside, though. Which is not a bad thing. I had to take apart the lock on the front door of the flat in Covent Garden every year because the leaves stuck together.

 

[aerosolben]

It's a savings account that it's linked to.

I see. Mine is linked to a savings account too, but the bank charges me if the money must be taken from the savings and not the chequing (because I have not transferred enough to the chequing). Time to find a new bank, perhaps.

 

[aerosolben]

There have been trials with non-physical cash but it hasn't caught on.

They do non-physical cash things with university meal plans at some schools, but I imagine it would be much less practical to do in a larger setting. Perhaps a small card swiped across a sensor with no authentication, but limited to a certain amount of purchase power per diem to discourage theft; still, this requires overhead, and cash is just easier.