challenge scenario - the odds

[uneasy]

I know there was a gambling thread before, but I've been thinking about this scenario. Devil's advocate here...

Here's my paranormal power. I can make any number of coins a person flips come up any way I want. Let's say all heads. I don't use my powers in day to day activities. I can only perform it under pressure of a real live test. But I'm not supposed to go into theories, so I'll just say what I can do.

To satisfy the preliminary test, I think 1000 to 1 odds are needed, so I will ask a neutral party to throw 10 coins in front of James Randi while I make them all come up heads. I don't even have to be there or know when it's done. I'm just that good. If for some reason I fail the preliminary test, according to the rules I can ask them to flip the coins every year.

To satisfy the final test, I think 1000000 to 1 odds are needed, so I will ask a neutral party to throw 20 coins in front of James Randi while I make them all come up heads.

If I'm haven't made a mistake, I have one chance in 1073741824 per year of winning a million dollars for doing nothing but some paperwork.

Am I generally correct in this? Or am I overlooking something?

 

[Guest]

Hmm, I'm surprised no one has answered this yet.

I think that what you'd be trying to do (win money for doing nothing) would be obvious, and wouldn't be allowed.

But I'm not sure.

In any case, I think that 80/1073741824 = .0000000745 is a probability that is awfully low.
(say you do this for 80 years)

The question is would JREF allow many people to do this, so one person is guaranteed to win (probabilistically)?

I doubt it, because it intention is obvious.

-Who

 

[uneasy]

Re: Re: challenge scenario - the odds

I doubt it, because it intention is obvious.
-Who [/B]

My intention would be to get a million dollars just like everyone else who tries, and people can try every year, so I don't see what the problem would be. JREF specifically asks not to be told HOW things are done, just WHAT will be done. So JREF can't ask any questions other than to work out WHAT people can do. I've clearly described WHAT, so I don't see the problem according to the rules.

 

[Guest]

Re: Re: Re: challenge scenario - the odds

My intention would be to get a million dollars just like everyone else who tries, and people can try every year, so I don't see what the problem would be. JREF specifically asks not to be told HOW things are done, just WHAT will be done. So JREF can't ask any questions other than to work out WHAT people can do. I've clearly described WHAT, so I don't see the problem according to the rules.

Your "clearly describing what" amounts to hoping to win money by doing nothing. I dunno. I think the probabilites are small enough that they'd probably let you do it. Email Randi and see.

-Who

 

[uneasy]

Re: Re: Re: Re: challenge scenario - the odds

Your "clearly describing what" amounts to hoping to win money by doing nothing. I dunno. I think the probabilites are small enough that they'd probably let you do it. Email Randi and see.
-Who

Who said I would be "doing nothing"? I might be sitting at home performing magic rituals, but JREF specifically asks people NOT to go into these details. So no one has to say how they are working their "powers" if they don't want to.

And here's one more thing. I'm going to open a school to teach other people how to do my feat. Again, JREF asks no details on how something is done, just what is done, so how I'm teaching the people has no bearing. When I've taught 1000 people, we'll all start applying. I think that will be around a million to 1 odds of winning a million per year. Better than the lottery.

Way back at the top, I mentioned this is devil's advocate stuff. I am not serious.

I'm trying to point out that maybe there's a weakness in the challenge because it doesn't ask HOW people do things. That absolves the applicants from having to explain anything but some statistical experiment. As the challengs is now, I don't see why the JREF couldn't be "mined" for a million dollars by unscrupulous applicants who just come up with valid tests (as I think my coin flipping is). And to refuse valid applicants by questioning their motives would give more ammunition to JREF critics.

But apparently I'm not clear on my point or it hasn't struck a nerve. Or people think I'm serious about my "powers". Presto chango! Flippo coino!

 

[Guest]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: challenge scenario - the odds

What I got from the reading of the JREF challenge, is that when it comes time to applying for the test or doing the test, they don't really care about the theories involved.- just do what you claim you can do.

That doesn't mean that they can't see through what you are trying to (hypothetically) scam though.

-Who

 

[Brian]

You would have to make some claim that you were doing this through paranormal means.
I'd require you to be present at the test to make sure you're using your powers and not just sitting around waiting to get lucky.
The test would be held in a place that I was going to go anyway, but involved an expensive plane ticket.

 

[meadmaster]

Hi,

Actually, I think the test would be more along the lines of having the person flip the ten coins in ten different trials. If you could make a significant number of trials come up heads (say 8 of the ten) then this would show that what you are doing is much better than chance and therefore worthy of further testing.

From what your saying you could go in and get lucky on the first try and win the million dollars. But Randi has tested dowsers who were succesful on the first trial, but after the later trials were completed they were shown to perform no better than chance. (I thought I read this in one of the commentaries, but I can't find it. I met Randi last year at a conference in West Virginia so I may have heard the story there).

That's all for now,

Mead

 

[reprise]

As the test has to be agreeable to both parties, I suspect that JREF might require a demonstration that your powers produce results which are better than those which could be achieved by chance alone.

That said, there have been occasions when the same lottery numbers have been drawn twice in a row, so it's possible that you could meet the challenge, just unlikely.

BTW if anyone ever works out how to produce this result, let me know - I want you in my corner on two-up day.

 

[Zep]

Have I missed something, or are you positing that by repeating the 10-coin toss test each year you think your probability of a specific result will increase? Or by having more people perform the test simultaneously?

 

[darling]

If I'm haven't made a mistake, I have one chance in 1073741824 per year of winning a million dollars for doing nothing but some paperwork.

Am I generally correct in this? Or am I overlooking something?

You're absolutely correct.

In most cases it is possible to win the challenge by chance. Naturally, Randi must make sure that chance is very small

 

[Crossbow]

I know there was a gambling thread before, but I've been thinking about this scenario. Devil's advocate here...

Here's my paranormal power. I can make any number of coins a person flips come up any way I want. Let's say all heads. I don't use my powers in day to day activities. I can only perform it under pressure of a real live test. But I'm not supposed to go into theories, so I'll just say what I can do.

To satisfy the preliminary test, I think 1000 to 1 odds are needed, so I will ask a neutral party to throw 10 coins in front of James Randi while I make them all come up heads. I don't even have to be there or know when it's done. I'm just that good. If for some reason I fail the preliminary test, according to the rules I can ask them to flip the coins every year.

To satisfy the final test, I think 1000000 to 1 odds are needed, so I will ask a neutral party to throw 20 coins in front of James Randi while I make them all come up heads.

If I'm haven't made a mistake, I have one chance in 1073741824 per year of winning a million dollars for doing nothing but some paperwork.

Am I generally correct in this? Or am I overlooking something?

uneasy, I think that you are correct.

In your hypothetical case:
You have clearly defined what it is you can do (required),
You have not identified how your power works (not required),
You outlined a simple binary test that should be easy to do and to evaluate (required), and
As you pointed out the odds of such a thing occurring by pure chance are approximately a 1,000,000: 1 (required).

Good work guy!

 

[Akots]

I guess this would happen:

1) Coins come up 10 times heads

2) Preliminaries passed! Yay!

3) JREF asks you to do it 50 times in a row, in a controlled lab environment, with at least 80% accuracy (or some-such acceptable rate).

 

[rwald]

I think that Randi considers 1073741824:1 odds an "acceptable risk."

 

[uneasy]

I think that Randi considers 1073741824:1 odds an "acceptable risk."

I thought I read somewhere that in general 1000:1 odds are needed for the prelim, and 1000000:1 odds are needed for the final. Or it was a comment on the radio show or something. Or I made it up.

I'm sure the money is safe. I was just thinking of a scenario.