Canada Election: 2019

[Segnosaur]

So, Canada is now in the middle of an election. (As opposed the U.S., which is never NOT in an election.)

Election day is October 21, 2019.

I was debating whether I should create a new thread or just add to the "Canada/Trudeau" thread.

Some early polling results:

The Liberals and conservatives seem to be at a statistical tie... Some polling firms have the Conservatives in the lead, while at least one shows the liberals winning. The CBC poll tracker has:
CON 34.3%
LIB 33.6%
NDP 13.7%
GRN 9.9%
BQ 4.5%
PPC 2.9%
OTH 1.1%
But, they also have the Liberals as the most likely to win either a Majority government or a minority (66%), while the Conservatives have only a 34% chance of winning.

See: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

And for those interested in the issues, MacLeans has a site that gives a summary of the policies of the different parties:
https://www.macleans.ca/politics/20...-guide-where-the-parties-stand-on-everything/
(Still early in the race, so not all parties have talked about all issues.)

So who do you support in the upcoming election?

 

[Segnosaur]

For the record, I voted 'Other'... I am voting for the Leopards Eating People's Faces party.

 

[Horatius]

"support" is far too strong of a word for my position. I'll likely vote Liberal because the Cons are a dumpster fire as far as I'm concerned, but since my riding is overwhelmingly Liberal and as such it's almost a forgone conclusion that the Libs will win it, I may go NDP again like last time, or switch it up for the Greens.

 

[psionl0]

"support" is far too strong of a word for my position. I'll likely vote Liberal because the Cons are a dumpster fire as far as I'm concerned, but since my riding is overwhelmingly Liberal and as such it's almost a forgone conclusion that the Libs will win it, I may go NDP again like last time, or switch it up for the Greens.

I believe that Canada has a FPTP system. That means that your choice is either Liberal or throw your vote away and hand the victory to the Cons by default (unless you live in a NDP or Greens stronghold).

 

[The Great Zaganza]

For the record, I voted 'Other'... I am voting for the Leopards Eating People's Faces party.

I think they are promising more than they can deliver.

 

[Segnosaur]

I believe that Canada has a FPTP system.

Yes it does.

The Liberals had promised to reform the voting system during the last election, but they couldn't decide how (and the most popular option would not have benefited the Liberals, so they scrapped it.)

That means that your choice is either Liberal or throw your vote away and hand the victory to the Cons by default (unless you live in a NDP or Greens stronghold).

Actually a lot of ridings are solidly for one party or another. I live in probably the safest Liberal riding in the country, so how I vote doesn't really matter.

However, there can be unexpected surprises... in the 2011 election, the NDP managed to land dozens of seats in Quebec (known as the 'orange crush', based on the color associated with the party), despite the fact that they never really had a presence in the province before.

And minority governments do happen, where the secondary parties do get more influence than they might normally get.

 

[Horatius]

I believe that Canada has a FPTP system. That means that your choice is either Liberal or throw your vote away and hand the victory to the Cons by default (unless you live in a NDP or Greens stronghold).

Or you live an a Liberal stronghold, with the NDP polling a strong second place the last decade or so.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottawa—Vanier#Election_results

The Cons used to poll mid-to-high 20% numbers here, but they've been dropping pretty steadily the last 3 or 4 elections, and that's even after my neighbourhood was added to the riding, which I suspect added more conservative voters compared to the previous makeup of the riding.

Even if you split the entire Liberal vote between the Greens and the NDP, you still wouldn't get a Conservative in this riding. You'd most likely end up with an NDP.

 

[Fitter]

Yes it does.

The Liberals had promised to reform the voting system during the last election, but they couldn't decide how (and the most popular option would not have benefited the Liberals, so they scrapped it.)

Actually a lot of ridings are solidly for one party or another. I live in probably the safest Liberal riding in the country, so how I vote doesn't really matter.

However, there can be unexpected surprises... in the 2011 election, the NDP managed to land dozens of seats in Quebec (known as the 'orange crush', based on the color associated with the party), despite the fact that they never really had a presence in the province before.

And minority governments do happen, where the secondary parties do get more influence than they might normally get.

Are you in Ottawa South too?

 

[Fitter]

Other. If we get a Rhinoceros Party candidate I will vote for them, if not I will spoil my ballot again. "None of the above" written across the bottom. I really wonder how much Doug Ford is going to hurt the Conservatives in Ontario. That plus Max's PPC makes me suspect a repeat Liberal majority.

 

[Belz...]

So who do you support in the upcoming election?

As usual I'll check a few days before the vote. I'm never sure who I vote for before I check their platforms and people.

Gotta love Canadian elections, though. A month of billboards, maybe a debate, some web searching, and five minutes to vote.

 

[Horatius]

That plus Max's PPC makes me suspect a repeat Liberal majority.

I'm torn on the PPC. On the one hand, I'd love to see him poll fewer votes than the margin of error in counting the votes, as that would be a pretty comprehensive refutation of his racially divisive platform. But on the other hand, every stupid racist who votes for him isn't voting for the Conservatives, which hurts their chances of forming a government.

 

[psionl0]

Or you live an a Liberal stronghold, with the NDP polling a strong second place the last decade or so.

A lucky happenstance doesn't make up for FPTP. Preferential voting would be the ideal way to allow people to vote their most preferred candidate without throwing their vote away.

Of course, up to half of all electorates are "safe" seats and how you vote in them is irrelevant. Ordinarily I would suggest MMP as the best way to ensure that the will of the people is served but from the polling figures given in the OP, it seems unlikely that there would ever be even a minority government.

 

[psionl0]

Gotta love Canadian elections, though. A month of billboards, maybe a debate, some web searching, and five minutes to vote.

I think it is that way in most non-US countries.

 

[Segnosaur]

Actually a lot of ridings are solidly for one party or another. I live in probably the safest Liberal riding in the country, so how I vote doesn't really matter.

Are you in Ottawa South too?

Ottawa/Vanier. Every MP they have had since the riding was created was a Liberal. Even in the closest Federal election, the Liberal Candidate beat their closest opponent by ~9% of the vote (although victories by >20% were common in the past).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottawa—Vanier

 

[Belz...]

I'm torn on the PPC.

I'm not. It has great range and damage, and with double sinks now you don't need to worry about heat.

 

[Segnosaur]

A lucky happenstance doesn't make up for FPTP. Preferential voting would be the ideal way to allow people to vote their most preferred candidate without throwing their vote away.

The main problem I can see with Preferential voting is that it might give the Liberals an unfair advantage. (This is a byproduct of having 3 'main' political parties. The Liberals, as the ones closest to the political center, would be the natural second choice for both NDPers who don't want to touch the 'fascist' conservatives, and for conservatives who don't want the 'socialist' NDP.) If we had more than 3 main political parties, preferential voting might make a bit more sense.

 

[Segnosaur]

Other. If we get a Rhinoceros Party candidate I will vote for them, if not I will spoil my ballot again.

Might I suggest an alternative?

From: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hungry-for-change-voter-eats-ballot-1.514302
During the 2000 federal campaign three people in Edmonton were charged under the Elections Act for willfully destroying or defacing their ballots by consuming them....Elections Canada issued a stern warning during the June 2004 federal election and included a reference to the illegal nature of ballot-eating in its Frequently Asked Questions online.

Some provinces allow voters to formally decline or refuse their ballot. There was talk of allowing it at the federal level, but it hasn't been enacted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refused_ballot#Canada

I really wonder how much Doug Ford is going to hurt the Conservatives in Ontario.

Quite possibly. A lot of federal and provincial conservatives are already making that insinuation.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ca...actor-battleground-ontario-election-1.5258303

That plus Max's PPC makes me suspect a repeat Liberal majority.

I suspected that the Liberals would win again for no other reason than Trudeau was from Quebec. Quebec supports their native sons, so the Liberals would likely sweep Quebec again. And since Quebec holds so many seats, a victory there puts a party well on the way to victory.

 

[Belz...]

The main problem I can see with Preferential voting is that it might give the Liberals an unfair advantage.

How is it unfair if people vote that way?

 

[Segnosaur]

The main problem I can see with Preferential voting is that it might give the Liberals an unfair advantage.

How is it unfair if people vote that way?

Well, people may be voting that way, but I think many people would want some sort of change in government at least every decade (to eliminate any sort of complacency and scandals that have occurred). That is less likely to happen with a proportional ballot.

Imagine the Chretien government (with its Adscam, HRDC, and gun registry scandals), with their tenure extended by another term or 2 because NDPers decide "We really don't want the conservatives".

Yea, it would still be people 'voting the way they want', but its not necessarily good for the country as a whole.

 

[psionl0]

The main problem I can see with Preferential voting is that it might give the Liberals an unfair advantage. (This is a byproduct of having 3 'main' political parties. The Liberals, as the ones closest to the political center, would be the natural second choice for both NDPers who don't want to touch the 'fascist' conservatives, and for conservatives who don't want the 'socialist' NDP.) If we had more than 3 main political parties, preferential voting might make a bit more sense.

What makes you think that the Libs don't already have that advantage? Strategic voters would know that the best way to keep the Cons out of a seat is to vote Liberal.

I don't know the seat by seat break down of Canadian elections but there is likely to be seats where the NDP and Cons are in the top two. Under FTPT that is more likely to be a slam dunk for the conservatives but if preferential voting is in place then the Lib preferences could hand the seat to the NDP.