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Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

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Dave Rogers

Bandaged ice that stampedes inexpensively through
Dave Rogers
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Tolls said:
Of course, having said that, part of them being "fine" includes Johnson remaining PM, and that won't happen is we crash out at the end of October. So he's going to have to do a rather spectacular volte face assuming parliament doesn't force his hand before then.
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I suppose, for him, the ideal situation is for Parliament to do exactly that, and for him then to blame Parliament for thwarting his best efforts to leave the EU so he can hang on to power for a while longer in the confusion. Precedent suggests that this can work for about six months.

Dave


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Posted By: zooterkin
 
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Lothian said:
Obviously these deals are not better than the ones we currently have. Do you know how long trade deals take to agree? Jesus!! They are the same terms as the EU agreed, rolled over.
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Of course any attempt to bring this up and remind the voters that we were promised far better trade deals - not just the same deals rolled over - will be dismissed as being treasonous attempts to derail a no-deal Brexit ?
 
Lothian said:
Yes, yes, yes but look at all the benefits. We have already signed fantastic* trade deals with the Faroe Islands and 11 other areas.

*No. Obviously these deals are not better than the ones we currently have. Do you know how long trade deals take to agree? Jesus!! They are the same terms as the EU agreed, rolled over.
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Canada, amongst others, have said they won't be rolling over the CETA terms immediately, they want to wait and see. The reason boils down to them expecting a No Deal Brexit, in which the UK cuts tariffs on most imports. This gives them tariff free access to UK markets while still being able to charge tariffs on UK exports to Canada.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/canada-is-refusing-to-roll-over-its-eu-trade-agreement-for
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...exit-eu-leave-us-european-union-a8985986.html
 
Lib Dems win by election.
Tories down to majority of 1

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-49200636

The Liberal Democrats have won the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, leaving new PM Boris Johnson with a working majority in Parliament of one.

Jane Dodds overturned an 8,038 majority to beat incumbent Conservative Chris Davies by 1,425 votes.

Mr Davies stood again after being unseated by a petition following his conviction for a false expenses claim.

It was the first electoral test for Mr Johnson just eight days after becoming prime minister.

It is the quickest by-election defeat for any new prime minister since World War Two.
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Labour 4th behind Brexit party

Turnout 59.6%, down from 74.6% at the general election, but it is the highest for a by-election since 1997
 
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ceptimus said:
"Possible", "Possible", "Potential", "Could", "May", ... not very sure, are they? And they're right not to be sure given the accuracy of their previous forecasts. More of the same old project fear for the sheep.
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Meanwhile people are actually being made redundant now and their jobs are moving to the EU.

And for what?
 
ceptimus said:
"Possible", "Possible", "Potential", "Could", "May", ... not very sure, are they? And they're right not to be sure given the accuracy of their previous forecasts. More of the same old project fear for the sheep.
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Prior to the Brexit vote the BoE saud the economy would shrink, growth would slow and sterling would fall. At the time IDS and JRM criticised Carney's suggestion that sterling could suffer. The BoE were correct.

And yes he did say 'could'. Forecasts are subject to a number of variables. Following Brexit there was an unprecedented amount of quantitative easing to stave off the worst of the predicted effects.

Of course the BoE are just giving their view. Happy for you to bring in quotes from people who think that immediate after brexit the pound will soar and the economy with get a huge boost. I would be delighted to hear what Keith on Facebook has to say,
 
Dave Rogers said:
I suppose, for him, the ideal situation is for Parliament to do exactly that, and for him then to blame Parliament for thwarting his best efforts to leave the EU so he can hang on to power for a while longer in the confusion. Precedent suggests that this can work for about six months.

Dave
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I fully expect that that is precisely his plan.
Force Parliament to stop it, then go to the country proclaiming that he need s a majority to get Brexit through.

And the odds of that being successful probably depend on whether he strikes a deal with Farage. Except I can't see Farage wanting to play second fiddle to Johnson, so I wouldn't expect any deal to survive the 5 weeks or so of an election campaign.
 
ceptimus said:
"Possible", "Possible", "Potential", "Could", "May", ... not very sure, are they? And they're right not to be sure given the accuracy of their previous forecasts. More of the same old project fear for the sheep.
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Still denigrating the experts because they reveal the painful truths brexiteers don't want to hear.
:rolleyes:

jimbob said:
Meanwhile people are actually being made redundant now and their jobs are moving to the EU.

And for what?
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Blue passports, made in France.
 
ceptimus said:
"Possible", "Possible", "Potential", "Could", "May", ... not very sure, are they? And they're right not to be sure given the accuracy of their previous forecasts. More of the same old project fear for the sheep.
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Project fear what what sheep? These are briefings for government not facebook posts from Brexiteer loons.
 
//referencing various statements made about what is and isn't a country//

The idea that the fact that you used to be a country makes a... political unit (the language is obviously going to get a little fuzzy) different from all other equivalent political units rather non-convincing.

This is the Texas Mentality here in the states. "We're a special state because we used to be a country." No you aren't buckaroo.
 
jimbob said:
Meanwhile people are actually being made redundant now and their jobs are moving to the EU.

And for what?
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And that never happened before Brexit?

People always have been, and continue to be, made redundant in every country in the world. How are you going to blame those redundancies on Brexit?
 
ceptimus said:
"Possible", "Possible", "Potential", "Could", "May", ... not very sure, are they?
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And, if course, if they had been very sure, you'd be saying "They're obviously exaggerating because they couldn't possibly know that for certain."

(That doesn't apply, naturally, to predictions like "There will be no downside, only a considerable upside," or "It will be the easiest deal in history," because reasons.)

Dave
 
Dave Rogers said:
And, if course, if they had been very sure, you'd be saying "They're obviously exaggerating because they couldn't possibly know that for certain."

(That doesn't apply, naturally, to predictions like "There will be no downside, only a considerable upside," or "It will be the easiest deal in history," because reasons.)

Dave
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The uneducated prefer ******** certainty over accurate descriptions that allow for the real world. That's why this **** works.

Anyone being properly uncertain about the future is lambasted, as above. Anyone demonstrating unreasonable certainty is believed by idiots because that's how chimp brains work.
 
ceptimus said:
And that never happened before Brexit?

People always have been, and continue to be, made redundant in every country in the world. How are you going to blame those redundancies on Brexit?
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They're only blamed on Brexit when the companies making the redundancies specifically mention Brexit as a major factor in the decision.

A much bigger issue is that companies are also choosing to make investment, and create jobs, in other countries when that investment could realistically have come to the UK had we remained in the EU.

The financial services industry has provided excellent examples of both of these with jobs being lost and with new initiatives being set up in Dublin, Paris and Frankfurt instead of London.

Foreign Direct Investment has taken a significant hit since the Brexit referendum vote.

London remained the part of the UK that attracted the largest amount of investment. However, even the capital was hit by the decline with the number of jobs created by foreign investment falling by 14 per cent compared with March 2018 and by 28 per cent compared with 2017.*

Elsewhere the fall was even more stark. In Scotland and the Yorkshire and Humber regions the number of jobs created as a result of foreign investment more than halved in the year ending in March.
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https://www.ft.com/content/6416a20a-9805-11e9-8cfb-30c211dcd229

It's sadly ironic that the parts of the country which voted Leave are the ones being hit hardest by the implications of their actions. :(
 
3point14 said:
The uneducated prefer ******** certainty over accurate descriptions that allow for the real world. That's why this **** works.

Anyone being properly uncertain about the future is lambasted, as above. Anyone demonstrating unreasonable certainty is believed by idiots because that's how chimp brains work.
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I think the message also has to align with what they want to hear. Someone stating unequivocally that Brexit will be utterly dire will also be ignored whereas someone offering guarded assurances of a successful Brexit will tend to be believed.

To be fair it cuts both ways. I'd be more inclined to examine critically, claims that Brexit will be a resounding success (or at the other end of the scale, that it would be so dire that martial law will be declared and internment camps set up) than I would claims that it will be a pain in the rear but that civilisation will not come to an end.
 
The Don said:
They're only blamed on Brexit when the companies making the redundancies specifically mention Brexit as a major factor in the decision.

A much bigger issue is that companies are also choosing to make investment, and create jobs, in other countries when that investment could realistically have come to the UK had we remained in the EU.

The financial services industry has provided excellent examples of both of these with jobs being lost and with new initiatives being set up in Dublin, Paris and Frankfurt instead of London.
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True. You can't build office space in the Docklands fast enough for the influx.
Sweet jeebus but I'm going to have to do fewer lunches in G*****...
 
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