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Blackjack and Casinos

Quasi

Critical Thinker
Joined
Oct 7, 2002
Messages
424
I was talking with my father who reads lots of books on math, and he came up on a book written by some MIT mathematicians. Anyway, five or six of them would all crowd up on one black jack table and would all bet, and stay pat. The probability of one player drawing at least an 18-20 is very high, and forces the dealer to draw cards, and go bust. When that happens, everyone wins, and gets money. In the book, the MIT guys started making serious money, and were thrown out of the casinos. Anyone try this? For those of you who are not familiar with casino blackjack- you cannot bust on the initial cards dealt, and the dealer must draw, I believe at 14 or less for most casinos. So when everyone stays pat, the casino pays out a lot more rather than playing to each individuals greed, which causes only a few or one player to win each deal. This changes the probability of winning in favor of the players. :)
 
If the casinos throw them out that is usually a good sign that they have a method that works. However the dealer wins all tie, I am not sure how many playing as a team would be needed, what are the pay outs in black jack?
 
I think you have misunderstood the rules at most casino blackjack tables. The dealer's play does not depend on anything the individual players do. The dealer's play is determined by an automatic set of rather simple rules and must be implemented the same in all cases, regardless of whether any players stay, take a hit, take 5 hits, bust, or split or double down. The dealer's play never changes according to the play of the players.

For instance, at many casinos, the dealer must hit until he reaches 17. At that point or higher, he must stop. He has no discretion to hit an 18 or not. A major variant is whether the dealer must stand on a soft 17 or not. At most casinos I have been to, a dealer must--not may--hit a soft 17.

Another rule nearly universal in casinos is that the dealer must offer insurance to all players when the dealer's up card is an Ace. Again, his play does not depend on whether anyone actually takes insurance.

Mathematicians using computers and blackjack simulation programs determined the odds of winning and the "correct" statistical play given any set of cards in the player's hand and the dealer's up card long ago, in the 1960s. Since that time, many books using such odds have explained the correct play according to what is usually called "Basic Strategy" given any particular hand versus the dealer's. The other players' hands do not figure into the strategy at all, unless one is counting cards effectively, which can be done but is only for very experienced and skillful knowledgeable players.

The only variations to Basic Strategy are dependent on about a half-dozen minor rule variations which can be found from casino to casino, or even from table to table. Asking the dealer at any table for its policy on those minor rules is a good idea, and will affect the correct Basic Strategy play of a skilled and knowledgeable player. These days, there are no "skilled" players who do not have an intimate knowledge of Basic Strategy and a firm understanding of and confidence in the statistical odds involved.

The one thing in this regard I find so hard to believe are that many intelligent, well-educated persons so often distrust statistical tables regarding the odds. Many of the correct plays seem to be counterintuitive, and these persons will often disregard the correct play in favor of the more intuitive play. That is a fatal error in blackjack play, as one simply must employ Basic Strategy play relentlessly, with rare and subtle variations if one is counting cards effectively, in order to maximize the odds of winning consistently. It is decidedly not a game for hunches, luck, superstition, or kooky systems.

Despite a widely held misbelief to the contrary, any given player's correct basic strategy play is absolutely independent from the other players' play at the same table. I hear other players make remarks constantly such as "He took my 5," or, "You've got a bigger bet on the table; I'll stand or take a hit based on whatever you decide." These remarks demonstrate a fundamental lack of understanding of odds and the probability of whether a player will derive a winning or hand or not from hitting or standing. Also misunderstood by beginners is that there really is no interplay among players. The blackjack player need not beat any other player. He is playing against the dealer alone.

The dealer has no stake in the game and merely functions to deal the cards, enforce the rules, rake or pay bets, and play his hand according to a set of automatic rules. He exercises no discretion whatsoever with respect to the play of the his hand.

I fear that either you have misunderstood what you have read or heard, or you have been misinformed.

AS
 

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