Best Solution For Iraq

[WildCat]

Leaving the area would mean for the US to give up its position of global hegemony, highly unlikely to happen voluntarily. Persian Gulf oil is simply too valuable for that.

Irrelevant. The oil isn't ours now, it never was, and never will be. Iran will still sell it, they have to sell it since they've got nothing else.

I think Iran and Syria would be able to make a deal about dividing Iraq into spheres of influence, their interests there (a stable area outside US influence) coincide and they've cooperated before.

Saudi Arabia may have something to say about that, Jordan also. In fact, SA has already said they will give military aid to the Sunnis if the US leaves.

Iran will be faced w/ millions of refugees straining its already bad economy, and unrest at home as the economy sinks further. Why should the US spare them this fate?

 

[fuelair]

Iran will be faced w/ millions of refugees straining its already bad economy, and unrest at home as the economy sinks further. Why should the US spare them this fate?

If certain, I'm all for it!!!

 

[egslim]

Irrelevant.

No, it's not, guaranteeing a secure supply of oil is a major goal of US foreign politics.

Saudi Arabia may have something to say about that, Jordan also.

SA isn't that stable. They need a quick solution as much as Iran does. Even if they give military aid a Sunni dominated Iraq is unlikely, so they'll probably settle for dividing Iraq into spheres of influence.

Iran will be faced w/ millions of refugees straining its already bad economy, and unrest at home as the economy sinks further. Why should the US spare them this fate?

Control over shiite Iraq will give them control over vast oil reserves and a better strategic position.

I think you're extremely optimistic if you believe the outcome would be so much in favor of the US/bad for Iran. It's much more realistic to assume different outcomes are possible, with many of them bad for the US. Betting on any one of them would be a big gamble.

 

[geni]

No, it's not, guaranteeing a secure supply of oil is a major goal of US foreign politics.

Canda's tar sands may come in very handy. However it is in the interests of all the players in the middle east to see that the oild still reaches the market

Control over shiite Iraq will give them control over vast oil reserves and a better strategic position.

Iran is persian. Iraq is arab. Degree of control posible is limted.

 

[egslim]

Canda's tar sands may come in very handy. However it is in the interests of all the players in the middle east to see that the oild still reaches the market

If the oil supply was already secure, why did the US Navy escort commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf during the Iraq-Iran war? And why are oil platforms in the Gulf currently protected by the US Coast Guard?

Iran is persian. Iraq is arab. Degree of control posible is limted.

True, but if during a civil war the US covertly supports the Sunnis as well as continues to put pressure on Iran such an outside threat would invite much closer cooperation between the two.

 

[geni]

If the oil supply was already secure, why did the US Navy escort commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf during the Iraq-Iran war? And why are oil platforms in the Gulf currently protected by the US Coast Guard?

Cheaper than paying the locals to do it.

True, but if during a civil war the US covertly supports the Sunnis as well as continues to put pressure on Iran such an outside threat would invite much closer cooperation between the two.

Why would the US support the Sunnis? We have saudi arabia for that.