Arafat is in sad shape, so....

Dorian Gray

Hypocrisy Detector
Dorian Gray
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Nov 15, 2002
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What does that mean for Israel, America and the world if he dies? Talk about your October surprise.
 
Honestly, I don't see how things could be any worse.

The Pollyanna view: The opponents he hasn't already murdered and who actually care about some sort of representative government and who actually care about what's best for the Palestinians, come to power, hold real elections in a few months - not like the sham that got him promoted from "Chairman" to "President." They go back to the negotiating table with Israel and say, "Remember that deal that Clinton brokered between Arafat and Barak that gave us 97% of the West Bank and all of Gaza, that that idiot Arafat whacked with his polo mallet? Let's hear that again..." Israel agrees, recognizes the independent nation of Palestine, and an uneasy peace prevails between the two countries, akin to the peace between Egypt and Israel. They don't send each other Christmas cards, but they aren't blowing each others' brains out.

What I think will happen: Syria, Iran, and (behind the scenes) Egypt find another thug they like, help put him in place with money and guns and a few necessary murders, as part of their larger strategy to keep Israel slowly bleeding, which is part of their even larger strategy to keep the U.S. slowly bleeding.
 
Dorian Gray said:
What does that mean for Israel, America and the world if he dies? Talk about your October surprise.
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Excuse me for asking but what makes you think Arafat is even sick? Think before you answer.
 
BPSCG said:
Honestly, I don't see how things could be any worse.

The Pollyanna view: The opponents he hasn't already murdered and who actually care about some sort of representative government and who actually care about what's best for the Palestinians, come to power, hold real elections in a few months - not like the sham that got him promoted from "Chairman" to "President." They go back to the negotiating table with Israel and say, "Remember that deal that Clinton brokered between Arafat and Barak that gave us 97% of the West Bank and all of Gaza, that that idiot Arafat whacked with his polo mallet? Let's hear that again..." Israel agrees, recognizes the independent nation of Palestine, and an uneasy peace prevails between the two countries, akin to the peace between Egypt and Israel. They don't send each other Christmas cards, but they aren't blowing each others' brains out.
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Hasn't Sharon said that he won't agree to those terms?
 
Re: Re: Arafat is in sad shape, so....

Rob Lister said:
Excuse me for asking but what makes you think Arafat is even sick? Think before you answer.
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Because it's in the news, I won't rule out the possibility that Arafat could be faking it, but it seems to me the BOP belongs with the conspiracy theorist. I'd need some credible motive for this presumed deception, before I believed it, and even then Arafat is an old man who AFAIK isn't particularly healthy, it doesn't seem farfetched that he would get sick.
 
Kerberos said:
Hasn't Sharon said that he won't agree to those terms?
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Yup. That deal is dead. The Roadmap to Peace is the latest "deal" of a long line of deals since 1993 that America and the world have tried to broker between Israel and the sole decision maker for every Palestinian on earth, Yasser Arafat.

[edited to add]

By the laws of the Palestinian constitution the speaker of the Legislative Council takes control for 60 days after which elections should take place.

Article 125
 
Re: Re: Re: Arafat is in sad shape, so....

Kerberos said:
Because it's in the news, I won't rule out the possibility that Arafat could be faking it, but it seems to me the BOP belongs with the conspiracy theorist. I'd need some credible motive for this presumed deception, before I believed it, and even then Arafat is an old man who AFAIK isn't particularly healthy, it doesn't seem farfetched that he would get sick.
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Because under this pretense it allows him to leave the compound to travel and meet (in privacy) with anyone he wants. I'm not saying he isn't sick, I'm just saying that the only evidence we have that he is sick is self-serving. At best it is a coin toss.
 
Dorian Gray said:
What does that mean for Israel, America and the world if he dies? Talk about your October surprise.
Click to expand...

I think the biggest problem will come if Hamas hop into the breach, which they just might do.
 
Re: Re: Re: Re: Arafat is in sad shape, so....

Rob Lister said:
Because under this pretense it allows him to leave the compound to travel and meet (in privacy) with anyone he wants. I'm not saying he isn't sick, I'm just saying that the only evidence we have that he is sick is self-serving. At best it is a coin toss.
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What makes you think they will let him meet anyone he wants? From what I understand, Israel has said they will allow him to visit a medical facility only - and I'm sure they won't let this visit be unmonitored.

Also interesting - Israel has promised that Arafat will be allowed to visit a medical center to get treatment. What they haven't said is if they will allow him back to his compound. I think, if Arafat leaves, he aint coming back...
 
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Arafat is in sad shape, so....

rhoadp said:
Also interesting - Israel has promised that Arafat will be allowed to visit a medical center to get treatment. What they haven't said is if they will allow him back to his compound. I think, if Arafat leaves, he aint coming back...
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Israel are now saying they will allow him back.
 
BPSCG said:
Honestly, I don't see how things could be any worse.

The Pollyanna view: The opponents he hasn't already murdered and who actually care about some sort of representative government and who actually care about what's best for the Palestinians, come to power, hold real elections in a few months - not like the sham that got him promoted from "Chairman" to "President." They go back to the negotiating table with Israel and say, "Remember that deal that Clinton brokered between Arafat and Barak that gave us 97% of the West Bank and all of Gaza, that that idiot Arafat whacked with his polo mallet? Let's hear that again..." Israel agrees, recognizes the independent nation of Palestine, and an uneasy peace prevails between the two countries, akin to the peace between Egypt and Israel. They don't send each other Christmas cards, but they aren't blowing each others' brains out.
Click to expand...


These opponets are going to include hammas. I think we can safely rule out them negotating with israel.
 
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Arafat is in sad shape, so....

rhoadp said:
What makes you think they will let him meet anyone he wants? From what I understand, Israel has said they will allow him to visit a medical facility only - and I'm sure they won't let this visit be unmonitored.

Also interesting - Israel has promised that Arafat will be allowed to visit a medical center to get treatment. What they haven't said is if they will allow him back to his compound. I think, if Arafat leaves, he aint coming back...
Click to expand...

Actually they have said he can come back (IMS). The plan is now a hospital in France. That should allow as much privacy and resources as desired.
 
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Arafat is in sad shape, so....

Rob Lister said:
Actually they have said he can come back (IMS). The plan is now a hospital in France. That should allow as much privacy and resources as desired.
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I had heard (on the TV, so take it for what it's worth) that they would let him return to the compound from a hospital in Ramallah. I'd bet that if he gets to France, he'll never in his life, long or short, return to the West Bank or Gaza prior to the existence of Palestine.
 
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Arafat is in sad shape, so....

hgc said:
I had heard (on the TV, so take it for what it's worth) that they would let him return to the compound from a hospital in Ramallah. I'd bet that if he gets to France, he'll never in his life, long or short, return to the West Bank or Gaza prior to the existence of Palestine.
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expand pls.
 
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Arafat is in sad shape, so....

Rob Lister said:
expand pls.
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What I mean is that if he leaves Palestinean territory, Israel will never let him return -- at least as long as they're in control. Israel has wanted him out for 3 years now, and the encroachment on the Ramallah compound was an attempt to expel him. They stopped short because if he were to die in such an action, it would be very, very bad, politically. His confinement to the compound is a compromise by both sides. If he leaves voluntarily, it will be defacto expulsion.
 
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Arafat is in sad shape, so....

hgc said:
What I mean is that if he leaves Palestinean territory, Israel will never let him return -- at least as long as they're in control. Israel has wanted him out for 3 years now, and the encroachment on the Ramallah compound was an attempt to expel him. They stopped short because if he were to die in such an action, it would be very, very bad, politically. His confinement to the compound is a compromise by both sides. If he leaves voluntarily, it will be defacto expulsion.
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I've never really understood why an Arafat who is refused permission by Israel to return to Palestine but is free to meet who he wishes and go where he wants is of any advantage to Israel. Unless of course one is naive enough to think that that the whole conflict would just fade away if one left it to that nice Mr Sharon to sort things out.

As far as I can see the best thing that could happen at this point would be for Arafat to die of natural causes and Sharon to be assassinated by loony jews. Maybe new people on each side could make some progress and at least there would be two less arseholes in the area.
 
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Arafat is in sad shape, so....

Nikk said:
I've never really understood why an Arafat who is refused permission by Israel to return to Palestine but is free to meet who he wishes and go where he wants is of any advantage to Israel. Unless of course one is naive enough to think that that the whole conflict would just fade away if one left it to that nice Mr Sharon to sort things out.

...
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As long he's confined to the compound, Israel can know exactly who's coming and going. He may wish to meet with someone who can't come to him because Israel would arrest them on sight. But of course Israel would rather have him living abroad, as that would largely de-legitimize him.
 
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