al-Zarqawi helps out

[GroundStrength]

National Security Adviser Mouwafak al-Rubaie also said he believed the security situation in the country would improve enough to allow a large number of U.S.-led forces to leave Iraq by the end of this year, and a majority to depart by the end of next year. "And maybe the last soldier will leave Iraq by mid-2008," he said.

Al-Rubaie said a laptop, flashdrive and other documents were found in the debris after the airstrike that killed the al-Qaida in Iraq leader last week outside Baqouba, and more information has been uncovered in raids of other insurgent hideouts since then.

He called it a "huge treasure ... a huge amount of information."



When asked how he could be sure the information was authentic, al-Rubaie said "there is nothing more authentic than finding a thumbdrive in his pocket."

"We believe that this is the beginning of the end of al-Qaida in Iraq," al-Rubaie said, adding that the documents showed al-Qaida is in "pretty bad shape," politically and in terms of training, weapons and media.

from here...

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20060615/D8I8JAC80.html


More good news!!!

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/I/IRAQ_RAIDS?SITE=7219&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2006-06-15-08-25-20

Insurgent Plans (shades of Haditha?)

http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/06/15/D8I8LJBG0.html


Positively positive.

 

[Jocko]

I'll give you odds Murtha is at a podium by the end of the day, expressing doubts as to authenticity.

 

[GroundStrength]

I'll give you odds Murtha is at a podium by the end of the day, expressing doubts as to authenticity.

Yes, because we all know how genuine mr. murtha is...

 

[geni]

Al-Zarqawi wasn't really a mjaor player in the troubles though.

 

[DaChew]

Al-Zarqawi wasn't really a mjaor player in the troubles though.

If you're trouble was that someone was cutting your head off with a dull knife then, most likely, Zarqawi was a major player.

 

[BPSCG]

If you're trouble was that someone was cutting your head off with a dull knife then, most likely, Zarqawi was a major player.

I think geni meant "The Troubles," i.e., Northern Ireland.

 

[GroundStrength]

Al-Zarqawi wasn't really a mjaor player in the troubles though.

This must be why the information gathered from the laptop, thumbdrive, papers and other sources recovered from the rubble led to ONLY 759 arrests and ONLY 104 deaths of insurgents and ONLY 452 raids that are sure to net even greater information with which to destroy the terrorists with.

but you just go on and keep focusing on the negatives.

 

[Jocko]

Al-Zarqawi wasn't really a mjaor player in the troubles though.

How can you reconcile your advance peek of Murtha's notes with the massive amount of actionable intelligence that was obviously gleaned from those materials?

I mean, he apparently knew over 500 "troublemakers" if you count arrests and casualties combined in just a matter of days. How is that "not major"?

 

[geni]

If you're trouble was that someone was cutting your head off with a dull knife then, most likely, Zarqawi was a major player.

Oh he was the top guy PR wise but he wqas always going to have trouble as an outsider.

 

[geni]

I think geni meant "The Troubles," i.e., Northern Ireland.

No i've just given up trying to spell insergency and feel that "the troubles" is quite a good description of what is going on in Iraq these days.

 

[geni]

How can you reconcile your advance peek of Murtha's notes with the massive amount of actionable intelligence that was obviously gleaned from those materials?

I mean, he apparently knew over 500 "troublemakers" if you count arrests and casualties combined in just a matter of days. How is that "not major"?

At a guess because he had some level of comunication with other networks. Problem is he won't have had any with the Shia lot.

 

[Jocko]

At a guess because he had some level of comunication with other networks. Problem is he won't have had any with the Shia lot.

Considering the Shia generally aren't into Ba'athism OR al Qaeda-style troublemaking, how is that a problem?

 

[geni]

Considering the Shia generally aren't into Ba'athism OR al Qaeda-style troublemaking, how is that a problem?

They are into Iraqi style troublem makeing. Worse they appear to be into Iran style trouble makeing although generaly not in Iraq. It is a problem if the civil conflict has got far enough to keep going under it's own steam.

 

[Jocko]

They are into Iraqi style troublem makeing. Worse they appear to be into Iran style trouble makeing although generaly not in Iraq. It is a problem if the civil conflict has got far enough to keep going under it's own steam.

Fine as far as it goes, but there are two things missing here:

1. AZ and crew were responsible for manufacturing a great deal of staged "civil strife," so the degree of ACTUAL civil strife is very much in question.
2. Even if it isn't, you haven't really shown that AZ was not a major player. Simply pointing out other sources of trouble isn't an answer.

No one's expecting Disneyland to bloom. But after all the crap the Iraqis have put up with, they're entitled to celebrate this development.

 

[geni]

Fine as far as it goes, but there are two things missing here:

1. AZ and crew were responsible for manufacturing a great deal of staged "civil strife," so the degree of ACTUAL civil strife is very much in question.

That is of course the $64,000 question

2. Even if it isn't, you haven't really shown that AZ was not a major player. Simply pointing out other sources of trouble isn't an answer.

He is a foreigner which makes urban gorilla war difficult. Iraq wasn't exactly a hotbed of religious fanaticism and what there was mostly among the shia. So he would have had trouble recruiting (although he would have been in a good position to pick up funding). Looking at the level of violence there have to been an order of magnitude more people involved than have been arrested at a minimum. The troubles predate him which means there is at least some level of grass roots support for killing US troops. The level of grass roots support for killing each other is the difficult bit. It is also the important bit.

 

[Jocko]

He is a foreigner which makes urban gorilla war difficult. Iraq wasn't exactly a hotbed of religious fanaticism and what there was mostly among the shia.

So why so much time spent trying to foment a Sunni-Shia conflict?

So he would have had trouble recruiting (although he would have been in a good position to pick up funding). Looking at the level of violence there have to been an order of magnitude more people involved than have been arrested at a minimum.

Sure, but like I said, this is the total take in 48 hours. That's a lot of bad guys accounted for to call him "not a major player."

The troubles predate him which means there is at least some level of grass roots support for killing US troops. The level of grass roots support for killing each other is the difficult bit. It is also the important bit.

Of course. But that still doesn't discount the importance of AZ's data. Slice it any way you like, but he was clearly plugged in.

 

[geni]

So why so much time spent trying to foment a Sunni-Shia conflict?

Because it is makes things more difficult for the US than mearly attacking US personell. And he probably doesn't like shias that much

Sure, but like I said, this is the total take in 48 hours. That's a lot of bad guys accounted for to call him "not a major player."

The army is moveing fast before the intelligance goes cold. They have probably nabed the complete list.

Of course. But that still doesn't discount the importance of AZ's data. Slice it any way you like, but he was clearly plugged in.

To some groups certainly. Give it another 48 hours before drawing conclusions.

 

[Jocko]

Give it another 48 hours before drawing conclusions.

Exactly the advice I'd offer you...

 

[Zep]

When asked how he could be sure the information was authentic, al-Rubaie said "there is nothing more authentic than finding a thumbdrive in his pocket."

Hmmm... I have borrowed a thumbdrive from work the last week or so. It has my boss's data on it, and who knows what else besides. So what's the situation if I had an accident and someone used questionable data from that drive to "authenticate" my involvement in my boss's possibly neffy schemes? Guilt by association?

What's the proof that any information purported to be on that drive came from that drive at all? Or was there when it was found? 30 seconds in someone else's laptop will load it with anything you like...

There are millions of these little things infesting the world, just like data CDs. So we know this one definitely came from Al Quaeda how?

Frankly, I'm personally inclined to agree that the data is real, and from the source claimed. But a rigorous test of that chain of evidence might be a problem.

 

[BPSCG]

Hmmm... I have borrowed a thumbdrive from work the last week or so. It has my boss's data on it, and who knows what else besides. So what's the situation if I had an accident and someone used questionable data from that drive to "authenticate" my involvement in my boss's possibly neffy schemes? Guilt by association?

What's the proof that any information purported to be on that drive came from that drive at all? Or was there when it was found? 30 seconds in someone else's laptop will load it with anything you like...

So, what, you're saying it could be from Zarqawi's boss? Even better.

There are millions of these little things infesting the world, just like data CDs. So we know this one definitely came from Al Quaeda how?

Frankly, I'm personally inclined to agree that the data is real, and from the source claimed. But a rigorous test of that chain of evidence might be a problem.

The "rigorous test of that claim" is raiding houses based on the info in the thumb drive. Sounds like it was pretty reliable. Whether it was Zarqawi's personal drive or something he just copied off another computer, sounds like it was a big haul.