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Afghanistan long term

Puppycow

Penultimate Amazing
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After 2014, when supposedly the Afghan army is mostly trained and equipped to take over for leaving NATO forces, what are our goals?

I see basically one goal: Don't let the Taliban take over again.

After spending over $50 billion to train and equip the Afghan National Army, can we assume that they will be able to handle that mostly by themselves?

To illustrate how expensive it is to keep US (or NATO) troops there, consider this fact:
It costs as much as $400/gallon just to get gasoline there. And you probably thought that paying $4 or $5 at the pump was a lot.

The Obama Administration is currently considering this question.

Some in administration push for only a few thousand U.S. troops in Afghanistan after 2014

Groups within the Obama administration are pushing to keep no more than a few thousand troops in Afghanistan after 2014, U.S. officials said, raising the prospect that the United States will be unable to keep its promise to fully train and equip Afghan security forces.

As the debate over the size and scope of the post-2014 coalition mission nears its end, some in the administration are pressing for a force that could be as small as 2,500, arguing that a light touch would be the most constructive way to cap the costly, unpopular war.

Those troop levels are significantly lower than what some senior military officials have advocated, arguing that a sudden disengagement could lead to the collapse of a frail state and the onset of a new civil war. The low number also is a far cry from figures in the 10,000-to-30,000 range discussed among NATO allies and some U.S. officials as recently as a year ago.

. . .

White House officials said Tuesday that they have not ruled out leaving no troops at all when the U.N. security mandate sanctioning the international coalition expires, saying they might find non-military means to meet U.S. objectives in Afghanistan.

. . .

Among the issues are whether the U.S. troops can conduct counterterrorism operations on their own and whether they would be immune from Afghan law.

The troop levels under serious consideration range from 2,500 to 6,000, the senior defense official said.

. . .

“You’ll end up doing nothing outside of Kabul,” said another senior U.S. official involved in Afghanistan, referring to the 2,500 figure.

With 6,000 troops, the United States would retain the capability to run Bagram air base, a key hub outside the capital. But that could leave the United States without a military presence in southern Afghanistan, the Taliban’s heartland and the focus of Obama’s 2010 troop surge.
 
In 2004, I read a book by CIA analyst Michael Scheuer called "Imperial Hubris". It was mostly a screed against the Bush administration's policies vis-a-vie Iraq. In same, the author predicted that within ten years there would again be a Taliban-run Afghanistan.

Sure seems like he may be right....

All of the analysis I've seen of the situation is extremely dire. The Taliban remain entrenched, and continue to get support from various players in the area. The non-Taliban Afghans are unimpressed with the West, and see the Karzai government as deeply corrupt and untrustworthy.
The populace often expresses that the Taliban provide better justice and services than does the government. The way we are running the war results in the deaths of numbers of Taliban which are quickly replaced as there is no lack of new recruits. Meanwhile, the "hearts and minds" war goes badly.
The more modern, progressive Afghans simply leave.
All of the analysts say pretty much the same thing...The only reason for staying in Afghanistan is Pakistan. Everyone is terrified of a Taliban (or other extremist group) takeover of that deeply troubled and nuclear-armed state.
 
The money poured into nation building in Afghanistan, might be the worst misappropriation of funds since I got really drunk and bought an Ab-Shaper via Tell Sell.
 
The only reason for staying in Afghanistan is Pakistan. Everyone is terrified of a Taliban (or other extremist group) takeover of that deeply troubled and nuclear-armed state.

Hmm, I doubt that having troops in Afghanistan could prevent that if it were going to happen. Not that I think it will.

And, still, Pakistan is about as far away from the United States as you can get. It is a problem for India, but not really a critical problem for the US.
 
After 2014, when supposedly the Afghan army is mostly trained and equipped to take over for leaving NATO forces, what are our goals?

I see basically one goal: Don't let the Taliban take over again.

We need some definition of the term "Taliban" if we are to have any coherent discussion. I expect it's used as loosely as "Al Queda" to describe insurgents of any stripe. Foreign funded insurgents promoting a religious state and greater caliphate ?

How can they be deterred with a porous Pakistan border and the penchant for Saudis', Paki's, Iranians and AlQueda to support them ?

Then we have the not-clean Karzai puppet government that has a lot of opposition even ignoring the foreign funded insurgents. Their 2010 election had intimidation by Taliban as well as massive fraud by candidates.

This (US) policy seems as dumb as any previous attempt to prop up a puppet government, from the Shah of Iran to Diem in Vietnam to Pinochet in Chile. Dumber than most since there is little hope this government could be stable or even friendly to our interests.

Might be better to allow/encourage Iran and Pakistan to carve up Afghanistan - that should keep them all busy and out of wider trouble for a while. Also it also means these two states, which have something to lose can be held accountable. Have to consider how would impact Pakistan internal politics.
 
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When I was a little kid, my Dad came home one day with a pony. He got it from the man who owned a store down the road, and was tired of feeding and caring for it after buying it for his kids, who were so damned mean (one grew up to be an outlaw biker, the other was worse and became a mailman) that all they wanted to do was torture it. When they grew tired of making its life miserable (and putting out one of its eyes in the process) they just abandoned it, leaving their dad with the task of feeding and caring for the thing. Until my father came along.
I thought it was great! I imagined riding around the little Mayberryesque town I lived in, Lone Ranger style, the envy of all my friends.
Just one problem: the pony was mean as Hell. It might have had something to do with the little sadists who poked out one of his eyes, I don't know. But one thing I did know, I was going to make him my friend then ride him all over town.
"Boy", my name for him (the ingenuity of that choice might give you some inkling why I am not writing this from one of NASA's computers) had other ideas.
Everyday for two weeks I brought hay and oats to feed him and some sort of goodie I'd seen people in movies give to their horses. Things like sugar cubes and apples.
Boy, when he bothered to come near me at all, would lick up the sugar cubes and then try to bite me. With apples he didn't need the oral dexterity, he simply tried to include some finger food with his fruit snack.
After two weeks, luckily with all my digits still attached, I gave up and let my younger brother give it a try. He quit after two days (which might give you a clue as to why he is relatively successful and I'm just a broken down grunt who made his living chasing morons over the countryside until I got too old to do the 50 meter wino hurdle).
My father eventually sold Boy to some other chump with a young son, or at least that's what he told me. For all I know he sold him to the glue factory. I was in the Army before my mother told me what really happened to "Porky" my pet pig (who unlike Boy, may have been a bit too trusting for his own good).

I suspect that Afghanistan is America's "Boy".

For over a thousand years the Afghans have cheerfully waged war on everyone who came into their country and prevented them from participating in their national pastime; waging war on each other.
I don't think we've mellowed them out anymore than the Russkies did.
My guess is that after we leave, they'll just go back to the time honored practice of inter-tribal mayhem and wife stealing, their other national pastime.

I hate to think that so many of my brothers in arms have died for something that has all the long term value of stock certificates in a Yugo factory, but my advice for the country is to leave "Boy" alone, and let Daddy Obama pawn them off on some other sucker.
I wonder how the Pak's are fixed for ponies.
 
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Cool story!

Yeah, I agree. It's hard to see how it's worth the effort anymore.
We got bin Laden, so it wasn't a total waste, but other than that . . .
 
Afghanistan is the world stage for poor strategies and lost opportunities.
It was a pestilent hell-hole long before we got there and it will remain a pestilent hell-hole long after we are gone.
 
As soon as the last chopper takes off, the opium fields will be back in full swing, funding their operations and the Taliban (or factions thereof) will be running the show....
 
There were figures published towards the end of last year which showed a desertion rate for the Afghan Army of around 25%. I am extremely dubious that they have the will or capability to maintain security once coalition forces leave.
 
I don't see a bright future, unless the US continues to reinvade/troop-surge for the next few decades.

One thing I find remarkable is that Karzai is still President. On googling it, he was interim for two years, and won two five-year terms. Is allowing a single person to serve that long really a great way to ensure a strong new government? Shouldn't the US have insisted that a new vote take place during their occupation where Karzai could not run again?

Just smacks of puppetry. And of course, add the corruption charges, his ne'er-do-well brother, etc. And that the new President in 2014 will not have 100,000 US troops to legitimize his rule by force.

Seems kind of sloppy nation-building imo.
 
I don't see a bright future, unless the US continues to reinvade/troop-surge for the next few decades.

One thing I find remarkable is that Karzai is still President. On googling it, he was interim for two years, and won two five-year terms. Is allowing a single person to serve that long really a great way to ensure a strong new government? Shouldn't the US have insisted that a new vote take place during their occupation where Karzai could not run again?
Just smacks of puppetry. And of course, add the corruption charges, his ne'er-do-well brother, etc. And that the new President in 2014 will not have 100,000 US troops to legitimize his rule by force.

Seems kind of sloppy nation-building imo.

But that would be imperialism, telling them how to arrange their affairs. Term limits are a good idea, but we can't tell a sovereign country they have to have them. I suppose if we went with the 6000 level that would allow us to hold Bagram that would allow for the possibility of reversing course later and having another surge of troops if necessary at some point in the future. Is it really worth it though? What would be the annual cost of keeping 6000 troops in Afghanistan I wonder, just to make sure that the Taliban can't take over outright.
 
But that would be imperialism, telling them how to arrange their affairs. Term limits are a good idea, but we can't tell a sovereign country they have to have them. I suppose if we went with the 6000 level that would allow us to hold Bagram that would allow for the possibility of reversing course later and having another surge of troops if necessary at some point in the future. Is it really worth it though? What would be the annual cost of keeping 6000 troops in Afghanistan I wonder, just to make sure that the Taliban can't take over outright.
This will probably draw a lot of heat, but I don't really care, so have at it.
I don't think we need to do anything else in Afghanistan except go home.
I do think if things don't work out, the Taliban take back over and the terrorist training camps start showing up on satellite imagery again, then we need to do what we should have done in the first place.
Go back in with both barrels cocked. Blow the hell out of anything that gets in our way. Destroy the infrastructure, knock down a lot of buildings, and publicly hang the leaders we can catch or the bodies of those we kill while we're trying to catch them.
Then, after telling the Afghan people that if they keep plotting trouble for the US, or keep letting knuckleheads like Al Qaeda use their country to plot their mischief, we'll be back. And we won't be in such a good mood next time.
Then we go home. No troops in place to restore order, no techies to get the lights back on, nada. We just go home and let them mull it over.

I know it sounds mean and nasty, and would no doubt upset the tummies of voters whose guiding philosophy is, "As long as it gives me a warm fuzzy and doesn't require me to do anything, it's OK by me".
But in the last 2,000 years, it's the only thing that has worked in Afghanistan.

Once upon a time, the Mongols came through, leveled anything that got in their way, and then went to India where they had more good stuff to steal than the Afghani's precious supplies of barren rocks and pestilence. The Afghans apparently thought highly enough of this that later they helped the Mongols in their efforts to cart away as much of India as they could load on the backs of their bandy legged little ponies, and if some of the loot fell into the pockets of the Afghans, so much the better.
Everybody was happy, except maybe the Indians.
I can't see why this wouldn't work today, only without the stealing stuff from India part.

Traditionally (since the formative years when the Prophet was putting together his little empire) Muslims have respected raw, unbridled force. When Muhammad went back to Mecca the first time, after he saw that the Meccans were well armed, numerous, and more than willing to engage in as much butchery as it took to get the job accomplished, Allah told him to go somewhere else to bestow his message of peace. Not one to disobey his deity, Mohammad and his followers went to a city where the Jews held sway, and finding them unprepared for massive slaughter and willing to compromise, he had a field day. A few false promises later, the Jews were dead, enslaved, or converted and Mohammad had lots of good stuff to restart his empire building plan again.

I can't help but feel that after a few rounds of," Hey, kids, let's all pretend we're back in the good ol' days when you read the Q'uran by candle light and the most advanced technology you can find is an oxcart!", they'll get the message and start telling their mischievous friends to go plot against the Americans somewhere else, then find another way to relieve the stress of murdering you neighbor after you steal his daughter.
Last time I checked there were still plenty of Indians left.
 
Obama hastens security transition in Afghanistan

WASHINGTON — Inching closer to ending an unpopular and costly war, President Barack Obama announced Friday that he is moving up the time line for Afghan forces to take the lead in securing their country.

Speaking at a joint news conference with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Obama said American troops will turn over that responsibility this spring, rather than in the middle of the year, the previous target. The modest adjustment is possible because of recent "devastating blows" against al-Qaida and success in uprooting Taliban strongholds, he said.

"Our path is clear, and we are moving forward," Obama said. "Every day, more Afghans are stepping up and taking responsibility for their own security. And as they do, our troops will come home. And next year, this long war will come to a responsible end."
 
When we leave, those who are willing to kill for what they want will return to power.
 

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