2020 Presidential Election

[Skeptic Ginger]

This thread is for the 2020 election, hopefully we can keep the lines clear between this and the general Trump thread. I know that will be difficult given how many Trump posts just went to AAH.

So the latest, oh dear: The Guardian: Michael Moore warns that Donald Trump is on course to repeat 2016 win

Sorry to have to provide the reality check again,” he said. ...

“The Biden campaign just announced he’ll be visiting a number of states – but not Michigan. Sound familiar?” Moore wrote, presumably indicating Hillary Clinton’s 2016 race when she made the error of avoiding some states that then swung to Trump.

“I’m warning you almost 10 weeks in advance. The enthusiasm level for the 60 million in Trump’s base is OFF THE CHARTS! For Joe, not so much,” he later added.

He continued to voters: “Don’t leave it to the Democrats to get rid of Trump. YOU have to get rid of Trump. WE have to wake up every day for the next 67 days and make sure each of us are going to get a hundred people out to vote. ACT NOW!”

I don't need this, sorry for sharing the distress but it can't be ignored.

 

[Safe-Keeper]

I hate to say this, but I don't regard Moore as a very reliable source anymore. I had a Michael Moore fanboy phase around the time Fahrenheit 9/11 came out, but then he drifted out of my life, so to speak, and then Manufacturing Dissent came out and killed what regard I had for him.
(/ad hominem)

As for Moore's actual claim, I don't know enough about campaign strategy to say anything one way or another.

 

[Stacyhs]

I think Biden is making a mistake if he doesn't go to each and every swing state. He needs them.

I also fear we will see a repeat of 2016. Frankly, I'm scared to death we will. I don't think this country can take 4 more years of his hateful rhetoric, incompetence, divisiveness, and disregard for the law. If the GOP retains control of the Senate, we're going to see even more enabling of Trump.

 

[Safe-Keeper]

The Economist currently has Biden on an 88% chance to win, down from 90% a few days ago, and a 98% chance of winning the popular vote.

FiveThirthyEight has Biden win in 69 out of 100 scenarios, after simulating the election 40 000 times.

FiveThirtyEight also shows Trump's approval rating growing, although this is AFAIK common as election approaches.


Election is still two months away, but I find this worrying.
Also agree with Stacyhs that the US most likely won't survive four more years of Trumpism.

 

[Stacyhs]

Clinton was supposed to be a shoo-in last election, too. How did that work out?

 

[Safe-Keeper]

Yes, Clinton had a projected 80% chance of winning and still lost. That's why I'm worried. You can roll a six with a die even though the chances are only 16%. Only a 69% chance of winning (538) is terrifying.

 

[johnny karate]

I’m also concerned about a Trump re-election, but I don’t think comparisons to the 2016 are apt. Trump was an unknown quantity then. Americans have had over three years to see what a spectacular failure he is as a president and a human being. Will that be enough? I don’t know. But Trump no longer has the momentum generated by being a political outsider that pushed him over the top in 2016.

 

[Trebuchet]

I’m also concerned about a Trump re-election, but I don’t think comparisons to the 2016 are apt. Trump was an unknown quantity then. Americans have had over three years to see what a spectacular failure he is as a president and a human being. Will that be enough? I don’t know. But Trump no longer has the momentum generated by being a political outsider that pushed him over the top in 2016.

Unfortunately, I disagree. It was extremely evident before the 2016 election what an utter loser Trump is. He opened his campaign with blatant racism. He lied repeatedly. The Access Hollywood tape came out. Megyn Kelly had blood coming from her wherever. And much of the country fully approved of it. And most of those folks approve even more now.

 

[rockysmith76]

I’m also concerned about a Trump re-election, but I don’t think comparisons to the 2016 are apt. Trump was an unknown quantity then. Americans have had over three years to see what a spectacular failure he is as a president and a human being. Will that be enough? I don’t know. But Trump no longer has the momentum generated by being a political outsider that pushed him over the top in 2016.

You're already sounding complacent, thats how the Hillary sect lost the last one, man up and do your duty or the next four years are on your failure to take responsibility.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Yahoo (BusinessInsider story): The DNC warned campaign staffers to 'swipe carefully' on dating apps because matches could be political opponents digging for dirt

Democratic Party officials sent an email to campaign staffers warning them to be wary of opponents digging for information on dating apps.

The email, first reported by CNN, said that opposition groups might seek out campaign staff on dating apps and attempt to orchestrate "sting" operations.

A Democratic official told Business Insider that the warning is "nothing new" and that campaign staff are frequently reminded to be vigilant online.

Several politically-motivated groups have attempted to pull off sting operations online to gather damaging information in the past, though most have backfired.

 

[KDLarsen]

Clinton was supposed to be a shoo-in last election, too. How did that work out?

Fine up until the point where Comey intervened twice in the closing weeks of the election.

Which is why I'm not taking any polls seriously until trump has made his move, either via Barr making some misrepresentation of the Durham investigation, or by some other lowhanded move.

As for the 'Clinton not visiting swing states cost her the election'-meme, the truth is a bit more complex than that: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/

 

[Roger Ramjets]

I hate to say this, but I don't regard Moore as a very reliable source anymore. I had a Michael Moore fanboy phase around the time Fahrenheit 9/11 came out, but then he drifted out of my life, so to speak, and then Manufacturing Dissent came out and killed what regard I had for him.

Why not?

As for Moore's actual claim, I don't know enough about campaign strategy to say anything one way or another.

He got it right last time, and there's no reason to believe he is wrong now. Don't be fooled by the news media - the Deplorables are still out there and even more determined to win this time. Moore is giving good advice - WE have to get rid of Trump. Just having a majority opinion is not enough. To beat the voter suppression and Trump Trash we need a supermajority of votes.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

I’m also concerned about a Trump re-election, but I don’t think comparisons to the 2016 are apt. Trump was an unknown quantity then. Americans have had over three years to see what a spectacular failure he is as a president and a human being.

And yet they still support him! They are the Deplorables, and they love what Trump is giving them.

Trump no longer has the momentum generated by being a political outsider that pushed him over the top in 2016.

That's right. He is now a known quantity who has proved his worth to the Deplorables. So they will use every dirty trick in the book - and then some - to keep him there.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Paranoid Rand Paul

Reuters via Yahoo: Republican senator, swarmed by protesters after Trump speech, calls for FBI probe

Paul told Fox News Channel he believes the group chanting his name and pushing against his impromptu police escort was paid to incite a riot. He did not say who he believes financially backed them or offer any evidence for his contention.

"I believe there are going to be people who were involved with the attack on us that actually were paid to come here and are not from Washington, D.C., and are sort of paid to be anarchists," Paul said. "The FBI needs to investigate but the only way you can do it is you have to arrest people."

I don't think one needs to pay anyone to protest Trump and his supporters.

This is akin to Trump claiming people were bussed into New Hampshire (or whatever NE State) to vote.

Paul didn't say who supposedly paid the protesters, George Soros is blamed in 3... 2...1.

 

[Meadmaker]

I think if the election were held today, Biden would win easily.

Unfortunately, the election won't be held today.

My opinion is that if Covid 19 had not come along, Trump would win easily. Covid 19 exposed the worst of Trump and his administration, and did so in a way that affected all of us personally. That makes it a race, but it doesn't make it a given that Trump will lose.

 

[varwoche]

Hmm. According to AP yesterday:

After spending a pandemic spring and summer tethered almost entirely to his Delaware home, Joe Biden plans to take his presidential campaign to battleground states after Labor Day in his bid to unseat President Donald Trump. No itinerary is set, according to the Democratic nominee’s campaign

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

And yet they still support him! They are the Deplorables, and they love what Trump is giving them.

That's right. He is now a known quantity who has proved his worth to the Deplorables. So they will use every dirty trick in the book - and then some - to keep him there.

I watch a lot of CSPAN and the other day they were interviewing some Republican Trump supporter who looked like he should otherwise be intelligent. He repeated all the Trump lies, claiming Trump has done everything he said he would.

I think Biden (or the Lincoln Project) needs an add they play over and over to get through to these confirmation biased people:

Mexico did not pay for any wall and only about 30 feet of new wall was installed.

He did not have the cheaper, better medical coverage plan that he promised.

He certainly didn't drain the swamp, he filled it full of feces (could be worded differently).

List all the people in his campaign that went to jail (might need to leave this out because no doubt it will sidetrack people into the BS that Trump was spied on and targeted).

If you believe he works hard and works on the golf course, one needs to call BS on that. Easy to point out how little he even reads and phone calls to Hannity are not 'work'.

Show the economic growth rate under Obama compared to Trump. That one needs special emphasis!

There are no new coal jobs.

And so on and so on.

 

[uke2se]

You guys who are worried, you should focus your energy and do whatever you can to work for a Biden win. We're all worried about a Trump win, but you guys in the States are in a position to do something. The rest of us can only watch in terror as your country teeters on the precipice.

Here's a starting point: https://votesaveamerica.com/save-america/

 

[Stacyhs]

I had every confidence that the American people would see Trump for what he is back in 2016: a despicable con man. Sure, there were a lot of idiots who would vote for him but not enough for him to win...or so I thought. After the Access Hollywood tape came out, I was sure of it. After all, who could possibly vote for someone like that? Boy, was I ever wrong. The fact his approval rating has basically stayed pretty much consistent with a few ups and downs just goes to prove the point that Teflon Don has given his supporters exactly what they wanted in 2016 and still want. He has every chance of winning again thanks to our unfair Electoral College which could well give us, once again, an unfit president elected by a minority of the country.

 

[JoeMorgue]

It all comes down to how much of Trump's base still hold onto the belief that he either is or going to "make things better" and how much of Trump's base are simply enjoying the flames. How deep the vein of self destructive nihilism goes is the key to all of this.

I still stand behind the over-arching theme that I've had a base trolling/spite mentality is a factor in support for Donald J. Trump in a way that has never been true of any other President.

And this trolling/spite mentality breaks all conventional political rules. None of our traditional political wisdom can really properly account for "I'm going to make things worse just to get back at the other side." Questions of "Are you better off" or "Do you think X is better or worse" simply don't work that well. Someone who said "I think Bob Dole will make things worse for the country than Bill Clinton" was voicing support for Bill Clinton. At least some, measurable, meaningful percent of people who go "I think Donald Trump will make things worse for the country than Joe Biden" are voicing support for Donald Trump, not Joe Biden.

I'm hoping but I'm not hopeful. I like to think after the spanking they got in 2016 Pollsters are being more cautious so assuming that is true Biden is polling much better than Trump. But "LOL Librul Tears" wasn't part of the Reagan, Bush, Dole, Romney, or McCain platforms the way it is such a core part of the Trump platform. The core problem of them wanting a narrative where we get hope again just to have it yanked away is a factor in this election and I'm terrified to what degree the current narrative is following that. That's why hope almost feels like a betrayal, like I'm jinxing it or something. For them to really, really win the way they want to win we first have to think we will win again. Sure if Trump wins again that will make them happy. Another "Oh man we are so going to win this*" followed by a loss so they can make another Youtube montage of "LOL lookit the libruls breaking down because Trump won!" videos? Well that would just be perfection.

Put a gun to my head and demand odds, 60/40 Biden/Trump assuming nothing else happens in the next... what 80 days or so and just saying that makes me feel like I just read the Latin inscription in the dusty old leather bound book I found in the cellar of the creepy abandoned house in a horror movie. But I have so much less confidence making such a prediction than I would have in the past.

* I know the fact that the raw math did not give Hillary a "sure thing" have already been discussed and I know how statistics work and that 2016 didn't "break" them but for me the revisionism, for I must call it that, around Trump's chances in 2016 were never about the raw numbers but general cultural and social "feel."