2020 Congressional Election

JoeMorgue

Self Employed , Remittance Man
JoeMorgue
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Nov 15, 2009
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General purpose thread for news, discussion, debate, predictions, questions etc.
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Background info:

The United States Congress is the head of the Legislative Branch. It consists of two houses:

- The Senate. 100 seats. Each state, regardless of population, gets to elect two Senators each.

- The House of Representatives. 435 seats. States get a number of Representatives ranging from 1 to 53 depending on population.

//These number do not account for non-voting members elected by American territories such as Puerto Rico//

All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 35 out of 100 seats in the United States Senate are up for grabs in November.

Currently the Democrats hold a majority in the House (232 to the Republicans 198, with one Libertarian and 4 vacant) while the Republicans hold a majority in the Senate (53 to the Democrats 45, with 2 Independents who generally caucus and vote with the Democrats giving them a de-facto 47)

Current political polling suggests a tight race for the Senate, with a 50-50 split not being one of the less likely outcomes, with the Democrats retaining a majority in the house.

Either party achieving a super-majority in either of the Houses looks extremely unlikely.
 
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Due to a combination of industrial scale voter suppression, gerrymandering and wholesale discounting of postal votes, President Trump will be re-elected, the GOP will increase their majority in the senate and will regain control of the house with a comfortable majority.
 
The Don said:
Due to a combination of industrial scale voter suppression, gerrymandering and wholesale discounting of postal votes, President Trump will be re-elected, the GOP will increase their majority in the senate and will regain control of the house with a comfortable majority.
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The lesson with gerrymandering is that it doesn't work for very long. The Democrats took the House by winning those gerrymandered districts. Not all states have voter suppression issues. Dems control the voting mechanisms in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Gerrymandering doesn't matter at all in the Senate or presidential races. And really, no one is talking about the Republicans taking back the House. Trump would need to be both leading and by a wide margin for that to happen.
 
The Don said:
Due to a combination of industrial scale voter suppression, gerrymandering and wholesale discounting of postal votes, President Trump will be re-elected, the GOP will increase their majority in the senate and will regain control of the house with a comfortable majority.
Click to expand...
Trump only barely won in 2016, by a total of only, what was it, 14 000 or 40 000 votes across several states he needed to win? Of course more of the votes this year will be by mail, and Trump has had four years in which to sabotage things, but this election-rigging can only get him so far.
 
The Don said:
Due to a combination of industrial scale voter suppression, gerrymandering and wholesale discounting of postal votes, President Trump will be re-elected, the GOP will increase their majority in the senate and will regain control of the house with a comfortable majority.
Click to expand...

With this grim forecast as a fiducial, I'm pretty sure there'll be *something* for liberals to cheer. Jeez, if it turned out that bad, there'd be insufficient crisis councillors in the nation.
 
This was posted elsewhere, but it should be noted that Nancy Pelosi and other DP heavyweights endorsed Joe Kennedy III in a primary challenge for progressive Ed Markey's incumbent Senate seat. For all the talk of party unity and the need to defeat Trump, money and political attention was squandered in order to try to challenge a relatively progressive Democratic Senator with a centrist candidate.

Kennedy lost. I guess that last name doesn't have the same cache it used to. Back to Hyannis Joe.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
This was posted elsewhere, but it should be noted that Nancy Pelosi and other DP heavyweights endorsed Joe Kennedy III in a primary challenge for progressive Ed Markey's incumbent Senate seat. For all the talk of party unity and the need to defeat Trump, money and political attention was squandered in order to try to challenge a relatively progressive Democratic Senator with a centrist candidate.

Kennedy lost. I guess that last name doesn't have the same cache it used to. Back to Hyannis Joe.
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Isn't this the same thing they did with Biden vs Bernie/Warren/et al?
Except Biden won out for that one.
But I suppose that is national and perhaps things that are national are more moderate than individual local races.
 
The Don said:
Due to a combination of industrial scale voter suppression, gerrymandering and wholesale discounting of postal votes, President Trump will be re-elected, the GOP will increase their majority in the senate and will regain control of the house with a comfortable majority.
Click to expand...
I would bet everything I own against this, even knowing your track record.

This is so silly that I'm demoting you from prescient to broken clock. :p
 
Firestone said:
Lindsey Graham tweets:

"It’s been 72 hours since I released 11 years of state and federal tax returns and challenged @HarrisonJaime to do the same. Crickets. What is he hiding?"

https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/1304873445637922818?s=19
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Ah yes: The eleven years of Lindsey Graham's tax returns that we've all been so urgently awaiting, ever since he launched his political career. 28 years ago. Hopefully Harrison Jaime DGAF about Graham's twitter call-outs.
 
Not that I care about the Trumptrash at the rally in Nevada tonight. However, we know the virus passes from animals to people and the attendees could pass the virus to real people who have value.
 
Craig4 said:
Not that I care about the Trumptrash at the rally in Nevada tonight. However, we know the virus passes from animals to people and the attendees could pass the virus to real people who have value.
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Not to mention, to real animals that have value!
 
varwoche said:
I would bet everything I own against this, even knowing your track record.

This is so silly that I'm demoting you from prescient to broken clock. :p
Click to expand...

....I really, really hope you are right.

I really, really fear you are not. :(
 
Some recent polling numbers for the U.S. senate races:

(Via: Politico)

- Susan "He's learned his Lesson" Collins is WAY down in the Maine senate race. (She is behind Sarah Gideon by 54-42.) I thought the Democrats had a good shot at taking this seat, but a margin like that is more than I was expecting. Hopefully Collins has learned her lesson.

- Lady Lindsey is currently tied with his opponent (Harrison) in South Carolina. (Strangely enough, Harrison actually rates better who is seen as more favorable. Sadly with voter suppression, I don't have much hope of the Democrats winning S.C.

- Sadly, Moscow Mitch is leading in Kentucky. But being the backwards state that it is, its not surprising that Kentucky is sticking with the turtle. (I have sometimes wondered if it would be more fitting to see Moscow Mitch lose, or see him win but have the GOP lose the senate so he loses his power.)
 
Is this just becoming some weird affect now?

Raise your hand if anyone's tax return ever caused you to vote or not vote for them.
 
538's Senate forecast is live.

The gist: Democrats *probably* need 4 or 5 pickups, depending on the presidency, since Doug Jones is an underdog in AL-Sen. A lot of these races are against incumbents in red states. Still, Democrats have so many opportunities (~12!) that they're slight favorites to do it.
(Nate Silver on Twitter)
 
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