statistics

It's no wonder people don't trust statistics. It seems far too many are statistically innumerate. Measuring Risk Literacy: The Berlin Numeracy Test http://journal.sjdm.org/11/11808/jdm11808.pdf The Berlin Numeracy Test was found to be the strongest predictor of comprehension of everyday risks...

I am following a Facebook page and monitor the development of the number of "Likes" it has. For a while now, I have written down the number of likes every day around the time of my second coffee in the morning (so sample frequency wasn't exactly constant). I found that the number increases by...

I have been trying and failing to figure this out: I have a pill bottle with 50 pills. I take half a pill a day. Each day, I shake the bottle. If I get a half-pill, I take it. If I get a whole pill, I cut it in half, take one half and put the other half back in the bottle. Assume no...

Hi all - I'm a new member of the forum - I'm looking for statistics help. A friend of mine is convinced he can dowse water and wants to test his ability. I agreed to help him and I want to do a good job. I'm thinking of having 6 identical new buckets, six numbered spots in a row or circle...

I've just posted this at SBM, but I suspect the "hard science" members of JREF might be better placed to answer my question. I wonder whether the question should be phrased like this: there is a prior probability that a medication works, do uncontrolled anecdotal accounts of positive benefit...

Statisticians can prove almost anything, a new study finds. However, when you read the article, a more appropriate title would be And the media keep gobbling and garbling scientific (and "scientific") studies. PhD Comics put it best:

So I just graded a test in my class. I got a weird distribution as shown in the attached picture. The grades in question are: 56% 55% 52% 52% 51% 51% 51% 48% 47% 45% 35% 13% 13% 9% I feel like the extreme bunching is trying to tell me something, but I don't know what. It was a 15-question...

I recently read a Popular Mechanics article, "How The Blowout Happened" (October 2010), which described the events culminating in the destruction of BP's Deepwater Horizon oil rig. It also listed this disaster amongst others (Chernobyl, Challenger, Three Mile Island) as a Black Swan event. Black...

Hello ya'll. I've recently taken my first steps into the world of scientific research, and found out that statistics are hard. I'm looking for materials at my local library, of course, but I thought I might as well ask for assitance here. What I'm looking for is books or online materials on...

Article on Ars: Full article HERE.

I need guidance/help regarding some comparisons. Any advice much appreciated. I have a small group of 9 patients with an uncommon disease X. In 8 of them it seemed to be associated/triggered by a problem (Y) but in one case it seemed to be linked with a different problem (Z). Now Y happens...

I have performance data that I must judge and I need some help. It's not difficult stats but I need to get it right so could do with some guidance on the optimal analysis. The data are paired values. As a cohort, the group must achieve a rise in mean value of 13.2 between the two time points...

I have been trying to make some sense of the financial crisis we all seem to be caught up in, but I have been struck by what seems to be a contrast between the headlines telling us we have struck an iceberg and are sinking and what seem to be the data underpinning those headlines. Typical...

I never did statistics past A Level, which has worked fine so far. However, I now find myself scratching my little head. Suppose I have a hypothesis that a coin is fair. I toss it a thousand times, and 990 times it comes down heads. I can work out the probabilty of that, and say: now, this...

I'm currently reading one of the (many) books devoted to Edward Deming's philosophy of quality control. This book is quite unabashedly and unreservedly for it, and like many such books unquestioningly attributes Japan's post-war industrial strength in large part to Deming's work. What say ye...

The BBC ran an article about Hugo Chavez today, titled "Venezuela head outlines changes". The article goes on to say: "President Chavez told the [Venezuelan National] Assembly his proposals only affected 10% of the constitution." (Emphasis mine.) I'm sorry to say that I and my whole family...

Which published papers, books etc have you read that helped formulate your beliefs? The reason I ask, is that I don't have the benefit of a university education and have been wandering around the net choosing material from various sources. There's a lot of conflicting information out there. I...

Which published papers, books etc have you read that helped formulate your beliefs? The reason I ask, is that I don't have the benefit of a university education and have been wandering around the net choosing material from various sources. There's a lot of conflicting information out there. I...

Ok, stats experts and users of statistical tests, how many times have you seen p<alpha or p<.05, p<.01 and p<.001 enumerated into "significant", "highly significant" and "extremely significant"? According to this paper, they're incorrect and are attempts to fuse two different and incompatible...

I have a couple questions about basic statistics that I want to know I have the right answer on in case I don't, because it pertains to a paranormal claim. If five random numbers are generated each between 0-9, what is the probability of two out of those five numbers being for example '8'? I'm...

I was a littlebit bored yesterday... :blush: ___________________________________________________ LCF Members (16.03.2007) Members (ALL) : 2,302 Members = 0 Posts -1286 Members = 1 Post -394 Members = 2 Posts -165 Members = 5 - 20 Posts -244 Members = 20 - 100 Posts -105...

Since the news of PEAR shutting down came out, I've been reading over some of the news reports and quotes given by the key players. One thing that struck me was their pure dogmatic belief that they have proof beyond a shadow of a doubt. For example, in their test with a 50/50 outcome, they...

Since the news of PEAR shutting down came out, I've been reading over some of the news reports and quotes given by the key players. One thing that struck me was their pure dogmatic belief that they have proof beyond a shadow of a doubt. For example, in their test with a 50/50 outcome, they...

I posted this on SLC, but I figured you more mathematically oriented types here would find it amusing. If anyone wants to calculate the correct probability, I will add it to the post. http://screwloosechange.blogspot.com/2007/02/troofer-math.html I am constantly amused with the truther misuse...

I have a friend who is very into gerentology. They were informing, breathlessly of how much longer people would be expected to live, and how much of a difference that will cause to society because as a result of the baby boomers, an unprecedented percent of the population will be old. A key...

I have been trying this for a while--how do you get an X-bar symbol for a mean? I looked in symbols, but nothing. :( Is there a particular set I should check? Short of wasting a whole line doing this, anyway: _ X Thanks! Bug

There doesn't seem to be a recent thread about this. The Global Consciousness Project's overall summary of results, August 1998 to March 2005, to be found on this page http://noosphere.princeton.edu/ , shows a probability of 1.869x10^-6. Can someone illustrate that this an example of...

Here's something I don't get. When parapsychologists conduct experiments on ESP or remote viewing, their positive results are always just slightly better than you'd get by guessing, but better enough that they claim statistical significance. This usually leads to a lot of debate about...

The BBC have put this page up - just thought I'd bring it to Members' attention: How 9/11 changed America: In statistics

Federal disaster spending on certain selected natural and man-made disasters: Hurricane Andrew - $8.1 billion L.A. Earthquake - $12.5 billion 2004 Hurricanes - $13.5 billion September 11 Attacks - $22.0 billion Hurricanes Katrina/Rita - $122.5 billion(Source - The Wall Street Journal, citing...