probability puzzles

It's no wonder people don't trust statistics. It seems far too many are statistically innumerate. Measuring Risk Literacy: The Berlin Numeracy Test http://journal.sjdm.org/11/11808/jdm11808.pdf The Berlin Numeracy Test was found to be the strongest predictor of comprehension of everyday risks...

So... in South Africa yesterday, the Powerball results were interesting, and when they are this interesting, a lot of people begin to question whether there are some shenanigans going on. The powerball here is structured as follows: Select 5 balls from a pool of 45 Select 1 powerball from a...

Long story short Lotto power ball built over several weeks to 38 mill They said the chances of winning were 36 mill to one Two people got it. Are the chances of a person getting the right numbers 36m-1 at the same time as another person gets them 36m-1, higher than 36m-1, or still just...

So I've been going back and forth with a friend of a friend online regarding the Monte Hall Problem. It has devolved into disagreements about probabilities and I'm having a hard time. He has gone into 'actual' and 'perceived' odds. My latest example is 'When you dive by my house, I'm either...

So, lots of math debate in some hockey circles arising from how the NHL's draft lottery was conducted. (feel free to skim this part the real question is later) The lottery works like this: there are 14 balls, 4 of which are drawn to give a 4 number combination. There are 1001 possible...

I'm too lazy to figure this out myself, but it goes like this. When I'm logging into an on-line poker game -Texas Holdem- , they throw little ' factoids ' onto the screen while it's loading. One I see a lot is " The chance of being dealt pocket Aces is 220 to 1.. " Correct number or not...

For anyone unaware of the rules: You have 2 tries to get 100 total. If you get 100 on the first spin you stop. The wheel has slots in increments of 5 from 5 to 100. (So 20 slots.) (I don't think it matters but here is the sequence: 5¢, $1.00, 15¢, 80¢, 35¢, 60¢, 20¢, 40¢, 75¢, 55¢, 95¢...

Hi all - I'm a new member of the forum - I'm looking for statistics help. A friend of mine is convinced he can dowse water and wants to test his ability. I agreed to help him and I want to do a good job. I'm thinking of having 6 identical new buckets, six numbered spots in a row or circle...

Hi all, I have a math question. I am grading exams for my upper division history class and a student came to me concerned because they thought the two students in front of them were cheating. The first student would tap on something on their test. Student 2 would nod and write something down...

Guys, I'd love some help with this math problem that's been bouncing around in my head for a while. I've posted something similar to this before, and I never really got an answer that I could understand and made sense. It's something that's been bothering me for years, and it's so...

Not knowing the answer to this has bugged me for ages... If an event is hypothesized to have probability x, how many observations of the event not happening does it require to invalidate the hypothesis, or of being confident that 'x' is wrong? e.g. I hypothesize that there is a 1 in 100 of an...

This is probably trivial for anyone who really know how to calculate probabilities. If you have a wheel like the one on "Wheel of Fortune" that has 12 segments, and only one of them is yellow, then the probability of hitting yellow with one spin of the wheel is one in twelve. What is the...

I was reading a story today (sorry no link handy but google is your friend) about Warren Buffett/Quicken Loans offer of 1 billion $ to anyone who submits a perfect NCAA bracket for this year's tourney. The story insisted the odds were one in a billion. That seems ridiculous to me, but I'm not...

I'm curious about how many people pick the correct answer to the Monty Hall problem when they first hear about it, so only answer the poll if you hadn't heard about the Monty Hall problem until now (and no looking up the answer before you respond). There are a couple of threads about this...

....to anyone who can fill out a perfect March Madness bracket. But before you get your hopes up, there's a quintillion possible permutations. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101351399 Steve S

In case you haven’t heard of the “Monty Hall” game it goes like this . . . You attempt to make the correct choice from three random options (only one is correct). After you make your choice one of the remaining choices is revealed as being incorrect. You are then asked if you want to retain...

OK, so we've all seen the websites that say getting this number + that number = good or bad. This question is a bit different, and I was wondering if it would be a statistical curiosity. It is at least for me. Keep in mind this actually happened here at work. Funny stuff: User A buys 2...

For years, I've been telling people that it's as likely for you to get the above numbers as something like 35,32,18,16, 28, 21. People can't seem to believe it. Is this actually the case, or am I making a fool of myself?

Not really. But I read in this article that NASA are perfectly happy to let 550kg of satellite fall randomly to the earth. They calculate odds of hitting someone at 3200 to 1. This seems a little too probable to me. For some reason it reminded me of the perils of celebratory gunfire. What...

I've just taken the Bang goes the Theory Big Risk Test. All answers were multiple choice. One of the questions was as follows: I picked the answer nearest to the one I calculated from those available (95%, 83%, 17% and 5%, IIRC): The value I calculated was... Have I missed something or...

I apologize if this has been asked before but my search didn't find what I was looking for. I'm sure many already know what this is, but I'll restate: The answer is that you should switch as it doubles your odds of winning the car from 1/3 to 2/3. Here is my problem and I follow up with the...

Okay, making as much fun of my lack of math comprehension as you choose, can anyone explain the probability of the birthday paradox in terms that someone who's math-challenged can understand. Forget Wiki. I have a hangover and it's far too thick(or I am).

There are a group of people that know a secret. The probability that any one person leaks the secret is 0.03. a) If there are 2 people in the group, what is probability that someone leaks the secret? What if there are 5 people in the group? b) How many people in the group do you need to...

Perhaps this very example has been done before on this forum, but I haven't discovered it ... so let me give it a try. I actually saw this play out as described, which is why it started me thinking if the contestant actually went with the best course of action. It was on the game show Who Wants...

I have been thinking about this one for a while now: On Deal or No Deal, if a contestant gets down to two cases and the top prize is still on the board, what is the probability that the case he or she holds contains the top prize? My first thought was to relate this to the Monty Hall puzzle...

Me and my friend were playing poker and we were both delt a pair of aces - this meant we were likely tie. My friend (who is not very skeptical) said he thought one of us would get a flush (5 cards of the same suit) and thus not tie. As it happened he was right - 4 clubs came on the table and he...

Odd and slightly silly question, but I'm not sure where to start with this. What is the probability of any given person randomly becoming "rich" - maybe arbitrarily getting $2 million in the US or other western countries, just out of the blue, by some means other than buying a lottery ticket...

Canada's lottery organizations are currently running a national on-line lottery game that is different from any others. It's called Millionaire Life, the grand prize is $1 million per year for 25 years. Details here. It is going to be based on one grand-prize winning number out of all tickets...

A friend of mine on a mailing list came across this math question. I gave him an answer, but I want to see if you all agree with me before I post it. He was at a Chinese restaurant with his wife and two friends. At the end of the meal they all got fortune cookies, the kind with lottery...

Take a look at the following story: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=412386&in_page_id=1770 In an attempt to win the National Lottery, a syndicate of University professors and students devised a system that allowed them to 'rely less on chance'...