election predictions

Interesting bit of news: http://edition.cnn.com/2011/12/22/opinion/gergen-obama-resurgence/index.html Why is this payroll tax saga proving to be a vote winner for Obama, and how does he build on that for 2012?

Latest poll, today, Zogby. http://img.ibtimes.com/www/articles/20111007/227265_herman-cain-leads-mitt-romney-zogby-poll-republican-presidential-race.htm "Herman Cain holds an astounding 20-point lead over Mitt Romney in a poll of Republican primary voters released Thursday," "The Zogby Poll...

Of Ponzi Schemes and Jobs: Obama Now Leads Rick Perry By 11 Points According to a new PPP survey, Rick Perry’s Social Security tough talk has hurt him, but Obama’s focus on jobs has given him an 11 point lead, 52%-41% over Perry. According to PPP, only 20% of those surveyed agree with Perry on...

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/06/18/6888893-paul-wins-rlc-straw-poll-romney-fades-to-fifth Paul for Prez Packs a Poll. It worked so well in 2008, why not try again? And in other news Generallisimo Franco is still dead. Who the heck is McCotter?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/148076/2012-Voter-Preferences-Obama-Republican-Remain-Close.aspx "PRINCETON, NJ -- Forty-four percent of registered voters say they are more likely to vote for "the Republican Party's candidate" and 39% for Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election, according to...

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2010/11/obama-romney-palin.html "A whopping 60% now disapprove of his job, up from 51% disapproval Sept. 20. Obama now trails in hypothetical 2012 matchups against Republicans Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and the next Bush, Jeb. And, oh, my! Lookee...

Okay, there's been plenty of time for the news about the RNC to cycle through, and... Looks like there's still no real "bump" for McCain in the prediction markets. In all the markets, save one, there has been little to no movement from the Obama/McCain 60/40 split which has been sustaining...

In this thread, Brainster and myself noted that the Zogby poll was wildly off base in California, predicting wide-margin victories for both Obama and Romney. The opposite happened, as both lost by wide margins. I wonder which pollsters have generally been fairly accurate so far and which...