Ed Self-Driving Cars: Pros, Cons, and Predictions

[Dabop]

Yeah, I'm talking about places where it's 14 hours drive to the next town. And yes, there are people out there.

Yes...
And if ALL of them bought a brand new car- I could have hauled them all on the old mobile parking lot I drove....

The number involved wouldn't even keep a single car lot open lol

(and most of them have zero interest in owning ANYTHING new- EV or ICE- in rural areas like that- the old systems ruled- kettering ign with points, or diesel with an inline pump....)

The stuff you can fix with a screwdriver and a shifter.... and a length of fencing wire...
(ie zero new vehicles fit the bill)

 

[Darat]

Looking back at this thread I am astonished that we do not have self driving cars outside of a few well defined areas. If you had asked me ten years ago I would have said we would have fully autonomous vehicles by now, I hope that we are not in the fusion hell of always "ten years away".

 

[Darat]

Yes...
And if ALL of them bought a brand new car- I could have hauled them all on the old mobile parking lot I drove....

The number involved wouldn't even keep a single car lot open lol

(and most of them have zero interest in owning ANYTHING new- EV or ICE- in rural areas like that- the old systems ruled- kettering ign with points, or diesel with an inline pump....)

The stuff you can fix with a screwdriver and a shifter.... and a length of fencing wire...
(ie zero new vehicles fit the bill)

And why couldn't an EV do what ICE vehicles that have to go far between petrol refills do i.e. take additional fuel with them, in the case of EV tow a big battery pack with them? Sure it may not be as efficient as carrying additional petrol but since we are talking about very exceptional journeys does that matter?

ETA: And that is with today's battery technology, who knows perhaps in "ten years" time we may have batteries that can power vehicles for a much better weight v range ratio.

ETA1: It would surely be possible to have recharge stations that are locally powered by wind and/or solar if we are talking about established routes, a few batteries to store the power locally and hey presto refill your electric vehicle. In fact this would an advantage for EVs against ICE; with ICE such stations would have to be regularly refilled by someone going to the location and filling a tank with fuel, whereas the EV station once setup needs no topping up.

 

[EHocking]

And why couldn't an EV do what ICE vehicles that have to go far between petrol refills do i.e. take additional fuel with them, in the case of EV tow a big battery pack with them? Sure it may not be as efficient as carrying additional petrol but since we are talking about very exceptional journeys does that matter?

In Australia, the longest distance between petrol stations is about 370km. Which is about 1/2 a tank in my SUV (in australia it is classed as a small car).
Charging stations aren't as plentiful, but you can circumnavigate Oz in an EV, with some minor inconveniences such as slow recharge times and limiting your speed to get to a charge station that might by +/-400km away.

Outback Australia is a challenge, even in an ICE vehicle you need to plan your trip, but a number of state governments (esp WA) are expanding the EV networks.
Of course, on an extended drive, you will probably be overnighting somewhere where you can just plug the car in to charge.
So, while a challeng, not unpossible even now.

ETA: And that is with today's battery technology, who knows perhaps in "ten years" time we may have batteries that can power vehicles for a much better weight v range ratio.

ETA1: It would surely be possible to have recharge stations that are locally powered by wind and/or solar if we are talking about established routes, a few batteries to store the power locally and hey presto refill your electric vehicle. In fact this would an advantage for EVs against ICE; with ICE such stations would have to be regularly refilled by someone going to the location and filling a tank with fuel, whereas the EV station once setup needs no topping up.

Lots of sun and wind in the outback, so battery farms may be a solution. I haven't delved into delivery systems, just quickly Googled

 

[Dabop]

And why couldn't an EV do what ICE vehicles that have to go far between petrol refills do i.e. take additional fuel with them, in the case of EV tow a big battery pack with them? Sure it may not be as efficient as carrying additional petrol but since we are talking about very exceptional journeys does that matter?

ETA: And that is with today's battery technology, who knows perhaps in "ten years" time we may have batteries that can power vehicles for a much better weight v range ratio.

ETA1: It would surely be possible to have recharge stations that are locally powered by wind and/or solar if we are talking about established routes, a few batteries to store the power locally and hey presto refill your electric vehicle. In fact this would an advantage for EVs against ICE; with ICE such stations would have to be regularly refilled by someone going to the location and filling a tank with fuel, whereas the EV station once setup needs no topping up.

LOL- well ahead of you there...
Remote EV recharging stations in Australia already are solar powered, have been for a while....

Already, even the shortest ranged EVs like the Leaf can be driven east to west and north to south across Australia without needing to worry about 'running out of fuel' before finding a charger.... Some grey nomads have already done the 'Big Lap' in EVs towing poptop caravans lol (for the non Aussies- a 'grey nomad' is a retiree/retired couple who rent/sell the family home, and drive around Australia usually in a 4wd towing a caravan...)


The only places you cant find a charger, well you need a 4wd to get there in the first place.... (and in that case, a Shark or similar would be the ideal vehicle- up to 100km off the battery pack recharged from solar, and diesel or petrol for those 'long range' trips....

'Battery trailers' have also been around for years as well- some homebrews, some commercial products...

Either as part of a larger trailer (like a caravan) or just as a 'range extender'

 

[Darat]

LOL- well ahead of you there...
...snip...

I'm going to sue them for pinching my idea via a time machine!

 

[Dabop]

I'm going to sue them for pinching my idea via a time machine!

Ironically the French were the first to have an operational 'range extender' trailer rental system in place back before covid- as many of the EU EV's at the time were small 'city cars' with very limited range- so if you wanted to go more than about 100km, you needed a petrol car- or a range extender trailer...

You could literally hire them from a servo. couple up and drive to another country or whatever, and return it after your trip- so no need to buy it yourself...

The company closed down about 2023- as the newer EVs ranges made it not really required anymore for the majority of EVs on the roads.... between longer ranges on the EVs and more chargers, not really a viable business model anymore....


https://www.drive.com.au/news/french-startup-releases-a-towable-range-extender-for-your-ev/

 

[Rolfe]

If chance hadn't caused the ICE to be preferentially developed during the 20th century, nobody would even be talking about the things now. We'd be sitting here with a fully-developed EV economy and nobody would even be thinking "there are applications electric cars can't cope with, we need to develop a whole new (wildly inefficient, polluting) propulsion system to do these jobs."

Of course it's not going to happen overnight, but the writing is on the wall for the ICE. People will go on using them for a decade or two more, I can't predict exactly how long, but pouring more money into further marginal refinement of a dying technology is bonkers.

 

[Dabop]

Its already (in most places) becoming a major part of the transport infrastructure- sure there will likely be some ICE edge cases around for decades to come, but as the majority of new vehicles on the road- in many places that boat has either already sailed, or the EVs are snapping at the ICErs heals....

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Ironically the French were the first to have an operational 'range extender' trailer rental system in place back before covid- as many of the EU EV's at the time were small 'city cars' with very limited range- so if you wanted to go more than about 100km, you needed a petrol car- or a range extender trailer...

You could literally hire them from a servo. couple up and drive to another country or whatever, and return it after your trip- so no need to buy it yourself...

The company closed down about 2023- as the newer EVs ranges made it not really required anymore for the majority of EVs on the roads.... between longer ranges on the EVs and more chargers, not really a viable business model anymore....
View attachment 64303
View attachment 64304
https://www.drive.com.au/news/french-startup-releases-a-towable-range-extender-for-your-ev/

so what's the TNT yield on one of these babies ?

 

[Klimax]

If chance hadn't caused the ICE to be preferentially developed during the 20th century, nobody would even be talking about the things now. We'd be sitting here with a fully-developed EV economy and nobody would even be thinking "there are applications electric cars can't cope with, we need to develop a whole new (wildly inefficient, polluting) propulsion system to do these jobs."

Of course it's not going to happen overnight, but the writing is on the wall for the ICE. People will go on using them for a decade or two more, I can't predict exactly how long, but pouring more money into further marginal refinement of a dying technology is bonkers.

We wouldn't. Battery tech was simply not there for way too long. Energy density of oil is damn high. You can stop that wishful thinking about nonexistent road not taken. It never existed. (You'd have more luck with electrical trains and city mass transport)

As for longevity, given current world, make it four or five decades. Assuming known lithium deposits are even sufficient and eventually better replacement is found. (Recycling gets you only so far)

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

And through what would that cable pass? Who's putting it there? Where are they sleeping and what are they drinking?

And on what surface would the tankers of fuel for ICE-powered vehicles pass? Who's putting it there? Where are they sleeping and what are they drinking?

Digging a trench and laying a cable is a LOT easier than digging out soil, filling with hardcore and putting tarmac on top of it.

We lay cables between continents.

 

[arthwollipot]

Cables are lossy. There is attenuation over distance. And in Australia, road trains drive on dirt, as well as on tarmac.

 

[Dabop]

Cables are lossy. There is attenuation over distance. And in Australia, road trains drive on dirt, as well as on tarmac.

Many roadtrains spend more time on dirt than tar...

 

[Rolfe]

We wouldn't. Battery tech was simply not there for way too long. Energy density of oil is damn high. You can stop that wishful thinking about nonexistent road not taken. It never existed. (You'd have more luck with electrical trains and city mass transport)

As for longevity, given current world, make it four or five decades. Assuming known lithium deposits are even sufficient and eventually better replacement is found. (Recycling gets you only so far)

That doesn't make a lot of sense. Of course it wasn't possible to develop EVs until practical battery technology had been developed, so the ICE was inevitable under the prevailing conditions. It's the refusal to move on now that it has been developed that's perverse. Continually running ever more desperate God-of-the-gaps scenarios where we simply  must continue to use the ICE indefinitely. It's like clinging to magnetic tape once the CD has been developed, or insisting that 35mm film is the way forward despite digital cameras.

You obviously don't have a clue about either the mineral resources of the planet or the capabilities of recycling. It has been calculated how long it will be before mining lithium is no longer necessary and it's surprisingly short.

No technology lasts forever. The ICE has had a good long run and given sterling service, but its run is nearing its end. No doubt the EV's run will come to an end in time too. But you can be sure of one thing. When that time comes, we will not be returning to the ICE age. That will be a dot in the rear view mirror of humanity by then.

 

[acbytesla]

If chance hadn't caused the ICE to be preferentially developed during the 20th century, nobody would even be talking about the things now. We'd be sitting here with a fully-developed EV economy and nobody would even be thinking "there are applications electric cars can't cope with, we need to develop a whole new (wildly inefficient, polluting) propulsion system to do these jobs."

Of course it's not going to happen overnight, but the writing is on the wall for the ICE. People will go on using them for a decade or two more, I can't predict exactly how long, but pouring more money into further marginal refinement of a dying technology is bonkers.

I'm sorry, you are just wrong about this. Chance had very little to do with it. State of the art rechargeable battery technology for a hundred years has been heavy lead acid. We're talking 30kwh per KG. Not the 200 to 300 of a modern EV.
The improvements in battery chemistry didn't come about by chance. It also didn't improve because of a lack of interest. They had been trying to make a better battery for a century without much improvement.

Science and technology had to improve first. Things like the transistor, the integrated circuit, the scanning transmission electron microscope, computer modeling and now AI.. Everything builds upon itself. The tools to get there simply hadn't been invented.

 

[Rolfe]

I think we're saying the same thing. I was referring to the chance of history, the chance of the way science developed. The ICE was inevitable under the circumstances. But, in a parallel universe where somehow battery technology was cracked much sooner, nobody would be demanding that we invent the ICE.

 

[bruto]

Cables are lossy. There is attenuation over distance. And in Australia, road trains drive on dirt, as well as on tarmac.

This is less the case these days. Not too long ago, I was on a town panel that was considering our town as the land destination for a planned high voltage DC cable that was to be laid down the tectonic crease of Lake Champlain from Canada. Alas, the plan was nixed, not for its practicality, but it seems largely for reasons of politics, in favor of the usual high-voltage AC overhead line elsewhere in the state (Too bad, as our little town would have gotten a big rental landfall). But from what I heard, this scheme can be very practical indeed, with very little loss, in part because inductive loss is not such a factor, and it requires only a single positive conductor. This was not a very practical idea until recently, when efficient solid state devices are able to convert the power into useable AC, but it is doable right now.

I agree that at the momentary level, when battery technology was so poor, it made sense to work on improving the ICE engine. No doubt things would have been a little better if more engineering energy had been directed at electric development, just as they would have been better if they had been directed at better mass transit, but they weren't, and part of the reason is that many of the peripheral developments had not occurred. Solid state electronics help in all sorts of ways, especially in making it possible for various high voltages to be used that aren't convenient for a battery alone. But remember that before 1920, much of the technology of electric cars had been well developed. You could take a 1920 Owen Magnetic, and if you had a good enough battery and the electronics needed to output 24 volts, you could replace the engine-generator on it and you'd have an electric-driven car complete with regenerative braking. Improvements in motor design and efficiency no doubt would help too, but it's mostly an issue of battery output.

 

[acbytesla]

I think we're saying the same thing. I was referring to the chance of history, the chance of the way science developed. The ICE was inevitable under the circumstances.

My nitpick is that I don't see it as chance. They followed the science in front of them. Just as inventors and scientists do today.

But, in a parallel universe where somehow battery technology was cracked much sooner, nobody would be demanding that we invent the ICE.

Maybe, but I don't speculate about imaginary universes. I live in this one.

 

[dirtywick]

I couldn't disagree more. Eventually maybe. It's going to take decades to make that transition. Improving fuel efficiency in ICE engines means two things. One, is less money for the same amount of work. And two, less CO2 emissions. Better for the environment.

imo there’s not a whole lot of gains to be made with ice efficiency. it’s old tech they’ve been working on for a very long time.