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Top 5 Reasons the Democrats Lost the Election

3) Trans issues didn't play much of a role in the election. I generally don't listen to political speeches, but I don't recall Harris ever advocating biological males competing in women's sports.
On the contrary, "trans issues" were, arguably, the decisive factor in the election. According to a post-election survey of voters conducted by a Democratic polling firm, the statement "Kamala Harris is focused more on cultural issues like transgender issues rather than helping the middle class" was ranked the most important reason for rejecting Harris among swing voters who voted for Trump.

Edited by jimbob: 
 
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On the contrary, "trans issues" were, arguably, the decisive factor in the election. According to a post-election survey of voters conducted by a Democratic polling firm, the statement "Kamala Harris is focused more on cultural issues like transgender issues rather than helping the middle class" was ranked the most important reason for rejecting Harris among swing voters who voted for Trump.
I see you have fallen for the anti trans BS ads that Trump spent a million on.
 
On the contrary, "trans issues" were, arguably, the decisive factor in the election. According to a post-election survey of voters conducted by a Democratic polling firm, the statement "Kamala Harris is focused more on cultural issues like transgender issues rather than helping the middle class" was ranked the most important reason for rejecting Harris among swing voters who voted for Trump.

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Imagine thinking that something a Trump voter believes has anything to do with reality.
 
How did you manage to get from me posting the results of a survey to me falling for an ad campaign?

It was a survey of what Trump voters believe. You should have just posted a video of a water skiing squirrel. It would have given us exactly as much insight into reality and at least been entertaining.
 
Let us be clear:

Harris was at no point a Trans Right advocate, she just failed to defang this accusation coming from Trump and the Media. The "trans agenda" BS was a complete fabrication from the Right, and they hammered it home until it stuck.

Harris failed not because she supported unpopular policies, but because her opponent made people believe she did.
 
On the contrary, "trans issues" were, arguably, the decisive factor in the election. According to a post-election survey of voters conducted by a Democratic polling firm, the statement "Kamala Harris is focused more on cultural issues like transgender issues rather than helping the middle class" was ranked the most important reason for rejecting Harris among swing voters who voted for Trump.

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Interesting survey. The first thing that caught my eye is that being too pro-Israel, supporting Covid lockdowns and allowing too many abortions were way down the list across the board, and other issues such as crime and taxes were also relatively unimportant. It was all about the government not doing enough to 'help' the middle and lower classes. Immigrants are apparently bad for the economy, and 'cultural issues' are a distraction from what Harris should have been promising, even lower inflation and more jobs for real Americans.

They chose Trump because he promised to do more. And as every swing voter knows, the policitan who promises the most will always deliver on those promises - even if common sense and his previous record says he won't.

When you look at the actual numbers, you have to wonder why so many think the Biden/Harris adminstration wasn't doing enough. Inflation in October this year was practically the same as it was under Trump in 2018 (2.6% vs 2.5%), and is still on a downward slope. So why do they think Trump will do better? It's almost as if they don't know the facts, and are just going by what Trump tells them.

On immigration there seems to be a similar disconnect with reality - which is that Biden has deported more immigrants in a single term than any other president since George W. Bush. The difference between Biden and Trump is that Biden has been turning more away at the border rather than expelling them after they enter the US - despite Trump's failed promise to build a wall to keep them out. Once again, it's like these swing voters don't know the facts, and are just assuming that when Trump says something it must be true.

On cultural issues, I see no evidence that Biden and Harris have focussed on them to the detriment of helping the middle class - unless you consider that eg. transgender people are somehow separate from the middle class and so don't deserve help. Such thinking comes off as rather seflish and possibly even bigoted, which I'm sure doesn't apply to swing voters. The logical conclusion is that once again they have fallen for a narrative that doesn't match reality.

So what this survey is really telling us is that swing voters are inclined to believe a serial liar and convicted criminal over the truth. Knowing what we do about humans in general, this is unsurprising. How many of us ever bothered to invest a few seconds of our precious time researching the facts? Whether liberal, conservative or 'independent', few of us are willing to be guided by the actual numbers - lest it clash with our ideological preconceptions.
 
Harris should have taken the border crisis seriously

Harris should have frankly acknowledged that a solid majority of Americans are worse off now than they were four years ago
Are these issues really that serious? I'm not a US citizen, politician or economist, so I might be not aware of the real problems that the Americans have, however according to many sources these problems are somewhat exaggerated, and complete elimination of these things might cause far more damage than good.

For example, illegal immigrants are good for the economy and they commit crimes at lower rates than native-born citizens. Also Illegal border crossings have declined on average in recent times.

Inflation has been largely decreased and stabilized recently. Also a small amount of inflation is actually sign of healthy growing economy. Deflation is more dangerous than inflation.

After all, the US president isn't a magician with a magic wand. He can't just do miracles, these things require trade-offs and a lot of time.
 
They chose Trump because he promised to do more. And as every swing voter knows, the policitan who promises the most will always deliver on those promises - even if common sense and his previous record says he won't.
Yes, that's the issue, the US president isn't a magician with a magic wand. He can't just do miracles, these things require a lot trade-offs, a lot of time and a lot of work. Unfortunately, people want to hear sweet lies or exaggerations.
 
When you look at the actual numbers, you have to wonder why so many think the Biden/Harris adminstration wasn't doing enough. Inflation in October this year was practically the same as it was under Trump in 2018 (2.6% vs 2.5%), and is still on a downward slope. So why do they think Trump will do better? It's almost as if they don't know the facts, and are just going by what Trump tells them.

IMO there are a few elements to this.

The headlines were full of stories about how quickly prices were rising when inflation peaked a couple of years ago. People remember this and so they think that inflation is still high. They also misremember how much things cost before the inflation blip. They may remember that eggs were $2 a dozen and gas was $2 a gallon but that may have been years or decades ago.

People remember that prices have gone up, but they forget that their wages have also risen. That's because they deserved the pay rise but the price rises were beyond their control. Even though they are no worse off in real terms (or perhaps even better off), they feel worse off.

A lot of people are worse off because the economic benefits have come very unequally. A significant proportion of people, typically those who were already poorly off, have seen their standard living fall due to their wages not keeping pace with inflation.

So even if 60% of people are better off, a significant proportion of them either don't feel better off and/or blame the government for the increased prices whilst congratulating themselves for their increased income.
 
It's a 101 distraction move: the problem is not that prices rise and fall, it's that most people get poorer while it happens while others double their net worth in the process.

what we need is actual market competition, which means atomizing the big players in any market until their shares is so tiny that they can no longer set prices.
 
On the contrary, "trans issues" were, arguably, the decisive factor in the election. According to a post-election survey of voters conducted by a Democratic polling firm, the statement "Kamala Harris is focused more on cultural issues like transgender issues rather than helping the middle class" was ranked the most important reason for rejecting Harris among swing voters who voted for Trump.
Given that transgender issues affect a small minority of the population, it's difficult to believe that large numbers of people based their voting decisions on them. Did they otherwise believe that there was little difference between the candidates? Or that Harris was superior on most issues but that this one issue over-rode that?
 
Given that transgender issues affect a small minority of the population, it's difficult to believe that large numbers of people based their voting decisions on them. Did they otherwise believe that there was little difference between the candidates? Or that Harris was superior on most issues but that this one issue over-rode that?

I fear it is entirely possible that large number of people decided to pick this tiny issue as the excuse for placing their vote.
Most voters are extreme egoists when Election time comes, and a weak signal that you might support a tiny minority is a strong signal that you won't support the vast majority, at least in the minds of way too many:
pure Availability Bias makes it feel like the Trans Community has just appeared out of nowhere, and suddenly they get to go the the front of the queue?!? Not on MY watch !!!

never mind that the goal was to just let the Trans Community join the queue openly, nothing more. But sharing a privilege feels for a majority of Americans like losing a privilege.
 
Given that transgender issues affect a small minority of the population, it's difficult to believe that large numbers of people based their voting decisions on them.
The loss of female safe spaces would affect 50% of the population. You may not believe that would be the inevitable result of self ID, but for those that do it is a significant issue.
 
The headlines were full of stories about how quickly prices were rising when inflation peaked a couple of years ago. People remember this and so they think that inflation is still high. They also misremember how much things cost before the inflation blip. They may remember that eggs were $2 a dozen and gas was $2 a gallon but that may have been years or decades ago.
I think people also have some psychological expectations about what the remedies ought to look like here. Lots of peoples are thinking "When are prices going to come back down?!" and the distant technocrat says "Never, that's not how this works."

I mean, I still feel like the bill is too high when I go grocery shopping, and I will probably still think so even if/when my real wages catch up to inflation. That will only change after I become accustomed to paying more, which is probably just down to repeated exposure. Or maybe my brain is too old and that will never change. Every time I saw my step-mother's mother, she'd ask me "Do you know how much a subway ride cost when I was young? A NICKEL," and then kind of shake her head in a way that suggested that she thought the whole world had gone crazy. Number too big.
 
I think people also have some psychological expectations about what the remedies ought to look like here. Lots of peoples are thinking "When are prices going to come back down?!" and the distant technocrat says "Never, that's not how this works."

I mean, I still feel like the bill is too high when I go grocery shopping, and I will probably still think so even if/when my real wages catch up to inflation. That will only change after I become accustomed to paying more, which is probably just down to repeated exposure. Or maybe my brain is too old and that will never change. Every time I saw my step-mother's mother, she'd ask me "Do you know how much a subway ride cost when I was young? A NICKEL," and then kind of shake her head in a way that suggested that she thought the whole world had gone crazy. Number too big.
Fun fact: Reagan won a landslide re-election in 1984 with an inflation rate almost double what it is now. Somehow, the electorate 40 years ago was able to take a rational look had how things had improved from four years previous, and even though they weren’t perfect, didn’t punish the incumbent for it.

Probably the biggest change between now and then is a media landscape dominated by right wing propaganda and a general desire for generating clickbait vs reporting the facts.
 
I'm not some intellectually superior so-called 'economist', but I do know one thing - the goverment is to blame for all the economic pain we are suffering. If we just eliminated federal taxes inflation would drop to zero and nobody would go hungry. How do I know this? The Federal budget for 2024 is $6.8 trillion. There are ~132,508,000 household in the US, so that means every family could have another $5132.00 in their pockets every year - if it wasn't stolen from them by the jackbooted thugs in government. Imagine what you could do with all that money, and no inflation too! (y)
Yes the government is to blame, because it spends more money than it takes in, since Bill balanced the budget.
Trumps tax cuts are an important factor in the inflation we have seen lately. So are Bushes tax cuts.
Where will we get the money to provide for defense and seal the border, if those are things we actually want to do.
Also the governement owes me about 40K per year as well as medical insurance, things I have already paid for.
 

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