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Cont: 2024 Election Thread part 3

Trump: "Guys like Adam Schifty Schiff, these are corrupt people. Watermelon head. He's got the smallest neck I've ever seen. I don't know how the hell it can hold up that enlarged watermelon head. What an ugly guy both inside and out."

"We don't have a global warming problem. They don't use that term anymore because as you can see, it's very cool out here today.
 
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Admitting defeat?

"It's going bad. And it can never get fixed because we're never gonna get the right people in because of what they do with the elections."
 
These last few days have given me a small glimmer of hope that the election might actually go the right way. Meaning HARRIS, of course.
 
Trump has been pivoting hard to "They're cheating again", "The Democrats are demons" and "The press are evil so don't trust them"

He thinks he's lot and is priming the Steal 2 pump.
 
Andy_Ross said:
Trump: "Guys like Adam Schifty Schiff, these are corrupt people. Watermelon head. He's got the smallest neck I've ever seen. I don't know how the hell it can hold up that enlarged watermelon head. What an ugly guy both inside and out."

"We don't have a global warming problem. They don't use that term anymore because as you can see, it's very cool out here today.
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Along with explaining why relying on tariffs to support the government isn't the greatest idea, you'd think that by now someone would have told him about the difference between weather and climate. Of course, knowing or admitting that wouldn't be useful to him, since he relies entirely on the same stubborn ignorance in the people he's trying to gull.
 
Andy_Ross said:
Trump has been pivoting hard to "They're cheating again", "The Democrats are demons" and "The press are evil so don't trust them"

He thinks he's lot and is priming the Steal 2 pump.
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I wonder if he'd be able to generate the backing that he did on Jan 6. After all, he was still President at the time. Will he still be holding rallies? What would be the point, except to protest? Of course, he has that right, but then you're getting into some tricky territory. Maybe he could dance around calling for another insurrection, but I'm sure his guest speakers would be explicit.
 
angrysoba said:
A lot of stock is put in this poll...
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When I said I didn't understand why so much stock is put on the latest poll, I meant the latest poll generally, and I was just using the Selzer poll as an example. I should have written "whatever the latest poll is." My fault. I was unclear.

But that said, regarding the Selzer poll...
angrysoba said:
...because, as Silver pointed out, most pollsters are herding meaning their polls are probably not that accurate.
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Herding implies that the polls will be closer to each other than they should be. Whether that means they will be more or less accurate than truly independent polls is less clear. Arguably, "herding" is just another form of modeling, the polls incorporating outside information. That, after all, is what Nate Silver and the other modelers do, and that, we have good reason to believe results in better predictions.

My problem with herding is that it is not the pollsters job, and firms that do this without disclosing it are essentially committing fraud. Saying that you polled 800 people when you actually polled 1600 and threw the first 800 away is a material misstatement of your methodology, that is, fraud.

If this practice is as widespread as Nate says it is, then the polling industry is in deep trouble, not unlike where the field of experimental psychology was 10 or 15 years ago, when a vast swath of the field's output was irreplicable because of practitioners' widespread abuse of statistical and experimental methodology.
angrysoba said:
In this case Selzer’s poll seems to be an outlier. That could be because it is not very good. But given Silver’s rating of her poll, her numbers are at least going to be fairly good.
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This seems to be confusing methodological quality with precision of results. If Selzer's methodology is good, then her results should be accurate in the long run. But compared to pollsters who herd, her results will be more variable from poll to poll due to random error. That implies that when she publishes an outlier poll, you should be more skeptical of it, not less. As Nate wrote: (1) Selzer is not afraid to be wrong, and (2) this time she probably is.
angrysoba said:
Now, does it mean Harris will win Iowa? No! Or at least probably not but that is not so important. What is important is that polls in one place are not completely independent of polls elsewhere. A very good showing in Iowa, given the demographics, is likely to translate as good in Michigan and Wisconsin. That, coupled with good numbers from another good polling organization, NYT/ Siena in Pennsylvania means that Harris can be considered having a pretty good chance in the election. Silver stil puts it at around 50-50 but way better than the chance that Polymarket gives Harris.
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Silver's model is currently giving Trump a 52% chance of winning, Polymarket has him at 54%, and the RCP betting market average is 53%. The markets and the forecast models have converged.
 
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alfaniner said:
I wonder if he'd be able to generate the backing that he did on Jan 6. After all, he was still President at the time. Will he still be holding rallies? What would be the point, except to protest? Of course, he has that right, but then you're getting into some tricky territory. Maybe he could dance around calling for another insurrection, but I'm sure his guest speakers would be explicit.
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Also this time the Vice President is slightly less likely than Pence was to even consider attempting to overturn the results in favor of Trump.
 
Do the latest Jeff Epstein tapes count as an October surprise since it is November?
We all knew he was best buds with Epstein so no surprise there, but the amount of detail is hard to minimize.
I'm puzzled why the Trumpists, who never met a conspiracy theory they didn't like, don't jump on the suspicious connection between Epstein's 'suicide' and Trump's rise to power. Course the same people really do think that all of Putin's rivals have a hard time not falling out of windows...
 
And this is why the rape or incest exception for abortion is so useless

www.theledger.com

Not believed: Charged with filing false report, Polk teen captured own evidence during rape

PBS NewsHour reported on Lakeland' s Taylor Cadle, who was charged with filing a false report at age 12 after accusing her adoptive father of rape.
www.theledger.com

LAKELAND — Less than an hour after being raped by her adoptive father along the side of a country road, the 13-year-old girl stood in the darkness, clutching the cell phone that held video and photographic evidence of his crime.

Preparing to dial 911, the girl paused, thinking back to a year earlier, when she had gone to law enforcement to report Henry Cadle’s sexual abuse, only to have an investigator from the Polk County Sheriff’s Office accuse her of lying.
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jimbob said:
And this is why the rape or incest exception for abortion is so useless

www.theledger.com

Not believed: Charged with filing false report, Polk teen captured own evidence during rape

PBS NewsHour reported on Lakeland' s Taylor Cadle, who was charged with filing a false report at age 12 after accusing her adoptive father of rape.
www.theledger.com
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Exactly. How do you know SA survivors were really abused? How do you know the woman who just sufferd a miscarriage didn't really have a backyard abortion? And that's before getting into (as we all know) all the situations where restrictive abortion laws lead to injury and death.

In other news, Norwegian media just reported that a survey indicates 50% (!) of young Norwegian men would've voted for Dump had they had the power to vote in US elections. And not to tout our own horn, but we're kinda known for being the sane voices in the room. The virus of populist, postfact authoritarianism is spreading.

Harris has to win this election.
 
Elon says

Elon Musk
@elonmusk


Those are their stated goals!

Unless @realDonaldTrump wins, this will be the last election.

The Dems will legalize all the illegals in swing states, so there be no more swing states. America will become a one-party, deep blue socialist state.
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I noticed on TwiX the top trending #TrumpIsGoingDown has been replaced by the top tier banner We Stand for Trump. Fine, the owner can do what he wants with the site. In a few days that one and Truth Social are going to suffer a great letdown (I'm hoping!)
 
Safe-Keeper said:
Exactly. How do you know SA survivors were really abused? How do you know the woman who just sufferd a miscarriage didn't really have a backyard abortion? And that's before getting into (as we all know) all the situations where restrictive abortion laws lead to injury and death.

In other news, Norwegian media just reported that a survey indicates 50% (!) of young Norwegian men would've voted for Dump had they had the power to vote in US elections. And not to tout our own horn, but we're kinda known for being the sane voices in the room. The virus of populist, postfact authoritarianism is spreading.

Harris has to win this election.
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I don't know what it is about men, especially young men, that so many are drawn to authoritarianism but so many are.
It certainly explains Trump's lead among men, especially white men.
 
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