Cont: The sinking of MS Estonia: Case Reopened Part VI

[Andy_Ross]

There is a vertical tear as well as a horizontal one. Or are you of the opinion that "water cannot penetrate a vertical tear". Anything to avoid admitting you are incorrect.

It is above the waterline

 

[JayUtah]

I certainly did not claim that nuclear waste melted the car ramp doors. I could certainly see that the stern ramp was opened by crew to let out noxious fumes. Ruotsalainen believes the stern ramp was opened completely near the Dagö bank near Hiiumaa and two military trucks dumped, based on his firsthand examination of a sonar printout when he was an eighteen-year-old Swedish navy intern shortly after the disaster. Given the historical smuggling of rare and nuclear materials, his belief is perfectly feasible.

No amount of frantic hand waving changes the fact that you quoted a joke site, subsequently tried to prove cesium could melt steel, and are now desperately trying to make the joke come true.

 

[JayUtah]

No, he was saying that of course Sweden should take over as Estonia was only a little country, even though the ship was under its flag and crew.


This goes back to the arrogance of Bill Clinton and his chums.

No. You quoted him on points of forensic engineering as if he were an authority. He is not.

 

[JayUtah]

Americans have a great sense of humour and of course they understand irony and satire. They just haven't grown up with the type of schoolboy stuff Brits have. Brits have never quite come out of the playground, so whilst Americans love Superman and Batman, Brits have Roy of the Rovers and Beryl the Peril as their superheroes. It's an anti-hero thing in some ways.

No, Vixen, you were the only one who didn’t get the joke.

 

[Mojo]

I could certainly see that the stern ramp was opened by crew to let out noxious fumes.

From an office in Old Queen Street?

 

[JayUtah]

But it is not actually a joke. People really can't grasp the type of smuggling that was going on.

Cesium melting the ramp was your claim. You cited to an obvious joke site to support your claim.

 

[Vixen]

So I just took a closer look at your calculations, and you say the midpoint is 113.5 nautical miles from the start. If you are saying that they were within 21 nautical miles, then you are good with an 18.5% tolerance range? That's ridiculously high for something with such 'military precision.' By the way, you would also want to term this as accuracy, not precision.

Söderarm is 73nm from wreck, Tallinn 94 nm. The full distance Tallinn to Söderarm is 163nm. The mathematical halfway point is 83nm.* In other words 21nm or 10nm from the Söderarm side of the midpoint and 11 from the Tallinn end.

10 nm is roughly within 6% of the entire journey. As an analogy, if it was based on one hour, say, rather than distance, then 6% would be equivalent to a time frame of 3.6 minutes either side of the allotted expected time. Which is pretty tight. Bearing in mind the foibles of the waves and the wind speed.

In case you are asking, how come it doesn't add up to 73 + 94 = 167, this is because in Steve Morse's distance calculator, he adjusts for the fact that latitude is only exactly 60nm per 1º at the Equator. Due to earth being globe-shaped, his distance calculations include an adjustment for latitudes and longitudes further north and south of the equator. So one short journey might add up to X nm and a continuation, to Y nm, but the entire journey combined, X + Y might throw out a curve ball result based on this inherent mathematical adjustment.

 

[Mojo]

Söderarm is 73nm from wreck, Tallinn 94 nm. The full distance Tallinn to Söderarm is 163nm. The mathematical halfway point is 83nm.* In other words 21nm or 10nm from the Söderarm side of the midpoint and 11 from the Tallinn end.

10 nm is roughly within 6% of the entire journey. As an analogy, if it wass based on one hour, say, rather than distance, then 6% would be equivalent to a time frame of 3.6 minutes either side of the allotted expected time. Which is pretty tight. Bearing in mind the foibles of the waves and the wind speed.

In case you are asking, how come it doesn't add up to 73 + 94 = 167, this is because in Steve Morse's distance calculator, he adjusts for the fact that latitude is only exactly 60nm per 1º at the Equator. Due to earth being globe-shaped, his distance calculations include an adjustment for latitudes and longitudes further north and south of the equator. So one short journey might add up to X nm and a continuation to Y nm, but the entire journey combined, X + Y might throw out a curve ball result based on this inherent mathematical adjustment.

It's not much of a clear message if all this wibbling about is necessary to make it look as if it was exactly half way.

 

[Vixen]

It's highly unusual for a ro-ro ferry to be permitted to sail without its bow visor lowered, locked and it good repair. Björkmann may be alluding to the MS Saga Star, mentioned in the various reports as a comparison vessel. When the Saga Star's visor actuators were damaged, the visor was removed and the ship was allowed to sail without it temporarily. This is the only instance of which I'm aware.

The details are salient. MS Saga Star was half the tonnage of MS Estonia. The permit under which it was allowed to sail while its bow visor was being repaired required the route to be adjusted to keep the vessel in calm coastal waters, the vessel's speed to be limited to wakeless, and the schedule to depend on weather. Under no circumstances do ro-ro ferries sail their normal schedule and routes with the bow visor missing or raised.

I wasn't referring to either Björkmann or MS Saga Star. I was referencing
photos I have seen myself. Of course it is negligent to fail to lower the bow visor. But as I pointed out, MS Estonia had barely left the coastal region of Estonia just as she reached the way point where she turned WNW towards Stockholm, she only reached international waters after 22 nm.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

I certainly did not claim that nuclear waste melted the car ramp doors. I could certainly see that the stern ramp was opened by crew to let out noxious fumes. Ruotsalainen believes the stern ramp was opened completely near the Dagö bank near Hiiumaa and two military trucks dumped, based on his firsthand examination of a sonar printout when he was an eighteen-year-old Swedish navy intern shortly after the disaster. Given the historical smuggling of rare and nuclear materials, his belief is perfectly feasible.

Do you believe him? And do you suspect these were two military trucks you insist were loaded last of all?

What makes you think the vehicles were loaded at the stern?

Have you ever actually read the JAIC report? Serious question.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

I can't imagine the level of hubris it takes to steadfastly believe that every single other person in this thread, not to mention all the actual experts who did the original investigation & the new investigation, are wrong but I'm right despite having no training, knowledge or experience of the field.

 

[JayUtah]

I wasn't referring to either Björkmann or MS Saga Star. I was referencing
photos I have seen myself. Of course it is negligent to fail to lower the bow visor. But as I pointed out, MS Estonia had barely left the coastal region of Estonia just as she reached the way point where she turned WNW towards Stockholm, she only reached international waters after 22 nm.

You’ve been silently quoting Björkmann for everything else today having to do with ro-ro ferries. And now you fall back for evidence only you have seen for this “usual” practice. You’re lying.

 

[Vixen]

Without acknowledging that you had previously and wrongly claimed it weighed 15 kg.

A couple of posters had already corrected it.

If I then replied 55 tonnes to another poster who asked how much it weighed, then it is an acknowledgement and a correction.

Are we really going to get bogged down in trivia once again?

 

[zooterkin]

A couple of posters had already corrected it.

If I then replied 55 tonnes to another poster who asked how much it weighed, then it is an acknowledgement and a correction.

Another lie. That is not what happened. You are aware we can just look up in the thread and see your posts?

I wonder if she thought the bow visor is something else entirely. Like I have no frickin clue how anyone could think that massive chunk of steel only weighs* 15kg. And she brought its weight up deliberately. I do no think it was an oops I meant tons moment.

*yeah I know technically kg is not a UOM for weight

With the casing it weighs 55 tonnes.

 

[Vixen]

And wrongly so.

...because post hoc, ergo propter hoc ...

 

[JayUtah]

A couple of posters had already corrected it.

If I then replied 55 tonnes to another poster who asked how much it weighed, then it is an acknowledgement and a correction.

Are we really going to get bogged down in trivia once again?

But you claimed you acknowledged the error. That was a lie. You tried to spin an answer that made it sound like you were still somehow right. And yes we’re going to bog down in pointing out your lies as long as you keep lying.

 

[JayUtah]

...because post hoc, ergo propter hoc ...

No, because physics you don’t understand.

 

[Vixen]

It's impossible not to notice how you try to make the delay by the Finns in notifying the Swedes sound as if it's somehow Sweden's fault.

It's a handy reminder of what an honest and unbiased reporter of facts you aren't.

Nobody said it is Sweden's fault. A communications block meant Stockholm MRCC - which has a major naval base BTW with helicopters at the ready in 15 minutes notice - prevented more help from arriving earlier. The water temperature was a mild 10ºC. Hypothermia was not inevitable but for time delay.

 

[Vixen]

Nope, you claimed that "the bow visor in the scheme of things is tiny, just 15 kg", and then, when challenged on that posted, "With the casing it weighs 55 tonnes." You didn't, as you claim, acknowledge that describing the visor as weighing 15kg was an error, you invented a "casing" that weighed 54,985kg in an attempt to reconcile your claim with (something like) reality without actually acknowledging the error.

For crying out loud. I described the bow visor and its weight in full in direct response to a question. What more do you want. Hari-kiri on national tv?

But let's keep claiming I never said what I did say for the next ten pages.

 

[Vixen]

How heavy are you imagining these bolts and screws to have been? What is really perplexing, however, is your preference for imagination over facts.

So glad to see you think you have scored a point. Enjoy the rare moment.