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Brexit: Now What? Part IV

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Tolls said:
As for Android phones that can read the chip in the passport, I'm not sure they can all do that? Doesn't it require the same thing in the phone that Android Pay needs?

As for the issue with iPhones, Bob doesn't know how to do iOS work, so that's why.
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And it wouldn't work for me as i don't have any iOS nor Android device. (From mobile devices I got W10 notebook and Lumia 830)
 
ceptimus said:
Don't forget that Ireland does more trade with the UK alone than it does with the entire remainder of the EU. Ireland doesn't really want a border that makes trade more difficult either, no matter where it's physically located.


From a trade point of view, it would make more sense for any trade border to be located between Ireland and mainland Europe - but of course that won't happen as it would be politically unacceptable both to Ireland and every other remaining EU country.
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Utter rubbish. Where do you people get these lies from? Ireland does very nearly as much trade with Belgium alone as it does with the UK...

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/exports-by-country
 
ceptimus said:
Sorry, I should have checked before posting. You need to consider imports and services as well as exports, but still, I was wrong even when you consider those too.
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When it comes to imports, the UK has a trade surplus with Ireland. So I think any trade border will hurt the UK more than Ireland.
 
Francesca R said:
I don't think you understand Northern Irish unionism/loyalism very well if yiu write something that naive.

(Maybe because you're politically opposed to it?)
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I understand it perfectly well. They may well have the will to bring NI to a standstill but they no longer have the capablility.
 
Aber said:
Ah, isn't this the argument that Brexiteers are accused of making vis-a-vis the EU? :D
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Yes. :D

And its not even true. The UK has a trading deficit with the EU when it comes to goods only, but a trade surplus in services. So they are frankly in trouble when it comes Brexit unless they stay in the SM because FTAs don't cover services.
 
It doesn’t matter about trade surpluses or deficits. A smaller surplus is the same hit to growth as a bigger deficit. exports. A smaller surplus is the same hit to growth as a bigger deficit. There is no sense (outside Donald Trump land) in which when you start with a deficit and then increase protectionist barriers you “win” (or is that “win easy”?)

It is lose lose for all parties. The ones for whom trade (not net trade) is a higher fraction of output are hurt the most. That is all.
 
Francesca R said:
It doesn’t matter about trade surpluses or deficits. A smaller surplus is the same hit to growth as a bigger deficit. exports. A smaller surplus is the same hit to growth as a bigger deficit. There is no sense (outside Donald Trump land) in which when you start with a deficit and then increase protectionist barriers you “win” (or is that “win easy”?)

It is lose lose for all parties. The ones for whom trade (not net trade) is a higher fraction of output are hurt the most. That is all.
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In this context it will be the UK who hurts the most, because after Brexit the Irish will still be in a single market with 30 other countries and part of FTAs negotiated between the EU and around 60 other countries.

The UK won't.
 
Francesca R said:
It doesn’t matter about trade surpluses or deficits. A smaller surplus is the same hit to growth as a bigger deficit. exports. A smaller surplus is the same hit to growth as a bigger deficit. There is no sense (outside Donald Trump land) in which when you start with a deficit and then increase protectionist barriers you “win” (or is that “win easy”?)

It is lose lose for all parties. The ones for whom trade (not net trade) is a higher fraction of output are hurt the most. That is all.
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Well said. Either customers will pay more, or manufactures will have their component costs increase.
 
This is, I think a repeat of old news - sabre-rattling from a company who are closely tied to the EU.

Airbus has warned it could leave the UK if the country exits the European Union single market and customs union without a transition deal.

The European planemaker said the warning was not part of "project fear, but its "dawning reality".

Airbus employs about 14,000 people at 25 different sites in the UK.

Last week, the outgoing president of the CBI said sections of UK industry faced extinction unless the UK stayed in the EU customs union.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44570931

The Brexiteer response is probably "they would say that now wouldn't they" and point out the EU support that Airbus has received over the years. They'd probably also point out that it hasn't happened until it has happened and Airbus may stay in the UK despite a no-deal Brexit - I'd argue that by then it's be too late.

This is (yet) another industry where, unless you have massive state subsidy and/or military spending then only a very few countries can afford a domestic aerospace industry. Is the UK willing (and able) post-Brexit to commit that level of resource to recreate the UK's industry or will we just be a client providing the occasional sub-assembly to projects like the F35.

Rolls-Royce are already in real trouble again - though in this case according to a couple of friends who are very close to the issue, the problems relate to poor engineering rather than anything to do with Brexit or the threat thereof - if Airbus pull out then that could be a large part of the industry gone - and that tends to be for ever. :(
 
If such industries require massive state subsidies to keep them afloat, that explains why most countries don't have them, and wouldn't want them. 'Military spending' is another way of saying 'state subsidy'.

Having worked in Rolls Royce plants, I would say their problem is a bloated management structure - not poor engineering.
 
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ceptimus said:
If such industries require massive state subsidies to keep them afloat, that explains why most countries don't have them, and wouldn't want them. 'Military spending' is another way of saying 'state subsidy'.

Having worked in Rolls Royce plants, I would say their problem is a bloated management structure - not poor engineering.
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In this case you are quite wrong.

The issue is that, as is quite typical, the design for the latest (and largest) version of the Trent was a scaled up version of the previous version. They have run into materials issues relating to overheating. It's an engineering issue.
 
ceptimus said:
If such industries require massive state subsidies to keep them afloat, that explains why most countries don't have them, and wouldn't want them. 'Military spending' is another way of saying 'state subsidy'.
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Most large economies do have aerospace industries and for an economy which is supposed to be based on expertise and innovation, high tech industries are important. You may be happy with a post-Brexit world in which the UK attempts to compete with developing economies on price - I am not.

Other countries (including the UK currently) manage to sustain an aerospace industry by working in consortia like Airbus and Eurofighter. Looks like there is a risk that we will no longer be able to do that.
 
Apparently The Times has the airbus story next to one urging job centres to push fruit picking because "it's more fun than you think"
 
Strawberry said:
In this context it will be the UK who hurts the most, because after Brexit the Irish will still be in a single market with 30 other countries and part of FTAs negotiated between the EU and around 60 other countries.
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Not really, because IIRC the negative impact of a no deal Brexit on the Republic as a % of GDP is about the same as on the UK.
 
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