• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

The robots are coming...

Or even to flip burgers as fast as human: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-43343956

At the moment skilled labour - such as on a production line - is still very much needed, humans are still often a lot cheaper than robots, and a lot more versatile. Unskilled labour, say something like a GP which is information dense but does not require human level dexterity/skill is where we will see the next culling of jobs.
 
The thing is that a A.I. would be capable of making judgements as well, and would have the multiple lifetimes of experience of an expert system backing it up. It could react quicker, and more often in a more appropriate manner than a human, who tend to make errors when stressed.
Judgements? Lifetimes of experience? It's a machine, not a human. This is really fantasy science fiction and a skeptic cannot get far because someone will always propose a fantasy prediction that "AI robots will just always do the right thing without error".


I don't know, would you rather leave your kids with a robot that will never stop watching them, never allow harm to come to them if it can possibly prevent it, and will be with them 24/7, or a human who makes mistakes that could injure them, or that could intentionally harm them, molest them, or even kill them?
A robot as a babysitter? It's a machine, not a human. It was never born into a family and would be clueless about settling childish disputes among snot-nosed kids who are fighting over ice cream. Does it punish them with electric jolts?
 
Computers are wonderful sophisticated devices that can deliver unto you the wrong answer very very quickly. As technology improves they're getting faster and faster!

My career is, in a large part, getting data out of machines so people can use it. No matter how fancy they make the machines, the need for a human interpreter doesn't go away. In fact, the more sophisticated the software, the more need for a human middleman. At higher rates of pay, too.
 
We should be able to solve any problem of errorless hyperintelligent robots taking all the jobs away from humans. We just ask one of them how to solve that problem. Then when it gives the absolutely accurate answer we assign it to make that thing happen. Then tell it to never allow that situation to occur again.

If these things are to be so incredible then get them to solve and fix any problems that they could bring. But then isn't that supposed to be built into their programming right from the start?
 
It makes sense, but I have to wonder.

Today, we have very nearly full employment. In 1982, we did not (There was a recession going on at the time.) During that period of time, a really large number of robots have been introduced, and yet, we have full employment. I used to walk through the body shop at car factories and see lots of workers. Now, I see a handful. The parking lots surrounding high capacity factories are a lot smaller than they used to be. If the plant is in a really old location, either the parking lots will be half empty, or there will be buildings, signs, fountains, or something else that are taking up spaces where parking lots used to be, because it doesn't require as many people to produce a car these days.....and yet we have nearly full employment.

Obviously, the people displaced by the robots found other things to do. Why do we think it won't happen again?


I realize that we are coming up on a phase of human history where there will soon be robots that can do darned near anything a human can do, so maybe there really is something to worry about, but, somehow, machines have been displacing people in certain jobs at least since the invention of the cotton gin, and we have always found ways to keep busy, and get paid for it. I suspect that will continue to be the case.

At least.....I hope. I don't think it is inevitable that all wealth will be concentrated in the hands of a few robot owners. I think society will find ways to adapt.
Probably the adaptation will be the Oligarchs bribing the masses to keep ruly.
 
The solution is simple: build a Luddite virus that will make robots hate technology. They'll fight it out while we slave away at work. Hooray for us?

TBF, you won't actually BE slaving away at work, it's just a shared simulation world our Robot Overlords concocted to keep you satiated while they harvest your bioelectric power.
 
This, I think, is key data, and why nearly full employment is not nearly as full as it seems.
Never has been. Since a "job" (in the modern sense of an exchange of labor for capital) came to be an absolute necessity for those not prone to thievery or born into wealth, we have been reducing the availability of jobs.

The only reason it has not been apparent is because we have been steadily reducing the classifications of who needs to have one. Children no longer are expected to have jobs- but there was a time when they were a substantial portion of the labor pool. Further, we have extended childhood into the middle of one's third decade of life with expectations of post secondary education.
We no longer expect someone who is "old" to have a job, even if they are physically hale, nor someone who is physically or mentally challenged in some way.

It seems to me that considerations of changes like that are often ignored by those who revert to the assertion that technology has "always" created more jobs than it has cost, or that "all of human history" has been one of technology creating jobs. Those kind of assertions seem to view all of history through a modern lense which fails to recognize how recent and changing the notion of a "job" is.
 
Judgements? Lifetimes of experience? It's a machine, not a human.

What is a human if not just a biological machine? Our brains are just bio-computers and our "lifetime of experience" is just data stored in our brains.

Given that, then why can't a mechanical computer with databases of "experiences" be able to do the same thing we can?

This is really fantasy science fiction and a skeptic cannot get far because someone will always propose a fantasy prediction that "AI robots will just always do the right thing without error".

No one is suggesting that an A.I. will always do the right thing, but nice strawman. In fact one of the major concerns about A.I.s is that they will end up directly competing with us in trying to achieve the goals we give them and thus do the "wrong" thing, at least in our eyes.

A robot as a babysitter? It's a machine, not a human. It was never born into a family and would be clueless about settling childish disputes among snot-nosed kids who are fighting over ice cream.

A.I. robots don't have to have directly experienced something, any more than a human does, it can be taught, and would have access to literally millions if not billions of "memories" all stored as its memory. You seem to believe that humans have some special ability that can't be replicated, a very strange idea for a skeptic.

Does it punish them with electric jolts?

:rolleyes:
 
Last edited:
We should be able to solve any problem of errorless hyperintelligent robots taking all the jobs away from humans. We just ask one of them how to solve that problem. Then when it gives the absolutely accurate answer we assign it to make that thing happen. Then tell it to never allow that situation to occur again.

If these things are to be so incredible then get them to solve and fix any problems that they could bring. But then isn't that supposed to be built into their programming right from the start?

Yeah I can't see how this situation could possibly go wrong... nope, not at all.
 
And all this automation has resulted in a US unemployment rate of 4.1%, the lowest in over 17 years.

Yeah, I have to admit, I have never heard concerns about massive numbers of displaced humans during an era of near-record low unemployment.
And the labor market has changed dramatically. Factory labor is way down, and health care is way up. Average wages have been stagnant, even declining, for a long time. Some kinds of work will never be done by machines. Child care and patient care probably are among them. But as machines take over more and more work that used to require humans, unemployment and underemployment will get worse.


And we are seeing that already.

For starters, those unemployment figures are grossly misleading, since, at least in the US, only those who are actively seeking work are counted as unemployed. Those who have given up seeking work, those who are on some sort of government assistance program, those who are making their living from the black market, and so on, are not counted as the unemployed.

Further, they don't include people worldwide, many of whom are seeing much greater rates of unemployment, even in the developed world. It's essentially cherry picking your data.

Even assuming those numbers are accurate and valid, they're still a historical blip. Unemployment has the tendency to swing wildly with changes to the nature of unemployment. When we had the swing from an agriculture-based economy to an industrial economy, there was rampant unemployment as the population re-trained and re-educated itself to work in the paradigm. Similarly, when the US economy began to shift from a manufacturing economy to a service economy, there was rampant unemployment, which is finally starting to lessen. In both cases, a new economic model provided new jobs to replace the old ones. An economy where all labour, or as close as dammit, is provided by automation will simply not have sufficient jobs available for its population to migrate to.

But even that ignores the extent of the true problem with these unemployment figures. Even with the low numbers, a great deal of those employed are employed near or below the poverty line. Workers at many of the giant corporations -- Amazon, Walmart, etc. -- already have wages so low that they are dependent on government assistance for their survival. Many people who are regularly employed still find themselves unable to afford shelter (living in their cars, couch surfing, etc.), unable to afford medical care, and in many cases even unable to avoid food without the government assistance programs that cause so many free-marketeers to whinge about "socialism" taking away their money.

And even with employees who are little different from indentured servants or slaves, these companies are still working very hard to automate their businesses and eliminate these employees entirely. Amazon has already made great strides in doing so.

So what we will see is as automation increases, we will have increasing numbers of people who simply have no way to support themselves, and as others have already noted, will end up either with a collapsing economy and society, or with a massive paradigm shift to a post-scarcity economy and social structure that many right-wing reactionaries decry with the label "socialism", as if it's some sort of looming boogeyman poised to destroy all the hold near and dear (well, it might be, since it would strip them of their life-and-death power over other humans).

We already, at this point in history, have the technology to finally begin the migration to a post-scarcity economy and culture, where extreme poverty is eliminated and everyone is guaranteed of at least the basics of survival and reasonable comfort. We already have the energy technology, and we have the beginnings of the labour technology. But so far, as a world, those with the ability to make this happen lack sufficient vision and political will to start that process. Hell, most of us lack even the political will to stop the rapid degeneration and destruction of our environment, or to reform a culture of rampant bigotry, and too many still consider beliefs in the wrong imaginary beings as sufficient justification for bloody conflict and genocide. We have the ability to end a great deal of the suffering in the world, but don't seem to have much interest in doing so.
 
Yeah I can't see how this situation could possibly go wrong... nope, not at all.

We'll make sure the robots always need humans, by building the robots to run on human blood. That way they can never wipe us out! I don't see any possible downside to this plan, do you?
 
These AI robots that will replace humans because they can do what we do and think like us...

Will they be available in different models such as "Conservative Ideology" and "Liberal Ideology" based on their personal values, likes and dislikes?
 
These AI robots that will replace humans because they can do what we do and think like us...

Will they be available in different models such as "Conservative Ideology" and "Liberal Ideology" based on their personal values, likes and dislikes?

Oh, there's an idea. Liberal billionaires can buy robots that are do-gooder types. They will build affordable housing, cook meals for the poor, repair stuff around the house, chide you to stop smoking (or buy you a pack of smokes if you beg enough). Problem solved!

ETA: Sounds like a Philip K Dick story.
 
Last edited:
And we are seeing that already.

For starters, those unemployment figures are grossly misleading, since, at least in the US, only those who are actively seeking work are counted as unemployed. Those who have given up seeking work, those who are on some sort of government assistance program, those who are making their living from the black market, and so on, are not counted as the unemployed.

Further, they don't include people worldwide, many of whom are seeing much greater rates of unemployment, even in the developed world. It's essentially cherry picking your data.

Even assuming those numbers are accurate and valid, they're still a historical blip. Unemployment has the tendency to swing wildly with changes to the nature of unemployment. When we had the swing from an agriculture-based economy to an industrial economy, there was rampant unemployment as the population re-trained and re-educated itself to work in the paradigm. Similarly, when the US economy began to shift from a manufacturing economy to a service economy, there was rampant unemployment, which is finally starting to lessen. In both cases, a new economic model provided new jobs to replace the old ones. An economy where all labour, or as close as dammit, is provided by automation will simply not have sufficient jobs available for its population to migrate to.

But even that ignores the extent of the true problem with these unemployment figures. Even with the low numbers, a great deal of those employed are employed near or below the poverty line. Workers at many of the giant corporations -- Amazon, Walmart, etc. -- already have wages so low that they are dependent on government assistance for their survival. Many people who are regularly employed still find themselves unable to afford shelter (living in their cars, couch surfing, etc.), unable to afford medical care, and in many cases even unable to avoid food without the government assistance programs that cause so many free-marketeers to whinge about "socialism" taking away their money.
.....


It's also the case that regular unemployment figures don't count "underemployment," that is, someone working three days a week who wants/needs a full-time job, or someone working as a store clerk who has teaching credentials or a master's degree. Related to that is the financial incentive large corporations have to fill their rolls with part-time people who get no benefits and have no job security.

We are well into the era of the "gig economy," in which people work multiple jobs of different kinds just to make ends meet, sometimes not very reliably.
 
It's also the case that regular unemployment figures don't count "underemployment," that is, someone working three days a week who wants/needs a full-time job,

I remember making the exact same argument in 1982, in order to demonstrate that the Reagan recession was even worse than it appeared. It was true then. It is true now. Unemployment numbers always underestimate the number of unemployed, then and now.

or someone working as a store clerk who has teaching credentials or a master's degree. Related to that is the financial incentive large corporations have to fill their rolls with part-time people who get no benefits and have no job security.

We are well into the era of the "gig economy," in which people work multiple jobs of different kinds just to make ends meet, sometimes not very reliably.

This part may have changed over the years, but I think that might be because of government policies and a general trend for heatlh care to be a bigger portion of overall cost of living than it was previously, thus making it comparatively more expensive to provide it for employees. I don't think the trend can be blamed on robots.

The point remains that we are at close to full employment now. Employers are having a hard time finding people to fill positions. It's a good market for job seekers right now, at least in Detroit. The rise of the robots has not eliminated job opportunities, even as it has eliminated specific jobs.
 
I would very much like to outsource our political ideologies to A.I.s that will act them out in infinite rounds of Ultimatum Games.
 

Back
Top Bottom