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Merged Now What?

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Aepervius said:
Nan. I think it will barely be a single digit drop barely 1%/2% if at most. Market will continue to plunge fora few hours until people realize they can snap low price stuff and bet on global market not suffering much at least initially and the price will stabilize and rise again to reasonable amount.

At this moment it is just emotional. There is really no change. It was after all only a poll.

Now if brexit is enacted in law then in 2 years time or when real that ill be anotehr story.
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I agree that it's the exit itself that will cause the serious turmoil which is why I qualified what I said with "before the leave process is over"
 
Now what? Well, one would hope reasonable minds will come to reasonable accommodations. It need not be the end of the U.K. or the end of the EU, as some are seemingly fond of prognosticating.

There is much vested interest in keeping the economic gears turning, so either side getting pissy about the situation would seem counterproductive.

One thing I did find interesting. I've heard it stated several times that "the EU is the U.K.'s largest trading partner". This is true—collectively. By individual nation, from the data I came across, the #1 purchaser of U.K. exports is the U.S.A., accounting for nearly 15% of total exports; China was at #4 with 6%. Seems to me that any loss of exports to the EU as a result of soured relations arising from the exit could be made up by increased exports to the U.S. and other non-EU countries, especially if some form of free trade deal is worked out.
 
The Don said:
The EU may need to trade with the UK but whilst the UK does 50% of their business with the EU, the EU does about 7% of their business with the UK.

A lot has fundamentally changed in the economy - we will no longer be part of the largest economic zone in the world. I will find out from my clients in the coming weeks and months whether I'll still have a business. Firms like Nissan will need to determine whether they continue to invest in the UK or whether they allow their UK operations to wind down and investment instead to go to their EU plants.
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And this is the thing the starry-eyed optimists are ignoring. The departure of manufacturers when tariffs and other policies to "protect the UK" are put in place. "No impact" believers are living in fantasy land.
 
kevsta said:
IMO when the rest of the EU starts to disintegrate again, financially and politically, the UK will look like a safe haven again.
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More wishful thinking. The EU will strengthen as a result of this outcome in my opinion. Let's wait and see.
 
Already heard that we should immediate scrap the "working hours directive"... Wonder how many people who have voted to leave are on "part time" contracts, shame they'd lose their paid holidays and sick leave....
 
Corsair 115 said:
One thing I did find interesting. I've heard it stated several times that "the EU is the U.K.'s largest trading partner". This is true—collectively. By individual nation, from the data I came across, the #1 purchaser of U.K. exports is the U.S.A., accounting for nearly 15% of total exports; China was at #4 with 6%. Seems to me that any loss of exports to the EU as a result of soured relations arising from the exit could be made up by increased exports to the U.S. and other non-EU countries, especially if some form of free trade deal is worked out.
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The TTIP is being quoted as one of the (many) reasons why the EU was bad. The notion that the UK and US would come to a free trade agreement which is in the UK's favour is fanciful.

In my personal case, exporting my company's service to China or the US simply doesn't work economically because the rates I can (or used to) get in the EU were 50%-100% higher than in the U.S. and there is no market in China.
 
El Greco said:
I predict the pound will quickly return to pre-referendum levels.
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kevsta said:
So do I actually. IMO the Euro is fundamentally weaker and is actually in CTL+P mode with the ECB printing it 80billion a month currently.

its interesting that EURGBP hasnt moved that far considering, as the Euro has been walloped almost as much as GBP against the Dollar
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I don't know that it will quickly return to pre-referendum levels, but I do think it has been oversold. This is a classic panic stampede. Once the panic recedes, the smart money will see more upside on the pound at these prices.

I suspect a lot of traders were caught betting the wrong way based on the polls which were dead wrong. The YouGov "exit polls" were also dead wrong.

Britain is narrowly on course to vote to stay in the European Union, five final opinion surveys suggested last night, as the polls closed and counting began in the most fiercely fought and significant referendum in a generation.

A YouGov poll of 5,000 people released at 10pm put Remain on 52 per cent (up one per cent on its last poll) and Leave on 48. An internal poll carried out by the campaign group Leave.EU of 10,000 people over the last 48 hours suggested the same headline result.
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That last one is probably why Farage was almost ready to concede that they lost after the polls closed. I wonder why all the pollsters got it wrong?

Anyway, I'm sure some traders must have made huge losses on wrong-way bets.
 
lionking said:
More wishful thinking. The EU will strengthen as a result of this outcome in my opinion. Let's wait and see.
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you think? on what grounds? I think the floodgates just cracked open..

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-24/now-its-our-turn-geert-wilders-calls-dutch-referendum

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-24/victory-freedom-le-pen-demands-referendum-france

there is a lot of Euro-skepticism in the rest of Europe too, and it should be pretty obvious by now that Spain & Greece cannot remain on the same currency as Germany & Scandinavia forever.
 
Darat said:
Already heard that we should immediate scrap the "working hours directive"... Wonder how many people who have voted to leave are on "part time" contracts, shame they'd lose their paid holidays and sick leave....
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Yup, the predictable race to the bottom begins now......

Next to go will be environmental protections and health and safety in the workplace.
 
The Don said:
Yup, the predictable race to the bottom begins now......

Next to go will be environmental protections and health and safety in the workplace.
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This one I'm not so much worried about - our H&S regulations have always (on the whole) been stronger than the EU regulations. Do you remember when the libs and tories got into power how they were going to stop all this "H&S nonsense"? Not much happened since all the "H&S gone mad" stories the media used to print were a load of crap, often simply made up or a business using made-up H&S issues as an excuse.
 
lionking said:
And this is the thing the starry-eyed optimists are ignoring. The departure of manufacturers when tariffs and other policies to "protect the UK" are put in place. "No impact" believers are living in fantasy land.
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Not just outside EU countries. My employer, (German and a manufacturer of Wind turbines, railway systems CAT scanners) has said that it won't be investing in expansion plans if the UK left.
 
Stuart said:
Not just outside EU countries. My employer, (German and a manufacturer of Wind turbines, railway systems CAT scanners) has said that it won't be investing in expansion plans if the UK left.
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Just the start of this stupid decision.
 
At a parochial level - The B household is having kittens wondering whether their free Greek health care will remain free. If that's withdrawn it's a huge game-changer for us, possibly a 'pack up and leave' matter. **** **** ****
 
theprestige said:
I wonder if anybody in this thread will be any better at predicting what happens next than they were at predicting what just happened.
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Really though. When reading all this sky is falling bs, one must remember that far more then a skeptics board this is for the most part a politically far left echo chamber.
 
Corsair 115 said:
Now what? Well, one would hope reasonable minds will come to reasonable accommodations. It need not be the end of the U.K. or the end of the EU, as some are seemingly fond of prognosticating.

There is much vested interest in keeping the economic gears turning, so either side getting pissy about the situation would seem counterproductive.

One thing I did find interesting. I've heard it stated several times that "the EU is the U.K.'s largest trading partner". This is true—collectively. By individual nation, from the data I came across, the #1 purchaser of U.K. exports is the U.S.A., accounting for nearly 15% of total exports; China was at #4 with 6%. Seems to me that any loss of exports to the EU as a result of soured relations arising from the exit could be made up by increased exports to the U.S. and other non-EU countries, especially if some form of free trade deal is worked out.
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As a matter of fact many of trade agreements with non EU countries have been concluded by the European Union.

I really doubt that the European Union is going to grant to the UK the benefit of these treaties after the UK has left. I also doubt that the UK is going to get a preferential treatment (like those granted to Norway or Switzerland) after its departure from the EU.

This means that the UK might have to renegotiate every single trade and/or customs agreement with multiple non EU countries. And this excercise alone might be quite complicated as it will not longer be negotiated by the British Empire but by the United Kingdom (of England and Wales as Scotland and North Ireland might want to leave?).

Time will tell how things go but I guess it will not be as easy as simple minds may think...
 
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Darat said:
But there are good things to consider: after all we can immediately start building a new hospital every week, and pump millions and millions of extra cash into the NHS.......
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We will be a member of the EU, paying our membership fees, until at least 2 years from October. There is no sense in which anything much changes immediately.
 
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